405
FXUS61 KCLE 030912
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in accumulating freezing rain across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania this morning has increased. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for portions of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania through 10 AM this morning. Additionally,
the flooding risk has decreased as the axis of highest QPF has
shifted south of the forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Accumulating freezing rain will briefly impact Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania this morning before transitioning to all rain
later this morning.

2) Trending warmer with multiple rounds of rain expected today
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will continue to lift north across the Ohio Valley with
primarily light rain showers moving through the local area this
morning. Along the leading edge of precipitation, some light
freezing rain/drizzle will be possible across portions of Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Overall accumulations will
generally range between a light glaze to a few hundredths of an
inch. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where highest accumulations will
likely occur. Anticipate for any freezing rain to transition to
all rain between 8 and 10 AM this morning. Periods of rain
showers will move across the region through tonight as the warm
front becomes stationary across the local area this afternoon
and evening. Rain should gradually diminish later tonight as the
front sinks south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The aforementioned warm front will waver across the region through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Multiple
disturbances will track through the area along the front bringing
periods of rain showers to the region. The southward shift of the
stalled front has largely shifted the axis of higher QPF amounts
south of the local area. The latest forecast now has generally 0.25
to 1 inch of rainfall across the region with locally higher
amounts 1 to 1.5 inches along and south of US 30. With the
southern shift of the stalled boundary the flooding risk has
decreased, but will likely see some rises to area rivers and
creeks. Latest NASA SPoRT guidance keeps nearly all local creeks
and streams below action stage. There may be enough instability
Wednesday into Thursday for some thunderstorms to develop. The
better potential for strong to severe storms will be over the
weekend ahead of a cold front.

Temperatures will warm throughout the week with highs in the 40s
today warming into the 60s Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 60s
expected again on Saturday with some southeastern zones making a run
at low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main aviation weather concern with this 06z TAF update will
be conditions deteriorating down to IFR and the potential for
a few hours of light freezing rain through early Tuesday morning.
The overall trend will be ceilings lowering IFR later through
the early morning hours of Tuesday. Widespread IFR to some
possible LIFR ceilings will be around for Tuesday and through
the end of this TAF period. There will also be widespread areas
of light fog/mist/drizzle causing visibility reduction of 2sm to
5sm early Tuesday morning through the late evening. Scattered
light rain showers will move in late tonight through Tuesday.
With the onset of the light rain showers could be some light freezing
rain before temperatures warm up above the freezing mark. We
have this potential mentioned in PROB30 groups for most of the
TAFs into early Tuesday morning. Winds will start out easterly
5 to 10 knots before winds becoming southeasterly to southerly
Tuesday morning. Wind will shift more westerly to northwesterly by
the end for the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely continues into Tuesday night with rain
showers or drizzle. Occasional periods of rain late Wednesday
through Saturday will likely bring additional non-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Light east to northeast winds are expected through Thursday
evening across the lake. A warm front will lift northward across
the lake on Friday, with winds become southerly. Winds
strengthen to around 15 to 25 knots as they become
southwesterly over the weekend. The lake is still mostly ice
covered, but warm temperatures should cause a broader decrease
in ice coverage through at least early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     OHZ012>014-022-023.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Saunders