717
FXUS61 KCLE 152338
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorms chances increase late tonight across
Northwestern Ohio with a few strong storms possible.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the week as a frontal
boundary wavers across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure continues to build off to the east this afternoon and
evening as a low pressure system moves through Northern Ontario. As
the low moves to the east, the corresponding warm front has moved
north through the region this afternoon with the cold front passing
through late tonight into Wednesday morning. Precipitation chances
will start to increase with the frontal passage in Northwestern Ohio
and spread across the lake shore to the east. More towards Central
Ohio will remain fairly dry for now as an upper level ridge sits
over the southeast CONUS and the shortwaves supporting precipitation
will move along the northern periphery. As for the precipitation
chances overnight tonight, there will be a marginal chance for
severe weather across Northwestern Ohio, but given the time frame
the front will be moving through, instability will be limited. There
will be around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE, around 30 knots of bulk shear,
and DCAPE will be limited as well at roughly 600-800. So overall,
the severe weather chances will be on the lower end, but not zero if
a thunderstorm can strengthen enough to have stronger wind gusts.
With that, SPC has placed the majority of Northwestern Ohio in a
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with the main threat being
damaging winds. Severe threat should dwindle into the morning hours
tomorrow. Additionally, there will be a low chance of a heavy rain
threat for Northwestern Ohio with these thunderstorms as PWAT values
will climb to around 2 inches in the area. With instability and
lapse rates lacking though, the risk will be low, but not zero for
any thunderstorm to drop a quick 1-2 inches of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front will continue to push southward Wednesday morning
though will be fairly weak. There will be little air mass change
expected with it and should stall out across the Ohio Valley
Wednesday evening. Not expecting any thunderstorms to be severe
during the day Wednesday as lapse rates will be lacking across the
region. There may be a few storms that generate some strong gusts
though as instability will be higher with daytime heating and dew
points will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s. Rounds of
precipitation is expected through Thursday evening. Currently there
is some variance in model guidance as to where the front sets up to
the south and where the shortwaves are that will support
thunderstorms. There will also continue to be a heavy rain threat
through Thursday as PWAT values will still be around 2 inches, but
with lapse rates on the lower end, the heavy rain threat will be on
the lower end. That being said, with more instability across the
region tomorrow and Thursday, there will be a little more help
getting some thunderstorms to produce heavy rain. By Thursday
evening into Friday morning, the frontal boundary will push further
south as high pressure builds in from the north across the Great
Lakes and precipitation chances will decrease to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front will begin to move towards the western TAF sites
over the next several hours and conditions will deteriorate.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected in KTOL by 02Z and will
progress east to southeastward through the morning. The front
will weaken as it moves into Northern Ohio, so confidence is
lower on KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG being impacted. Ceilings will drop
from west to east as well through the morning with every site
being 5kft and below by mid morning. Another round of
showers/thunderstorms are possible later in the TAF period, but
confidence is low in impacts to terminals and timing. There will
be very little recovery for ceilings above 5kft during this TAF
period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms
through Thursday night. Non-VFR possible with showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie are currently around 5-15 knots out of the
south behind a warm front that passed through earlier today. Winds
will diminish through the evening tonight down to 5-10 knots then
shift to be out of the north as a cold front will pass over the
lake. Winds will generally be light around 5-10 knots and waver
between northerly and easterly through Thursday evening. There will
increase to 10-15 knots out of the north Friday morning as high
pressure starts to build in from the north then shift to the east
throughout the day Friday into the weekend. Waves throughout the
week should be 2 feet or less across the lake, though choppier
conditions are possible during period of stronger winds. Rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are possible across the lake through
Thursday evening with occasional gusts and higher waves possible
within the storms.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23