530
FXUS61 KCLE 011134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased rain chances before sunrise this morning near the
lakeshore, and slightly increased rain chances tonight into
Friday afternoon. Also increased winds on Lake Erie this
morning through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light rain lingers near the lakeshore early this morning,
then very warm today followed by a soaking rain tonight into
Friday.

2) Cool and dry weather this weekend through mid next week.
Frost headlines are possible Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain showers overperformed this past evening and early this
morning in a zone of broad warm air advection and isentropic
ascent along and north of a warm front. This band of light rain
is gradually lifting north with the frontal boundary, but
increased POPS along the lakeshore of northern Ohio and NW PA
through 14Z this morning to reflect a slower exit. Additional
QPF will only be a trace to few hundredths of an inch.

By mid morning, any remaining showers will exit NW PA as the
area becomes firmly in the warm sector. A tightening pressure
gradient between surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic
region and a cold front approaching from the western Great Lakes
will lead to gusty SSW winds over 20 knots at times, and this
combined with 850 mb temps rising to 17-18 C will boost highs
into the low 80s this afternoon. The aforementioned cold front
is associated with a deepening mid/upper trough over the
northern Plains and northern/central Great Lakes, leading to
strong height falls over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by tonight. This trough still looks to absorb the old
cut off low that impacted the Desert Southwest earlier in the
week, but the jet support and resultant surface wave on the
frontal boundary is trending weaker. This will result in more of
a frontal passage rain event tonight as opposed to a surface
wave riding along the boundary, so QPF is trending lighter.
Nevertheless, the front will be slow to cross the region given
the strength of the ridge at the surface and aloft over the Mid
Atlantic and SE CONUS, so expect the band of rain showers to
last from tonight into Friday afternoon, only slowly ending from
NW to SE. The right entrance of a modest 80+ knot H3 jet
rounding the base of the trough also supports enough
dynamics/frontogenesis for widespread rain showers tonight into
Friday, so slightly increased POPS from 23Z this evening through
18Z Friday as the rain slowly sinks NW to SE. Minor instability
this evening could cause isolated thunder, but this will
largely be stratiform rain. Overall, looking at 0.40 to 0.80
inches of QPF across the region, with the highest amounts in NW
Ohio and near the lakeshore.

Drier air will quickly work into the region Friday evening and
Friday night, but it will be the start of a much cooler pattern
as the elongated mid/upper trough takes up residence from the
northern Plains through the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS, and
a strong Canadian high at the surface builds down across the
Great Lakes. This will lead to a chilly night Friday night, with
lows dipping into the low/mid 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The mid/upper trough and Canadian high will remain across the
Great Lakes Saturday before another reinforcing shortwave and
associated surface low tracking near Hudson Bay brings another
cold front through the region Sunday, effectively reloading the
trough and allowing an even more impressive 1025-1030 mb surface
high to build down from the Upper Midwest early next week. This
will keep cool and dry conditions in place, with temperatures
eventually averaging 10 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday.
Expect highs in the mid 60s Saturday to slightly rebound into
the upper 60s to near 70 Sunday before dropping into the upper
50s/low 60s Monday and Tuesday. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s
Monday night and Tuesday night could support the first frost of
the season in portions of interior north central and NE Ohio and
NW PA. Gradual moderation is expected by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The main message for aviation weather today is VFR conditions
are expected to continue today into this evening with high and
mid level clouds above 6000 feet through this evening. A cold
front with widespread rain showers will move in late tonight
through the end of this TAF period or 12z Friday morning. There
will be gradual lowering of ceilings after 03z this evening for
NWOH and later in time after 06z tonight NEOH and NWPA. Forecast
confidence is lower end MVFR is expected but there may be lower
into IFR towards towards the very end of the TAF period or
closer to the 09z to 12z Friday timeframe. Rain showers will
also reduce visibility 3sm to 5sm during the late night hours.
Winds will be southerly to southwesterly 8 to 13 knots later
today with afternoon gusts up to 20 knots ahead of the
approaching cold front through 00z. The winds will shift out of
the west to northwest late in the night around 10 knots late
tonight towards 12z Friday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with rain showers and lower ceilings
behind a cold front late Thursday night through late Friday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW winds will increase on Lake Erie behind a warm front this
morning, with speeds of 10-15 knots through the day. These winds
will quickly turn N and briefly reach 15-25 knots late tonight
behind a strong cold front, so issued a short-fused Small Craft
Advisory from 03-14Z Friday from the Islands to Conneaut where
criteria is most likely to be reached (winds and 3-5 foot
waves), but it will be choppy everywhere. N winds briefly
decrease to 10-15 knots Friday morning through the afternoon
before briefly nearing 20 knots again Friday evening, so another
headline may be needed Friday evening into early Friday night.

NE winds will average 5-15 knots by Saturday as high pressure
builds across the Great Lakes before turning S at 5-10 knots
early Sunday ahead of another cold front. Winds then turn W and
eventually NW behind the front late Sunday and increase to at
least 15-20 knots Sunday night into Monday, so another period of
Small Craft headlines will be possible. Getting to be that time
of year!

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for LEZ144>148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Garuckas