481
FXUS61 KCLE 041849
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
149 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front will sweep through the area early this
morning. High pressure will build in later today into Friday.
Another cold front will through the area on Sunday. High
pressure will build in late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front from this morning has cleared the area to the east
and high pressure will begin to build in from the west. Ahead of the
high, winds will stay gusty, around 20-25 mph, but will start to
taper off as the high builds in. Additionally, cloud cover will
start to clear for the majority of the region with the influx of
drier low level moisture. There are a few spots along and downwind
of the snowbelt that may have some prolonged cloud coverage due to
northwesterly flow across the lake and, for areas in Pennsylvania
primarily, a connection from Lake Huron. With high pressure moving
in, it will bring in much colder temperatures this evening and
overnight tonight. Locations across the CWA have struggled to warm
even after clearing and have been around 20-25F throughout the day
with wind chills in the low teens to single digits. Temperatures
will continue to drop as the high pressure moves overhead overnight
tonight with efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows tonight
will be down into the single digits for much of the region with
locations near the lakeshore staying around 10F. Winds will be light
with the high overhead, but with any light wind, wind chills will
drop down below 5F with locations in the I-75 corridor and higher
elevations being near zero or just below. There is potential that
some locations may reach record low temperatures tonight.

High pressure will drift off to the east by Friday morning and there
will be some southerly flow across the region that will warm
temperatures up into upper 20s to low 30s for daytime highs with
mostly sunny skies. Friday night lows will be warmer than the
previous night, but still chilly with lows down into the upper teens
to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave will be moving through the region on Saturday that
could bring a chance for scattered snow showers across the
region along a surface cold front. Precipitation chances will be
on the low end for the majority of the CWA, though there will
be potential for lake effect snow showers throughout the day and
into early Sunday. Accumulation will be minimal across the
snowbelt with totals around an inch or less. Ahead of the cold
front, temperatures will be able to warm up into the mid 30s,
which will bring a chance for a rain/snow mix during the
afternoon into the early evening. Colder air will arrive after
frontal passage and any precipitation that falls will be in the
form of snow. On Sunday, there will be a stronger shortwave
moving through the region that will have a better shot at
widespread snow showers across the region, though areas within
the primary and secondary snowbelts will have the better chance
of some light accumulations. There will be some northwesterly
flow behind this feature that could bring scattered lake effect
snow showers to northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania
through late Sunday night. Overnight lows for Sunday night will
be back down into the mid to low teens with some isolated spots
of single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A similar pattern will continue through the long term as the upper
level ridge across the southwestern CONUS and upper level
troughing over the Hudson Bay persists. High pressure will
build in briefly on Monday behind the cold front from the
weekend with dry weather expected to start the week. Models have
shown a series of shortwaves moving through the region starting
Tuesday through the middle of the week. There is less agreement
for the system on Tuesday, but a majority of the long range
models have a stronger clipper system moving through on
Wednesday that could bring a shot for light snow accumulation
across the region. Temperatures in the long term will continue
to be below average with the current pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly flow aloft and very subtle, embedded disturbances affect
northern OH and NW PA through 18Z/Fri. At the surface, a ridge
continues to impact our region as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the Upper MS Valley to Atlantic waters near
Cape Cod. NW`erly to N`erly surface winds around 5 to 10 knots
are expected to become light and variable or calm during the
22Z/Thurs hour. However, a S`erly land breeze around 5 to 10
knots is expected to develop along and within several miles of
Lake Erie, including KCLE and KERI, after ~01Z/Fri. After
~14Z/Fri, surface winds become S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15
knots region-wide.

VFR visibility and primarily dry weather are expected through
18Z/Fri. Isolated lake-effect snow flurries streaming SE`ward
from Lake Erie across NE OH and NW PA should dissipate by
21Z/Thurs. Scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli with
bases near 3kft to 4kft AGL will dissipate from west to east
over northern OH and NW PA this evening through the first couple
hours of Fri morning as the ridge at/near the surface builds
E`ward, which will cause mean low-level flow over/downwind of
Lake Erie to veer gradually from NW`erly to S`erly. In addition,
scattered cumuli are expected through ~21Z/Thurs and after
~15Z/Fri.

Outlook...Periodic snow and/or rain showers with non-VFR are
expected this Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will gradually improve from west to east this
afternoon and evening as northwest winds subside to 10 knots or
less overnight with high pressure building across the region.
Rough marine conditions are expected to return across the
eastern basin of Lake Erie on Saturday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A brief quiet spell across the
lake is expected on Sunday, before the next potential for Small
Craft conditions arrives late Sunday into Monday with north flow
of 15 to 20 knots. A stronger system may approach the region on
Tuesday with southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record cold low temperatures are expected tomorrow
morning. Here are the record cold low temperatures for December
5th:

Toledo: -2F (1976)
Mansfield: 1F (1957)
Cleveland: 2F (1871)
Akron: 7F (1991)
Youngstown: 9F (1991)
Erie, PA: -2F (1886)


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Kahn
CLIMATE...