110
FXUS61 KCLE 021147
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
747 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast remains on track and no major changes were needed
with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain and breezy winds are expected with a cold
front this morning.

2) Dry weather returns this afternoon with unseasonably cool
temperatures expected early next week. The first frost of the
season is possible in a few spots Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong cold front will move across the area this morning,
allowing widespread rain to spread southeast across the local
area early this morning. Rain may be moderate at times and most
locations will most likely receive a quarter to a half inch of
rainfall by late morning. Flooding is not anticipated given the
recent stretch of minimal rainfall. Thunder potential is low
given the lack of instability, but the dynamic nature of the
cold front poses a slight chances of a few rumbles of thunder
across portions of NW OH Winds will be a bit gusty with the
frontal passage this morning with periodic gusts to 30 to 35 mph
likely along the immediate lakeshore early this morning. Gusts
will be lower inland, although it will still be breezy. Rain
will quickly exit the area by early to mid afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Canadian high pressure will quickly build southeast across the
CWA behind the aforementioned cold front later today and
gradually drift east across the region Saturday before exiting
to the east by Sunday. A weak cold front will cross the area
during the day Sunday, although guidance favors a dry frontal
passage. Behind this front, a stronger Canadian high will build
over the region, delivering a dry and chillier air mass to the
area for the first half of next week. Temperatures will be in
the mid-60s on Saturday, but warm air advection ahead of
Sunday`s cold front will allow late weekend highs to reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s. From there, highs on Monday and Tuesday
will only reach the low to mid 60s with many spots across
interior NW PA possibly staying in the 50s all day. Overnight
lows will generally be in the 40s to around 50 degrees each
night, however efficient radiational cooling will result in
widespread lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s (with locally
warmer lows in the upper 40s along the lakeshore). Monday will
most likely be the cooler night of two and patchy to areas of
frost are possibly across interior locations and especially
typical cold spots. Will need to continue to monitor the
forecast and would not be surprised if Frost Advisories ended
up being issued for Monday night. High temperatures will warm
into the upper 60s and lower 70s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The main impactful weather for aviation will be this morning
with improving conditions from west to east during the midday
and early afternoon. IFR ceilings are expected for several hours
this morning with a cold front passing through and associated
showers. With the steadier showers, visibility will be reduced
between 2sm and 5sm. VFR conditions will return later this
afternoon through tonight with fair weather skies and some high
level cloudiness. Winds will shift around from the north 5 to
10 knots behind the cold front this morning and continue
through tonight.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie this morning,
resulting in a quick wind shift to the north/northwest. Winds
from Maumee Bay to Conneaut will reach 20 to 25 knots with gusts
as high as 30 knots, causing nearshore waves to build to 3 to 6
feet in nearshore zones. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for this morning. Winds will quickly diminish to 10 to 15
knots for a period this afternoon, but expect north winds to
once again (albeit briefly) increase to 15 to 20 knots as
Canadian high pressure builds over the region this evening. A
second Small Craft Advisory or an extension of the current
Small Craft Advisory can`t be ruled out. By late tonight, winds
will become northeast and diminish to 10 to 15 knots with
similar flow continuing through Saturday. The approach of the
next cold front will cause winds to shift to the southwest
Sunday, although winds will be light. The next chance of marine
headlines will be Sunday night as the arrival of yet another
Canadian high makes northwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots
through Monday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...77
MARINE...15