643
FXUS61 KCLE 021123
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build off to the east
through the middle of the week. A low pressure system will deepen
over the Canadian Plains bringing a cold front across the region
late Wednesday night into Thursday, with another cold front passing
through late Friday night. High pressure will build in to start the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through the near term as the surface
high pressure to the east still influences our weather. The high
will drift off the east coast through Wednesday and in response we
will see southwesterly flow over the region and temperatures rise a
few more degrees over the next couple of days. Prior to the shift in
flow, today will have RH values fall down to 30-40% for areas away
from the lake shore. This will give some minor fire weather concerns
for those areas, though with light winds across the region, those
concerns are minimal. Wednesday could see similar fire weather
concerns as winds will increase across the region and with dew
points trending a few degrees lower.

High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will reach into the
upper 70s and low 80s across with overnight lows in the low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front approaching from the west Wednesday night as
precipitation chances will start to increase from west to east
overnight. Guidance has the cold front entering in the I-75
corridor by 12Z Thursday and exiting out to east between 18-00Z.
Along the front, precipitation will be in a fairly narrow
swath, though precipitation rates and measurable precipitation
will be on the higher side. Current probabilistic guidance has
total precipitation accumulation around 0.5-1.0" with the 10th
and 90th percentiles being 0.10-0.30" and 1.50-2.00". There`s
minimal severe weather threat on Thursday in eastern Ohio.
Though, the threat depends on how quickly the front will move
through the region and how much instability will be able build
in.

Drier air should move in quickly behind the front with rain chances
ending Thursday night. The upper level trough will be slow to exit
and a secondary cold front and shortwave will be moving through the
region Friday. Colder air will move in behind the cold front with a
chance for lake enhanced showers across northeastern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania starting Friday night.

Temperatures in the short term will be cooler with high in the upper
60s on Wednesday and then rebounding slightly to the low 70s by
Thursday. Overnight lows will in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday
and drop down into the upper 40s for Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect showers will be continuing across parts of the snow belt
into Saturday. High pressure will be building in from the west
through the weekend, though depending on how quickly the high builds
in, will dictate when the lake effect showers will end. With the
high pressure building in, there will be cooler, drier weather for
the weekend into early next weekend. High temperatures over the
weekend will be in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR with FEW-SCT cumulus FL060 today. Mainly east/southeast
winds less than 10kts, although ERI and CLE could get into a
lake breeze again, weaker than the previous two days.

Outlook...VFR through Wednesday. Showers and storms bring
potential non-VFR Wednesday night and Thursday with a strong
cold front coming through the region. Additional non-VFR
possible in lake-enhanced showers Friday evening into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds less than 10kts bring wave heights under a foot
through 18Z when a weak lake breeze develops again, but not as
strong as this past weekend. Winds become southerly offshore 10kts
Wednesday with the approach of a cold front, increasing to 15-20kts
Wednesday night and nearshore wave heights less than 2ft. This
strong cold front cuts across Lake Erie late Wednesday night into
Thursday with winds becoming westerly 20-30kts and wave heights in
the central and eastern basins in the 4-7ft range. Winds back to
southwesterly 10-20kts into Thursday night and nearshore wave
heights decreasing to 1-3ft before another strong cold front comes
through Friday and wave heights return to 4-6ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26