050
FXUS61 KCLE 291141
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
641 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast through the Central Great Lakes
tonight into Sunday, dragging a surface trough across the area
Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build across the region on
Monday. Another low pressure system will move northeast from the
Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. A strong cold front
will move south through the Great Lakes late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main concern for the near term period will be a period of
moderate to heavy wet snow across Northwest Ohio later this
evening ahead of a warm front, particularly between 6 and 10
PM. The highest snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour will
be found in Lucas County where a Winter Storm Warning remains in
effect for storm total accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. In the
Advisory areas along the I-75 corridor, snowfall rates of up to
0.75 inch per hour will be more common. The spatial extent of
the headlines remains unchanged, though the start time has been
pushed back 5 hours from 10 AM to 3 PM as this is when the
potential for significant accumulations becomes more likely.

Outside of the headline areas, 1 to 3 inches of wet snow is
likely. Snowfall rates may reach 0.5 inch per hour across
northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday
morning. Will need to continue to monitor snowfall trends across
inland Northwest Pennsylvania as the colder air mass in place
may result in higher snow totals closer to 3 or perhaps 4
inches.

Low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves northeast through
the Great Lakes on Sunday, with hodographs indicating strong
warm air advection behind the warm front, increasing temperatures
into the mid to perhaps upper 30s by mid to late Sunday
morning. Cooler air will return by Sunday afternoon and evening
as a surface trough quickly sweeps east through the area. Winds
may gust in the 30 to 35 mph range ahead of the trough later
this evening and overnight, increasing to 35 to 40 mph by early
Sunday afternoon in the wake of cold air advection. Will likely
have another brief period of moderate snow with the trough
passage across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
Sunday evening which could result in an additional 1 to 2
inches of accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the short term period will be the potential for
an area-wide snow late Monday night into Tuesday as a coastal
storm takes shape near the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, areas
generally along and east of the I-71 corridor have the highest
chances (40 to 50%) of seeing at least 4 inches of snow.
Probabilities remain on the lower end (15 to 20%) for 6 inches
of snow, but certainly bears monitoring.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong cold front will move south though the Great Lakes late
Wednesday into Thursday, ushering in a cold air mass across the
region, though recent guidance is suggesting this may be more
of a glancing blow as high pressure quickly builds east across
the Midwest late Thursday into Friday. Nonetheless, much of the
area could see wind chills in the single digits late Thursday
night into Friday morning in addition to some high-SLR lake
effect snow across the snowbelt behind the front on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR with some lake effect ceilings at around 3500-5000
ft AGL will continue through much of this morning, although
ceilings should rise for a period this afternoon. Low pressure
will lift towards the region late this afternoon into this
evening and worsening flight conditions will move northeast into
the region through the remainder of the TAF period. Snow will
move into KTOL/KFDY at around 21Z before reaching KCLE/KCAK near
or shortly after 00Z and KERI by about 03Z. Several hours of
snow are expected with warm air advection allowing snow to mix
with rain at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD at around 09Z Sunday. This trend
should continue northeast after the end of the TAF period.

Flight conditions in precipitation should largely be MVFR with
pockets of IFR vsbys, however most guidance suggests that
ceilings will gradually lower to IFR at most terminals in the
warm sector of the low overnight. Will need to monitor upstream
trends and make adjustments to the TAFs as needed.

Winds will become south/southeasterly and increase to 5 to 10
knots this morning into this afternoon. Southeast winds will
develop this evening with sustained winds increasing to 6 to 12
knots. Winds will then increase significantly after about 03Z
Sunday; sustained winds will reach 15 to 20 knots with gusts to
25 to 35 knots anticipated by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected as a low pressure system
traverses the region Sunday through early Monday. There is potential
for prolonged non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania due to lake effect snow/rain showers. Non-VFR
conditions will be possible again with another low pressure system
on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions will return to Lake Erie tonight as
strong low pressure lifts northeast into the central Great Lakes.
Offshore winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight with
southwest winds developing and increasing to 30 to 35+ knots in the
open waters of the western basin and both the open waters and
nearshore zones east of the Lake Erie islands Sunday morning
through Sunday evening. Winds may briefly approach 40 knots in the
open waters of the eastern and central basins. Small Craft
Advisories have been hoisted ahead of the stronger winds this
evening into tonight with Gale Watches in effect Sunday morning into
Sunday night (late Sunday afternoon in the western basin). A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect from Willowick east to Ripley, NY
until 12Z/7 AM this morning, however a Small Craft Advisory for the
next round of strong winds will be issued upon these zones upon
expiration. Water levels will drop in the western basin of Lake Erie
as gales develop on Sunday and a Low Water Advisory will likely be
needed in a subsequent update. Northwest winds should diminish
pretty quickly Monday morning and winds will gradually become light
and shift offshore by Monday afternoon.

Southwest winds to around 5 to 10 knots will likely develop late
Monday into Tuesday with northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots
anticipated behind weak low pressure Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Winds will increase in response to an approaching cold front
during the day Wednesday and marine headlines will likely be needed
at some point Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for OHZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for OHZ006>008-017-018-027.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday
     for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for LEZ144>146.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for
     LEZ144>146-164>166.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ147>149.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     LEZ147>149-167>169.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
     LEZ162-163.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15