069
FXUS61 KCLE 260752
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
322 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a cold front this evening and redevelop again Thursday
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may be possible across
Northwest Ohio this evening.

2) A much warmer weather pattern will develop this weekend into
early next week with temperatures rising into the 80s to around
90 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure centered near the Mid-Atlantic region this
morning is still in control our our weather. Today will be a
rather decent day for most of the area. Skies will start out
mostly sunny to partly cloudy but clouds will increase late in
the day ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will
reach the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.

A weak cold front approaching from the west will move into
Northwest Ohio this evening. A broken line of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along that cold front with
a few strong to severe storms possible, mainly for NWOH between
6 pm and 11 pm. For the thermodynamics ahead the front,
effective shear values will between 30-40 knots, MLCAPE values
between 1000-1500 J/kg, and downdraft CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. The
latest high-res model guidance in good agreement with the
potential of a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds
up to 60 mph as the main threat followed a less threat of large
hail up to the size of Quarters. The latest SPC severe weather
outlook today has Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, and Hancock Counties in
a slight risk (level 2 of 5). There is a marginal severe storm
risk (level 1 of 5) from Wyandot County Ohio northeast to the
Lake Erie Islands this evening. As the convection tracks
eastward late this evening, it will move into a stable
atmosphere and quickly dissipate before it reaches the I-71
corridor.

This slow moving front will be over NEOH and NWPA Thursday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
east of I-71 midday through the early afternoon before it moves
out of the area. Severe weather is not expected with any of the
storms on Thursday. A surface trough will southward across Lake
Erie Thursday evening through early Friday morning with a few
rain showers possible near the lakeshore.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A stretch of much warmer and nice weather will start Friday as
High pressure will builds southeastward across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. The overall weather pattern will transition
from an upper level to upper level ridging this weekend.
Eventually an upper level ridge of high pressure will develop
and stay over the Ohio Valley this weekend into early next week.
This weather pattern will favor above average temperature in the 80s
to around 90 degrees. Overnight low temps will be in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. By the next Monday night and Tuesday, a weak
frontal boundary will try to drift southward into our area and a
return of chance POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Patchy fog/mist will try to develop from far Northeast OH into
Northwest PA early this morning. Confidence in impacts to TAF
sites is marginal, though have TEMPOs for some MVFR BR at ERI
and YNG early this morning. Otherwise, VFR (just FEW-SCT
afternoon cumulus around 050) until showers/storms move in from
the west this evening, reaching TOL as early as 22z. Confidence
in TS impacts is fairly high at both TOL/FDY, where prevailing
VCTS with TEMPOs are in the TAFs. Some storms in Northwest OH
may be strong to severe with wind gusts of 40-50kt. Activity
should weaken quickly as it spreads east and impacts quickly
become more uncertain. Have a window of VCSH with PROB30 for
TSRA at CLE and MFD, with VCSH at CAK. If activity reaches
ERI/YNG it would be at or after the end of the current TAFs.
Southeast winds at mainly <5kt early this morning will shift
south-southwest at 7-12kt with a few gusts up to 20kt this
afternoon. Winds remain south-southwest tonight.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across
Northeast OH/Northwest PA Thursday afternoon. Non-VFR possible
in low ceilings and a few showers moving off of Lake Erie
Thursday night into early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southwest winds will persist over the lake ahead of a cold
front that will cross on Thursday, shifting winds more westerly.
Winds will generally be 10-15kt through much of Thursday,
perhaps briefly stronger late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as the cold front crosses. These winds will build 1 to 3
foot waves (largest in the open waters), perhaps briefly closer
to 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern basin
early Thursday. 1 to 3 foot waves will be pushed towards the
shoreline northeast of Cleveland on Thursday as winds turn more
westerly, though winds will quickly subside Thursday afternoon
which should keep waves below small craft criteria. A period of
slightly elevated winds in the 10-15kt range out of the north-
northeast is expected Thursday night into early Friday, which
will likely create another period of choppy conditions with 1 to
3 footers in the nearshore waters. Favorable marine conditions
are expected Friday afternoon into the weekend with high
pressure sliding through the region.

Thunderstorms will likely move over at least western Lake Erie
this evening before weakening, with lower confidence in
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the lake tonight.
Thunderstorms may re-develop along the cold front over eastern
Lake Erie late Thursday morning or early afternoon before
pushing inland. Any storms can lead to briefly higher/erratic
winds and waves. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may
occur Thursday night into early Friday morning as a trough
crosses the lake, with a low risk for waterspouts.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan