265
FXUS61 KCLE 061424
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1024 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Showers and storms expected today ahead of a cold front that will
track through the region tonight with potentially severe level
storms.

2.) Heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
Increased POPS to likely and categorical across the western and
southern counties through early afternoon as an MCS propagates
southeastward across the area. This complex is not being modeled
well at all by the CAMS, but it appears to be an old MCV that
regenerated a new line of convection due to downstream heating.
Strong warm air advection is rapidly raising dew points into the
mid 60s this morning, and with plenty of sunshine ahead of the
line and the increasing low-level moisture, expect it to
continue southeastward across the area. Surface based CAPE is
marginal (around 1000 J/Kg), but with around 30 knots of
effective bulk shear oriented normal to the line, there will be
a marginal threat for severe winds at times from about Findlay
to Mt. Vernon.

This morning complex results in a high amount of uncertainty
regarding the redevelopment of convection ahead of the cold
front this afternoon and evening. It is possible that a trailing
outflow boundary causes all new convection to develop south of
our CWA for the late afternoon and evening, so this will be
reevaluated with this afternoon`s forecast package.


KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers moving through Michigan and southern Ontario due to a
prefrontal surface trough and the emergence of a low level jet will
likely begin to dip southward into our CWA over the next several
hours. These will be largely low QPF producers and scattered in
nature, and not every location will receive rain this morning. As we
get into the daytime hours, flow aloft becomes cyclonic, and with
daytime heating, expecting not only a significant increase in the
instability, but a lowering of the CAPE as well. Column RH could lag
a bit, but do not expect that to be an inhibiting factor to
convection today. Models now showing an increase in the 0-6km bulk
shear compared to last night with 50kts, and could now see this
development becoming a line or cluster of storms moving mainly
northwest to southeast through the CWA. Expecting mainly damaging
winds as a the threat, and this potentially severe convection should
initiate after 18Z when insolation has had time to destabilize after
morning cloud cover exits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure in the wake of the cold front Sunday and Monday in
slightly cooler weather and convective chances returning Tuesday
thanks to a relatively high amplitude upper level trough axis moving
through. Another more persistent upper level ridge will move in for
the rest of the forecast period, through the end of the week, and
will mark a period where very warm temperatures should build in
along with higher dewpoints that eclipse 70F for much of the CWA
Thursday and Friday. Will need to watch the apparent temperatures
for the end of next week with those higher dewpoints and
temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Initial push of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
east across the region this morning. Have maintained TEMPO
groups for TSRA across most TAF sites through ~15Z/Sat. There
will be a brief break in precipitation late this morning into
early this afternoon. Thunderstorms will redevelop this
afternoon along a line south of Lake Erie as a cold front pushes
south across the region. Maintained PROB30 for lakeshore TAF
sites as convection may develop just south of them. Elsewhere,
have TEMPO groups to time out non-VFR impacts in thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening.

Any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop and move over a
terminal will be capable of producing MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities. Any afternoon/evening thunderstorm may reach
severe limits and cause strong wind gusts and large hail.

Southwest winds have decreased slightly early this morning to
8-12 knots but they are expected to increase later this morning
to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Locally higher wind gusts
possible in strong to severe thunderstorms. Winds will turn
westerly while decreasing to 8 knots or less tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog early Sunday morning.
Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase to 15-20 knots ahead of the passage of
a cold front this evening. Wave heights are expected to build
to 3-6 feet across the open waters and in the nearshore zones
of the eastern basin. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement though this evening. As the cold front
moves south across the region showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds
overhead behind the cold front allowing for northerly winds to
decrease to 10 knots or less on Sunday. Easterly flow increases
to 10-15 knots on Monday before southerly flow returns on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas/26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13