252
FXUS61 KCLE 070550
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight before gliding east
across the local area on Tuesday. Canadian high pressure will
quickly build across the Great Lakes region Wednesday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will exit to the east tonight as an upper level trough
and surface cold front push east across the Great Lakes region. Some
prefrontal showers are possible across the western half of the
forecast area overnight tonight. Showers will overspread the region
by Tuesday as the cold front tracks across the local area. Some
isolated thunderstorms, sub-severe, will be possible with the
frontal passage as surface based CAPE increases to 500-750 J/kg.
Most if not all of the local area should receive at least 0.50
inches of rain with this system with localized pockets of 0.75-1.00
inches possible mainly along and east of I-71. The Weather
Prediction Center continues to highlight the eastern half of the
forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall in their Day 2 ERO. The cold front will exit to the
southeast Tuesday night with any lingering showers and cloud cover
diminishing during the overnight hours.

Warm overnight lows tonight in the low to mid 60s, upper 50s across
Northwest Pennsylvania. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to
be roughly 10-15 degrees cooler. Low temperatures will fall into the
mid to upper 40s Tuesday night behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure is expected to quickly build across the Great
Lakes region behind the aforementioned cold front. The combination
of these features will allow for a significant airmass change and
below normal temperatures expected through the short term. High
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected each
afternoon. Low temperatures fall into the 30s areawide. Confidence
in areas of frost developing continues Wednesday and Thursday night
with widespread areas of minimum temperatures less than 36 degrees
across inland locations across much of North Central and Northeast
Ohio and typical cold spots in Erie and Crawford Counties in
Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will generally remain overhead across much of the
Great Lakes and Northeast regions through the long term leading
to mainly dry conditions. Some uncertainty as we head into the
weekend on the exact track of an upper level low moving across
the Great Lakes region. If the low moves in the vicinity of the
region expect for precipitation chances to increased. For now,
maintained a dry forecast for now given the uncertainty.

Highs will return to near normal values in the upper 60s through
the long term with overnight in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Scattered light showers have begun to push northeast into the
area as a surge of moisture lifts north ahead of an approaching
cold front. This cold front is currently located near Chicago,
resulting in areas of non-VFR conditions. Ahead of and along the
front, the widespread VFR conditions currently being observed in
the area will gradually deteriorate to MVFR and likely IFR
visibilities and ceilings late tonight through much of Tuesday.
Tonight, lack of instability should prevent thunder occurring so
removed it from the forecast with this update, but will continue
to monitor trends in shower development. The better potential
for thunder will occur this afternoon into the evening when
enhanced forcing from the front creates a more unstable
atmosphere. Not expecting this thunder to be widespread so
handled any mention with a TEMPO. Near the end of the TAF
period, conditions will begin to improve back to VFR for the far
western terminals, which will gradually push east after this TAF
period.

South-southwest winds of 7-10 knots will persist through this
morning ahead of the cold front. As the cold front moves across
the area, winds will gradually gain a more north-northwest flow,
remaining at 7-10 knots. By 00Z Wednesday, winds will be from
the north around 10 knots, possibly a bit higher for terminals
closest to the lake.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lake effect clouds on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be departing to the east through the evening as
low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region late tonight through
Tuesday night. Winds this evening will be light at 5-10 knots out of
the southwest and increase overnight to 10-20 knots. Frontal passage
should occur Tuesday afternoon into the evening and winds will shift
to be out of the north to northwest. The winds will also increase to
15-25 knots with the strongest winds expected in the central basin.
A Small Craft Advisory will most likely be needed late Tuesday night
through midday Wednesday across the central basin. Waves will also
build to 3-6 feet during the period of increased winds. High
pressure will build in with winds and waves subsiding late
Wednesday into early Thursday with the waves response being
later into Thursday than the winds. From Thursday through the
end of the week, winds will be out of the east to northeast at
10-15 knots and decrease to 5-10 by Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23