795
FXUS61 KCLE 130742
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak troughing will linger across the area today, followed by a
primarily dry cold front late Tuesday. High pressure will then
build behind the front on Wednesday and persist through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected for the near term period with
limited precipitation chances and slightly above average
temperatures.

Weak surface troughing will remain across the region today,
though cloud cover and any precipitation chances will remain
east of the area, leading to mostly sunny skies. With the weak
flow regime in place and mostly clear skies, could see a more
expansive area of dense fog develop along or just west of the
I-71 corridor late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Otherwise, attention then turns towards Tuesday as a cold front
will sweep south through the area. It appears this will be a
primarily dry cold front as Canadian high pressure quickly
builds behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather will continue for the short term period
as high pressure expands south across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will fall slightly below average behind the cold
front on Wednesday and Thursday, setting the stage for another
round of potential frost/freeze conditions, particularly along
and east of the I-71 corridor Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A more active weather pattern will develop for the long term
period as a low pressure system sweeps east through the Great
Lakes on Saturday into Sunday, bringing much-needed widespread
rain to the region.

A warm front will lift northeast across the area late Friday
into Saturday, with isentropic ascent potentially resulting in
some rain showers, particularly across the northern half of the
area. Widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms
are more likely to arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a modest
southwest low-level jet of around 35 knots enters the region. A
cold front is expected to sweep east through the area at some
point Sunday where re-development of showers/storms could occur,
though there remains uncertainty on timing and location of the
front.

Above-average temperatures will arrive behind the warm front on
Saturday, with highs reaching the low to mid-70s and perhaps
even the upper 70s in some spots across Northwest Ohio.
Temperatures are not expected to near record-highs at this time
which currently sit in the low to mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
With a surface ridge across the region, conditions are generally
clear with mostly VFR. The exceptions are locations to the lee
of Lake Erie in northeast flow, or the immediate lakeshore
areas and Northwest Ohio. In these areas, moisture is trapped
near the surface and has materialized into some non-VFR
mist/fog. The TAF site of biggest concern will be KTOL, where
there has already been some MVFR/IFR. Flow has backed a touch at
the terminal and conditions will favor VFR/MVFR over the next
few hours. However, flow will return to a northeasterly
direction and visibility may tank back to IFR or even brief LIFR
during the pre-dawn hours. Some non-VFR may extend south into
KFDY but confidence is a touch less.

Outside of fog/mist this morning, conditions should be VFR
across the board starting around 14z. The main daytime hour
concern will be some ceilings entering from the east, allowing
for some low VFR at KERI and perhaps KYNG. Winds will maintain a
general northeasterly direction with higher values near/slightly
above 10 kts closer to Lake Erie.

Outlook...Low potential for patchy fog in Northwest Ohio on
Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the northeast and low pressure off the East
Coast will allow for northeast flow to persist across the lake
today. Overall, the aggregate pressure gradient over the region
from these systems has trended weaker and winds will ultimately
settle in the 10 to 15 kt range. For Tuesday, a cold front will
sweep across the lake and shift winds to northerly and allow
for them to increase into the 15 to 20 kt range. This should
allow for waves to build to about 4 ft over the central basin on
Tuesday night and there may be a need for a marginal Small Craft
Advisory headline. High pressure will fully enter for Wednesday
and weaken the northerly flow across the lake. Some 2 to 3 ft
waves will remain possible with 10 to 15 kts of northerly flow
in the central basin. High pressure will be over the lake on
Thursday and reduce flow to 10 kts or less, as flow backs to the
east then southeast. High pressure will shift to the east for
Friday, allowing for southerly return flow to return to the
lake. Flow may increase later on Friday with a warm front
approaching the basin.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic