801
FXUS61 KCLE 011908
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
308 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats towards off the Northeast U.S. coast
through midweek. A cold front crosses late Wednesday night and
Thursday, with another cold front crossing late Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather continues through Tuesday night as high pressure
retreats towards the Northeast U.S. coast. Weak return flow
will result in temperatures and dew points creeping up, though
it will remain very comfortable overall. Aside from some diurnal
cumulus this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, mainly clear
skies are expected with very limited fog each night.

Lows tonight will generally range from the upper 40s to mid
50s, a bit milder along Lake Erie. Highs Tuesday will reach the
upper 70s/lower 80s. Lows Tuesday night generally in the 50s.

Minimum RH values will likely fall to 30-40% away from Lake Erie
on Tuesday with fuels gradually drying out. However, light
winds (<10 MPH) preclude notable fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The main weather story for the short term forecast period will
be a cold front that crosses late Wednesday night and Thursday.
The front will bring a brief period of wet weather and breezier
winds Wednesday night into Thursday as it works east across the
area, but with low concern for hazardous or severe weather.

Wednesday will be a mainly dry and slightly warmer than average
day, with modest south-southwest breezes (gusts up to 25 MPH in
the afternoon, especially west of I-71) pushing high
temperatures into the lower 80s for most of the area, with some
of the higher terrain in interior OH/PA staying in the 70s. A
weak shortwave will move across the Upper Ohio Valley on
Wednesday and may try to spark an isolated afternoon shower or
two, particularly around the Central Highlands region. However,
this weak forcing will mainly slide just to our south with dry
low-levels resulting in very limited CAPE profiles. Given this,
the current forecast does not have a mentionable PoP and reads
as dry. The current forecast has dew points rising towards the
mid 50s on Wednesday. If these trend a few degrees lower, which
is possible given recent dry weather and an expectation of good
sunshine/mixing on Wednesday, the increased south-southwest
breezes could lead to some fire weather concerns on Wednesday.

Clouds, and eventually rain chances, increase from the west-
northwest Wednesday night as the cold front approaches. While
minor timing differences exist, all guidance gets the cold front
to the I-75 corridor by 12z/8 AM Thursday and has it exiting our
area between 18z/2PM and 0z/8 PM, with most guidance currently
suggesting it exits closer to 18z. The mid-latitude cyclone the
cold front is attached to will reach maturity/peak intensity on
Thursday, beginning to stack/occlude by Thursday night. This
means the cold front will be pushing through as the cyclone is
intensifying and as the associated forcing is maximizing, which
bodes well for rain potential. The combination of a favorable
location beneath the right-entrance region of an upper jet
streak, strong height falls and some positive vorticity
advection (PVA), low to mid-level frontogenesis, and a narrow
plume of above-average precipitable water values argues for a
decent band of rain along the front... though likely a fairly
narrow band of rain. An large dry slot behind the front argues
for quick drying later Thursday and Thursday night, with
southwest flow arguing for limited or no lake effect into
Northeast OH/Northwest PA.

Confidence in measurable rain, per the latest National Blend of
Models, is quite high...with the odds of over 0.10" of rain
between Wednesday night and Thursday of 85-95%+ across the
entire area (lowest along the I-75 corridor). However, the
amount of rain varies quite a bit amongst the ensemble members,
with the 10th percentile values (aka the reasonable "low end")
between 0.10-0.30" and the 90th percentile (aka the reasonable
"high end") between 1.10-1.80". Given the recent dry spell, the
concern for flooding is very low as the rain will mainly be
beneficial. However, the exact amount of relief from the
developing drought is unknown. A slower front would increase the
potential for higher rain amounts. A severe threat may evolve
ahead of the front Thursday afternoon given modest instability,
moderate shear, and strong forcing. However, current indications
are that the front will clear our area quickly enough to keep
this potential just to our east and southeast. If the front were
to slow down this would be something to monitor, though
generally modest instability would be a limiting factor. A brisk
low-level jet could lead to a brief period of wind gusts over
30 MPH along and just ahead of the frontal passage late
Wednesday night into Thursday, decreasing behind the front.

Lows Wednesday night will range from the mid 50s to near 60.
Highs on Thursday will struggle to get out of the 60s given
clouds and rain and cold frontal passage. Lows Thursday night
will return to autumn-like values in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad troughing will be centered on the Great Lakes through the
long term forecast period, leading to another prolonged period
of cooler than normal (and generally minimal to no impact)
weather. A secondary cold front and shortwave is expected to
pivot across the area Friday night, bringing winds around to a
west-northwest direction into Saturday as 850mb temperatures
bottom out around +5C by Saturday night. Have some low POPs
mentioned in far Northeast OH/Northwest PA (the primary
snowbelt) Friday night into Saturday to account for the
potential for some lake enhanced rain showers with the front,
followed by some minor lake effect lingering behind the front.
There is uncertainty regarding how quickly surface high pressure
builds in for the second half of the weekend, with the ECMWF and
CMC models dropping another shortwave through the Great Lakes on
Sunday and maintaining chilly cyclonic flow...while the GFS
lifts the trough out quicker as surface ridging builds in. The
forecast currently reads as dry Saturday night and beyond,
though if the ECMWF and CMC solution proves to be on the right
track, we will need to prolong shower chances east-southeast of
Lake Erie through more of the weekend. Otherwise, mainly dry
weather is expected outside of any lake effect this weekend.

Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the long term. Highs
will likely return to the low-mid 70s on Friday before cooling
back into the 60s for the weekend. A modest warming trend likely
begins early next week. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s
once again across much of the area this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will provide VFR conditions through the TAF
period, although a brief period of MVFR in mist/fog is possible
at KTOL late tonight and/or early Tuesday morning. Winds will
generally be out of the east at 5 to 10 knots through this
afternoon with northeast winds anticipated with the lake breeze
at KCLE/KERI this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be
light and variable tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Showers
and storms bring potential non-VFR Wednesday night and Thursday
with a strong cold front coming through the region. Additional
non-VFR possible in lake-enhanced showers Friday evening into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots are expected this afternoon into
this evening with waves of around 2 feet anticipated from the
Islands to Willowick OH. Winds will shift to the southeast and
diminish to 5 to 10 knots overnight and expect variable winds
under 10 knots on Tuesday. Another lake breeze will likely
produce a period of onshore flow Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday with
winds becoming south/southwesterly and increasing to 10 to 15
knots Tuesday night before increasing further to 15 to 25 knots
Wednesday night. Winds may approach 30 knots in the central
basin late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Wind
direction will shift to the northwest behind the cold front
Thursday afternoon and winds should gradually diminish during
the afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories will most
likely be needed Wednesday night through at least late Thursday
afternoon. West/southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will persist
Thursday night, however winds/waves will likely increase as a
second cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves
across the lake on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15