818
FXUS61 KCLE 211822
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
222 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below average temperatures and periodic rain showers will
continue through Wednesday.

2) Dry and more seasonable weather will return by the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a large area of
clouds and generally light rain showers across the Upper Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon, associated with a
surface trough ahead of a broad upper-level feature to the west
across the Upper Midwest. Surface observations also depict a
stationary front located further south near the Lower Ohio
Valley, thus thunder chances for our area through Wednesday will
remain limited. Occasional rain showers, particularly across
portions of North-Central and Northeast Ohio, will continue into
this evening, before largely dissipating overnight. Can`t rule
out rain persisting across a small portion of Northwest Ohio
overnight into Tuesday along the surface trough, though coverage
should be more isolated and light elsewhere. The next chance
for widespread and perhaps a more steady rain may return late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper-level feature
approaches the area, with an increasing arc of 850 mb E to SE
winds transporting more favorable moisture into the area.

Periodic rain showers and cloud cover will contribute to below
average daytime temperatures in the 60s or perhaps even upper 50s at
times and lows in the 50s or upper 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes by the
end of the week and likely persist through the weekend. Initially,
high pressure and the departing chilly air mass could result in
a favorable scenario for some lows in the upper 30s to develop,
particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania, though 40s
should be more common elsewhere. The air mass will gradually
moderate through the weekend with high pressure in place as
temperatures return to the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Ceiling heights will remain challenging through the TAF cycle as
the frontal boundary slowly pushes south but a surface trough
lingers in the area. Cigs are a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR early
this afternoon and will generally fall to MVFR/IFR the rest of
the afternoon and evening as showers lift across the region. The
steadiest showers will be in southern and eastern areas
impacting KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG but will brush KFDY and KCLE at
times. Periods of MVFR visibility will also occur in the light
rain. This round of showers will gradually exit from west to
east tonight, but IFR cigs and mist are likely to persist
through Tuesday morning, especially in the south and east
impacting KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. MVFR and occasional VFR will
generally prevail tonight and Tuesday morning at KTOL, KFDY,
KCLE and KERI, so it will be slightly better for northern
areas.

NE winds will average 10-20 knots through Tuesday morning, with
periods of gusts in the 20-25 knot range.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional
thunderstorms through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie through
Wednesday with persistent east to northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots
resulting in wave heights of 4 to 7 feet. Conditions will remain
choppy on Thursday as northeast flow only gradually improves to 15
to 20 knots. Winds will continue to gradually weaken on Friday into
Saturday, though will remain out of the north to northeast with the
building high pressure to the north, 10 to 15 knots.

Given the lingering surface trough draped across Lake Erie, can`t
rule out a small chance of waterspouts with any showers that develop
tonight through Tuesday, particularly across the central and western
basin of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for OHZ003-
     007-009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kahn