754
FXUS61 KCLE 301133
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for showers and isolated storms increasing slightly
across far northwest Ohio this morning. Increasing confidence
in excessive heat impacts by midweek.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Excessive heat risk increases Monday through Wednesday, with
heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 possible.

2) Active storm track on the periphery of the ridge could bring
shower/storm activity to portions of the area Sunday night
through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Building surface/upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS will
bring increasing temperatures and humidity through midweek.
NBM probs of 95F/100F continue to increase across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, with Wednesday looking like the hottest
day of the week. With a lingering frontal boundary just north of
the area through the first half of the week, some uncertainty
remains with heat potential as upstream convection and cloud
cover could limit heating during this period. However,
confidence is increasing for heat headline needed for at least a
portion of the area midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Continuing to monitor convective potential through midweek with
active zonal jet pattern through the Great Lakes and the local
area on the periphery of the ridge with building instability.
Models are hinting at a few windows of convective potential for
the local area. Aside front isentropic ascent/low level jet
forced convection upstream across northern IN/southwest lower MI
early this morning that could sneak into northwest OH, next
best chance of impactful shower/storm activity across the area
is late tonight. Low level jet refocuses isentropic ascent just
north of the forecast area, with training convection possibly
sneaking into northwest PA late tonight into Monday morning.
Some higher PMM QPF signals in the HREF/REFS are enough to
consider at least a small chance of heavy rainfall somewhere in
the northwest PA/western NY area, with WPC highlighting the area
in a Day 1 marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This could
result in very isolated flash flooding somewhere in the region,
but confidence is too low on coverage and placement at the
moment to warrant headlines or amplified messaging.

Difficult to pinpoint convective potential beyond the next 24
hours or so given the pattern, but with quasi-zonal/northwest
flow through the Great Lakes into midweek and building
instability, there could be some organized convective complexes
that impact the area in the Monday night through Tuesday night
timeframe. Ridging becomes more prominent across the local area
Wednesday so would expect this day to be the least active
convection-wise, but chances increase across the area late
Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front sinks into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Light showers are entering NW OH, though current observations
keep conditions at VFR. Outside of the showers, ceilings will be
around 10kft through much of the TAF period. There`s low
confidence in showers impacting terminals this TAF period with
KTOL and KCLE being the only locations in Ohio with enough
confidence to include a PROB30 for this afternoon. KERI has
higher confidence later this evening to see predominant showers
after 00Z. Winds will be at 5-10 knots out of the south this
morning then shift to be more southwesterly for most of the day
before shifting back to be more southerly after 01Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible into Monday with showers and
thunderstorms primarily across NE OH and NW PA. Non-VFR possible
in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions return today as a warm front will lift
north across the lake later today. This will bring the potential for
showers and thunderstorms which could result in isolated higher
winds and waves. Generally, winds will be out of the south to
southwest at 5-10 knots through Monday evening. Winds will increase
on Tuesday to 10-15 knots out of the southwest with waves building
to 1-3 feet in the open waters. The nearshore will be 2 feet or less
with the southwesterly flow. Winds and waves will subside to 5-10
knots and less than 2 feet by early Wednesday and continue through
Thursday. Additionally, there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the lake throughout the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23