337
FXUS61 KCLE 111207
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
707 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes, but snow amounts come down very slightly in NW
PA, closer to 4 inches for the forecast max.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Snow showers develop this morning in the wake of a cold front
from lake effect and saturated low level cold air advection.

2) After a cold day today, temperatures exhibit an upward trend
through the 7 day forecast to above normal Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The low level cold air advection has begun and temperatures are
falling across the region. A trough pushing off the lake early
this morning is bringing some very light snow or drizzle to far
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. As we head through the day, the
combination of saturated low levels, convergence in the low
level thermal trough, and lake effect contributions, on and off
snow showers are expected mainly in, but not limited to the snow
belt region of the CWA. Snow will likely be most widespread this
evening through early Thursday. Accumulations will be relegated
to far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, and modest at
that given low QPF in the overall drier airmass and ice
coverage on Lake Erie and partial coverage of Lake Huron.
Temperatures relegated just below freezing for the most part
both today and tomorrow with high pressure moving in or
Thursday. This will signal the last of the cold air for a while.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure moves eastward with a synoptic/longwave scale
pattern change occurring for the Great Lakes region. The
dominant upper level troughing that has kept well below normal
cold weather in place for the past roughly 3 weeks will give way
to ridging over the Mississippi Valley and now more in the track
of Pacific frontal systems as opposed to Arctic frontal systems.
Temperatures continue to gradually increase through the period
with the most pronounced upper level ridging over the Great
Lakes occurring at the end of the 7 day forecast early next
week. A southern stream system passes to the south late weekend,
and should have little affect this far north, and the overall
QPF forecast is low. This bodes well with the climbing
temperatures by allowing for thaws to occur without adding
precipitation to the equation with solid ice packed area rivers.
Will be watching to see if this forecast trend continues as the
early next week time frame approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly MVFR ceilings out there, with a few sites VFR. Mainly
MVFR ceilings will continue today and tonight as chilly west-
northwest flow continues across the region. Some very light
precip (a mix of snow and drizzle with limited to no
restrictions) is affecting extreme Northeast OH/Northwest PA at
12z as a subtle surface trough pushes through. Lake-enhanced
snow showers are expected to pick up later this afternoon and
continue tonight, with some limited restrictions possible at
CLE, ERI, YNG and perhaps CAK.

Winds will remain west-northwest, generally in the 8-15kt range
with some gusts up to 25kt later this morning and afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR in stratus or snow showers may linger into
Thursday, especially across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Non-
VFR may return in rain and/or snow on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered, though recent satellite
imagery depicts several large cracks that have developed in the ice
over the central basin. West-northwest winds will remain slightly
elevated at 15-20kt through this evening, before gradually subsiding
to 10-15kt tonight and Thursday. Winds decrease to under 10kt late
Thursday into early Friday, before increasing to 15-25kt out of the
southwest Friday afternoon and evening. Winds should be fairly light
this weekend with high pressure moving near Lake Erie late Saturday.
Ice will get pushed to the east-southeast through Thursday, before
getting pushed northeast Friday and Friday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan