398
FXUS61 KCLE 171348
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
948 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through this
week, resulting in near-record temperatures across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Convection is already starting to pop across the area with some
convective temperatures being met in a couple spots, while a
remnant MCV drives some stronger convection on the Canadian side
of Lake Erie. Coverage will increase through the morning hours
and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present by
afternoon. A new addition with this update is a Day 1 Marginal
Risk for severe weather from SPC. DCAPE values of 800 J/kg have
entered the region with iso/sct convection, which will mean that
any storm that develops could have a stronger wind gust with it.

630 AM Update...
A diffuse outflow boundary from the remnant MCV in MI will
likely stall somewhere across northern OH this morning, which
could be the basis for convective initiation later this
afternoon. High temperature forecast (mid to upper 90s) looks to
remain on track with just some high cirrus overhead.

Previous Discussion...
A prolonged heat wave will begin across the region today and
persist through at least Friday. Daily maximum heat indices near
or above 100 degrees are likely with low temperatures not
expected to dip below 70 degrees. Have upgraded the entirety of
the Excessive Heat Watch to a Heat Advisory in this update.
Further targeted, localized upgrades to Excessive Heat Warnings
remain possible, especially in urban centers where heat stress
will be maximized.

For today, the upper-level ridge will continue to establish
itself across the Eastern CONUS. Closer to the surface, a
mesoscale convective complex continues to slowly pivot eastwards
across southern MI, likely aided by a modest 700 mb jet. Recent
satellite imagery continues to indicate healthy cloud-top
cooling with mesoscale analysis suggesting continued convective
development along an approaching warm front/instability
gradient. Will need to continue to monitor this feature as it
will likely become the main forcing mechanism for any
thunderstorms in our area this afternoon, particularly across NE
OH and NW PA. An approaching weak surface trough, evident on
vapor water imagery in the western KY vicinity, could kick off
some isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, though confidence is
lower on coverage. Any thunderstorms that do develop today will
have a strong downburst potential given steep low-level lapse
rates > 8 C/km, strong surface instability > 3000 J/kg, and
large theta-e differences.

A similar scenario will unfold on Tuesday with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms as deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture
attempts to round the ridge axis. Another weak surface trough is
expected to arrive from the south, in addition to the better
possibility of a lake breeze, particularly from Cleveland
eastward. Once again, any thunderstorms that do develop will
have a strong downburst potential given a similar environment to
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
One of the consistent difficulties in the forecast for this stretch
of weather dominated by a strong dome of upper level high pressure
to the east/northeast of the CWA is trying to determine if there is
enough layer moisture for convection to develop, and if so, to what
extent. The operational models continue to try to push out QPF
associated with weak waves in the south to north flow, but looking
at forecast soundings shows it remains pretty dry above the boundary
layer. Will opt to keep some low POPs in across the area just
because there is not enough confidence to completely remove them
given the setup and feel isolated convection is a reasonable
forecast. Thursday is a day for stronger ridging aloft, getting away
from the south to north flow with a westward expansion of the ridge
axis into the southern Great Lakes. This keeps the baroclinic zone
well to the north of the CWA and likely cuts off the tropical flow
of moisture as well. Some trickiness to the temperatures Wednesday
as there will not be any real change to the airmass in place but
there could be an increase in high level/cirrus cloud cover. This
could keep the temperatures down a degree or two from previous
forecasts where every degree helps in this hotter pattern. Dewpoints
have come up slightly however, and the the apparent temperature
values likely are not going to change much if the slightly cooler
forecast materializes. Expecting Thursday to be a little hotter once
again with slight 500mb height increases from the aforementioned
expanding ridge axis influence over the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expecting gradual degradation of the dominant upper level ridge
pattern along with a southward migration for the end of the week and
into the weekend. At this point, trying to pin down the next
significant chances for rain which appear to be Sunday. Flow aloft
will become a bit more zonal allowing for more organized systems to
work into the area. Still on the hot side for Thursday and Friday,
but gradual cooling through the long term and should be in in the
80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with primarily VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Have kept vcts mention in most
TAF sites (minus ERI) as an outflow boundary from the convective
complex in MI could be the basis for thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Confidence remains low on thunderstorm placement
and coverage. Any thunderstorm that does impact a TAF site this
afternoon will bring a strong downburst and heavy rain threat.

Winds are generally out of the south this morning, 5 to 8
knots. Winds will favor a southwest direction later this morning
and afternoon, around 10 knots, before shifting back towards
the south, 5 to 8 knots, by late this evening.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but confidence is
low.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds generally less than 10kts through Wednesday become
light and variable for the end of the week. Wave heights through the
entire forecast period less than a foot through Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms possible today and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on
several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June
21 are listed below for our official climate sites.


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26
CLIMATE...CLE