197
FXUS61 KCLE 170615
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
215 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will lift
northward as a warm front tonight into Tuesday. A cold front
move across the region on Thursday. High pressure will build in
across the region by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
915 PM Update...
A few showers have developed across Wood/Ottawa/Sandusky
counties and are already showing signs of weakening as they
drift south. Made a few adjustments to PoPs for the next few
hours to reflect latest radar trends, but the forecast largely
remains unchanged. Scattered showers remain possible through
Tuesday morning with shower/thunderstorm chances increasing by
Tuesday afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
A surface high pressure continues to influence the areas
weather this afternoon, keeping conditions dry for now. Later
this evening and into the overnight hours, a shortwave trough
will move east along a quasi-zonal flow aloft, allowing for the
nearly stationary boundary over southern Ohio to lift north as a
warm front late tonight into Tuesday. Along this boundary,
frontogenetic forcing coupled with upper level support will
result in the development of showers and thunderstorms across
the area, with the exception of northwest Ohio which should
remain primarily dry. Given the diurnally unfavorable timing,
instability will be weak allowing for no severe weather
concerns. There may be a few rumbles of thunder overnight with
localized heavy rainfall. In addition, calm winds and increasing
surface moisture may result in patchy fog/low stratus across
eastern counties, but confidence is low in regards to the extent
that this may occur.

By Tuesday morning, a surge of moisture from the Gulf will push
north, increasing PWAT values to 1.5-2" across the area with
dewpoints surging into the upper 60s to low 70s in the warm sector.
Tuesday afternoon will mark the return of very humid conditions and
the start of the warming trend the area will see for the rest of the
week. Additional showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible
on Tuesday, although given the lack of instability and shear
expected to move into the area, not expecting anything organized or
severe. The best support for storm development remains closer to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast and south of the area Tuesday. For any showers
that do develop, heavy rain will be a concern as weak flow and
deepening warm cloud depths could couple with increasing PWATS and
result in very heavy rainfall with isolated training, especially
along and east of I71. To highlight this concern, WPC has maintained
a Marginal ERO for the mentioned area. Scattered showers will linger
through the overnight hours.

High temperatures on Tuesday will surge into the mid-80s for western
counties and into the mid to upper 70s for eastern counties.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight, remaining
a bit more mild on Tuesday night by dropping into the upper 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, another mid-level shortwave will push east into the
Great Lakes region as a surface low over the Missouri Valley begins
to deepen and track northeast into the region. This will place the
entire CWA in the warm sector of this low and allow for dewpoints to
surge into the 70s. This will allow for an increase in instability
of 1500-2000 J/kg, with the highest values focused across the
western CWA. Convective initiation looks to occur west of the CWA,
with storms moving into the area by Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Exact storm mode is not very clear given that the best shear is
north of the area with best CAPE in model guidance. If storms gain a
more supercell type structure, wind, hail and heavy rain will be the
primary hazards, but if the storms are more disorganized or form
into a more linear fashion, expect gusty winds and heavy rain to be
the primary concern. The best chance for any severe weather will be
across western counties as the timing further east is expected to
fall into a diurnally unfavorable time and should allow for
weakening storms for the eastern part of the area Wednesday night
into Thursday. SPC has maintained a Day 3 Slight SWO for far western
counties with a Marginal Risk elsewhere. In addition, WPC maintains
a Marginal Day 3 ERO for the entire area, highlighting the potential
for very efficient, heavy rainfall. Will continue to monitor for
changes in timing as that will impact the severe potential. High
temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the low to mid 80s.
Overnight lows will remain mild and drop into the mid to upper 60s.

By Thursday morning, a cold front associated with the aforementioned
low pressure will push east of the area allowing for conditions to
dry out across the entire area by Thursday afternoon. Highs on
Thursday will be a bit cooler, only climbing into the mid 70s to low
80s due to a northwest flow developing. By Thursday night, high
pressure will begin to push northwest from the southwestern United
States, keeping conditions dry. Overnight lows Thursday night will
be a tad cooler, dropping into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
During the long term period it will finally feel like summer has
truly arrived. A dominant ridge and surface high will settle over
the area, bringing a hot and moist airmass with it. In the recent
CPC Outlooks, the entire area is highlighted in expecting above
normal temperatures to occur. For this time of the year, normal
temperatures range from the low to mid 80s to give perspective. The
forecast highs on Friday are expected to climb into the mid 80s
before surging into the low to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
Dewpoints on those days are expecting to be in the 70s, making
conditions very muggy and allowing the heat indices to climb into
the mid to upper 90s, possibly skirting 100 degrees across western
counties. Overnight lows through the period will drop into the low
70s, providing little relief to high risk communities. In addition
to the heat, there is a potential for showers across the eastern
portion of the area on Sunday as a shortwave trough clips the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main message for aviation weather with this late night TAF
update will be mainly VFR conditions outside of scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms this morning through this evening.
There are some scattered showers down closer to central Ohio and
around the MFD area early this morning. The general expectation
for later this morning will be an increase in scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms to develop as a warm front pushes
northward across the area.

The big challenge and uncertainty with this TAF update is the
timing of heavier convection possibly impacting individual TAF
sites today. TAF updates will be more nowcasting this morning
into the afternoon and evening. We expect the most coverage of
showers and isolated heavier convection will be between 15z this
morning and 00z this evening. We have used a broad brush with
the TAF for this morning and afternoon using PROB30 groups for
-SHRA and -TSRA with brief ceilings to MVFR 3000 feet and
 reduction in visibility of 3sm to 5sm due to heavier downpours
 over the airfield. Outside of the scattered to widespread
 convection today, expect mainly VFR ceilings. Areas that see
 rainfall today may have some patchy MVFR fog 5sm along with
 some low stratus that may develop around 1500 feet.

Winds will become southerly to south- southwesterly 5 to 10
knots this morning and continue through the end of this TAF
period. We can`t rule out a brief isolated wind gust of 20 to 30
knots with any heavier thunderstorm impacting an airfield.


Outlook...Non-VFR likely with scattered to periodic showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance of
thunderstorms will be Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon over far northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region will keep
east to northeast winds 5-10 knots in place through tonight. A
weak low will move across the Ohio Valley tonight into Tuesday,
followed by a warm front. This will allow for south to southwest
flow to develop and continue through Thursday morning. Southwest
flow should tend to be around 10 to 15 knots except Wednesday
night through Thursday evening when winds will increase to 15 to
25 knots out of the southwest, then out of the west with a cold
frontal passage.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/15
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Saunders