174
FXUS61 KCLE 011119
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
719 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds off towards New England through
early next week. An upper level trough and associated cold front
will move into the region on Wednesday and exit to the east by
Thursday. A secondary cold front will through on Friday as the
upper level trough lingers in the region through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through the middle of the
week as high pressure slowly builds off to the east. There will be a
warming trend over the next couple of days has the upper level ridge
pushes east. Highs will warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s for
western Ohio. Given the high pressure with clear skies and dry
airmass, overnight lows will drop on the colder side of guidance for
this morning. Temperatures won`t be as cold as the past few nights,
but will still drop down into the upper 40s with some low lying
areas seeing low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will begin to deepen into the upper Midwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry weather will come to an
end by Wednesday night as the corresponding surface cold front
enters the region from the west. There will be some scattered
showers through the evening before PoP chances increase with the
front. Even with decent jet support, there is fairly weak
instability with the lack of increased moisture and heating, so
severe weather threat is on the low side. There will likely be some
embedded thunder within the showers and along the front with what
weak instability and forcing there is. The cold front should exit
out of the region by Thursday evening and precipitation chances will
fall for the majority of the area as drier air moves in.
Temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
with overnight lows in the mid 50s. With the cold front on Thursday,
temperatures will be muted given the precipitation and will only
reach up into the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level trough will be slowly drift towards the James Bay
region into the weekend. An additional cold front will through the
region Friday night into Saturday, though PoP chances are currently
low with this feature. There will be northwesterly flow behind the
front and along the western portion of the trough that will allow
for lake effect showers to form across northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday into Sunday. Upper level ridging
will be building in from the west on Sunday bringing in drier, but
cooler weather. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s with
overnight lows down in the mid to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly clear under high pressure as this weather pattern
continues for the region. East winds today 10kts, although CLE
and ERI should see a lake breeze go northeasterly 10-15kts. FEW
cumulus FL050. Mainly clear again tonight.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Showers
and storms bring potential non-VFR Wednesday night and Thursday
with a strong cold front coming through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Expecting a lake breeze development again today during the afternoon
hours with northeast winds in the nearshore waters increasing to
15kts and wave heights building to 2ft from the islands to
Willowick. Tuesday winds become light and variable while an area of
low pressure developing to the northwest of Lake Erie and wave
heights less than a foot. Low pressure and a cold front approach
from the west with winds becoming offshore out of the south 10-
15kts, increasing to 15-20kts Wednesday night. Nearshore winds calm
along the shoreline while out near 5NM, wave heights will increase
to 2ft. A strong cold front comes through early Thursday and winds
becoming westerly 15-25kts. Lake conditions deteriorate for the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26