882
FXUS61 KCLE 141933
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower onset on Saturday has delayed a bit, especially across
eastern counties. Chance of thunder remains, but given the
timing widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
Heavy rain remains the primary concern.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread late
Saturday through Sunday. Heavy rain is the primary concern with
a few stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) High pressure should provide some relief from precipitation
for the start of next week before rain chances return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The nearly stationary boundary that has lingered across the Ohio
Valley will finally begin to move on Saturday, lifting north as
a warm front. This boundary couple with a midlevel shortwave
will result in widespread showers pushing across the area
beginning Saturday afternoon into the evening. There is a narrow
corridor roughly from Findlay to Marion where some strong to
severe storms may occur with strong winds the primary threat,
but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This corridor is the
most likely to see these as daytime instability increases
concurrent with the synoptic forcing. As the storms slowly
spread east, areas will gradually begin to lose that daytime
instability keeping the severe potential to a minimum. By late
tomorrow evening, the entire area should see some showers. To
highlight the scattered severe potential, SPC has kept the
corridor from Marion to Findlay in a Day 2 Slight with a
Marginal extending further east to a line extending roughly from
Sandusky to Canton.

The bigger concern with these widespread showers is the very
heavy and efficient rainfall that is expected to be associated
with them. Deepening warm cloud layers combined with PWAT values
in excess of 2" falling on already saturate surfaces could
result in localized flooding. At times, storm motion may also
becoming parallel to mean flow, suggesting the potential for
isolated training storms to develop which would only enhance the
flood potential. To highlight this concern, WPC has put the
entire area (except far NEOH and NWPA) in a Day 2 Slight Risk
ERO.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
After this shortwave and associated surface low move a cold
front east on Sunday, high pressure is expected to build east
over the area and allow for a brief reprieve from precipitation
across the area for the start of next week. Chances of
precipitation look to increase Wednesday into Thursday as a low
pressure system moves into the region from the central US.
Models have this midweek system developing into a more robust
synoptic trough with more support aloft. Model timing and
positioning of this low still diverge quite a bit, but this may
be another period to keep an eye on for heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Rain has largely ended across the area this afternoon, with a
few scattered showers around Wooster and Canton. Showers and
MVFR ceilings will diminish after 21Z for most terminals, with
a high VFR ceiling and light/variable winds persisting into the
evening. This will favor development of IFR fog across the
southern portion of the region overnight, along and south of a
line from FDY to YNG. Pockets of dense fog are likely in this
area, especially around CAK/AKR. Conditions will improve to VFR
after 15Z tomorrow, with winds becoming south-southeasterly at
5-10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms return
Saturday night through Sunday evening. High pressure will build
behind a cold front Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure exits the Upper Great Lakes, low pressure and
its associated frontal system will move eastward across the
Upper Great Lakes. A warm front will cross Lake Erie Saturday
night into Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday
evening into Sunday night. Offshore flow, meeting or exceeding
20 knots, is possible Saturday. Chances for winds >20 knots and
waves >4 ft increase Sunday into Sunday night, as winds shift
out of the west to northwest. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach
Hazard Statement may be needed this forecast period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...27
MARINE...27