634
FXUS61 KCLE 300006
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
806 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south across the area on Tuesday,
followed by strong high pressure on Wednesday. This area of high
pressure will then maintain influence over the region into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and dry weather is expected for the near term period with high
pressure in place. A weak cold front will move south across the area
on Tuesday, though will be quickly replaced by strong high pressure
from the north by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pressure gradient
winds will increase out of the northeast, 10 to 15 mph with periodic
gusts up to 20 mph on Tuesday, resulting from Imelda and approaching
high pressure.

Above-average temperatures will continue to be the norm for Tuesday
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For most areas, onshore
northeast flow will keep low temperatures mild, though we could see
some 40s across interior NE OH and NW PA Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and dry weather will persist for the short term period as a
strong area of high pressure builds south and east across the Great
Lakes. Northeast pressure gradient winds of 10 to 15 mph and
periodic gusts up to 20 mph remain likely on Wednesday, though winds
are expected to weaken by Thursday as the high pressure center
becomes more established across the area.

Temperatures may dip slightly below average behind the cold front on
Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, though will quickly rebound
to above average in the mid to upper 70s by Thursday. Could see some
patchy frost across interior NW PA early Thursday morning, though
elevated winds may limit the overall potential and will continue to
monitor trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet and dry weather remain favored for the long term period as the
influence of high pressure expands across much of the Eastern CONUS.
In addition, above-average temperatures are expected to return
across the area with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will be over the region tonight with light winds
followed by a dry cold front approaching from the north late
Tuesday afternoon. The only concern tonight is the potential for
patchy fog, primarily in NW Ohio where flow off Lake Erie may
allow for higher moisture to be trapped in the boundary layer.
Have added a tempo into both TOL and FDY between 10-12Z.
Confidence is generally low to medium in seeing a brief
reduction in visibility just before sunrise. Can not rule out
a brief window of IFR if it the patchy fog does occur. Any fog
will dissipate towards 13Z.

Otherwise look for northeasterly winds to increase Tuesday
afternoon as a cold front arrives from the northeast. In
particular, flow at CLE could increase to 10-15 knots with gusts
to around 20 knots after 18Z. Skies will remain generally clear
through the period except high level cloud across the eastern
terminals overnight.

Outlook...VFR expected through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NE winds will increase on Lake Erie late tonight and especially
Tuesday due to an increasing pressure gradient between a
stronger Canadian high centered near Hudson Bay and Hurricane
Humberto passing off the East Coast. This will require Small
Craft headlines late Tuesday through Wednesday as NE winds of
5-10 knots tonight increase to 15-25 knots by late Tuesday
afternoon, building wave heights to 3 to 6 feet. NE winds of
15-25 knots will continue much of Wednesday with wave heights of
3 to 6 feet before gradually diminishing late Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night while becoming more E. The
strongest and most persistent winds and waves will be in the
central and eastern basins, so the headlines will likely be able
to expire Wednesday morning in the far western basin but will
continue through the day farther east.

Generally E winds of 10-15 knots are expected Thursday, with
some NE component in the afternoon from a lake breeze. Mainly
light and variable winds are then expected Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Garuckas