997
FXUS61 KCLE 270015
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
715 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system departs towards Quebec tonight, leaving
behind a surface trough that lingers through Friday evening.
High pressure briefly builds in Friday night through early
Saturday afternoon before another low pressure system moves
northeastward across the region Saturday night through Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A strong low pressure system will pull away from the area with a
surface trough lingering across the Great Lakes region. This
will result in areawide wind impacts through tonight, and lake
effect snow across the snowbelt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania through at least late Friday. See the details
below.

Wind:

Areawide winds are already gusting to 40-50 mph, with the strongest
winds currently to the north (northern counties bordering Lake
Erie) and to the west (closer to I-75 corridor). We should see
wind gusts strengthen this evening into tonight as 850mb winds
increase to 45-55 knots, with peak wind gusts between 02-09Z
(early to the west, later towards the east). Strongest winds
will be along the eastern Lake Erie lakeshore where it`s not
out of the question to see an isolated wind gust as high as 60
mph.

After tonight, winds will gradually weaken, though 40-50 mph
wind gusts will be remain possible along the lakeshore Lorain
and east Thursday into Thursday night.

Lake Effect Snow:

An airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures in the -10 to
-12 C range and deep moisture to 600-700mb will filter in behind
the departing low pressure system, contributing to moderate
lake induced instability and periods of heavy lake effect snow
across the snowbelt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
tonight through Thursday night.

Initially, this will begin as a single primary band over Lake
Erie as southwest flow keeps lake effect snow offshore and
pushing eastward into western New York Wednesday evening.
Eventually, steering flow becomes westerly very late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning, pushing the band south and
inland through the day Thursday. As it does so, there will
likely be several hours of heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inch per
hour across Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Erie, and northern
Crawford Counties before the situation evolves into a psuedo
multi-band setup sometime Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening, which is when there is a better shot for impacts to
start reaching Cuyahoga, southern Geauga, and northern Trumbull
Counties. Following a upper-level trough passage, we should see
flow become west-northwest Thursday night into Friday causing
snow bands to reach farther south into northern Summit and
northern Portage Counties.

Snow totals are expected to peak in the 12-20" range,
especially in northern Geauga, inland Erie County, and northern
Crawford County where confidence is highest in snow bands
persisting. Lower totals of 8-12" are expected in Ashtabula,
southern Lake, and eastern Cuyahoga, and 4-8" along the
lakeshore and in northern Summit, northern Portage, and northern
Trumbull. Compared to the previous forecast, snow totals were
shifted southward a bit with less snow near the lakeshore, and a
bit more in the northern portions of Summit, Portage, and
Trumbull.

Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snow through
Thursday night, which may worsen travel impacts. Blowing and
drifting snow is expected to be at its worst Thursday morning
when visibilities of 1/4SM or less and near-blizzard conditions
could at least briefly be possible, particularly near the
lakeshore.

Headlines:

The main change to headlines today was to expand the Winter
Weather Advisory to include Portage, as snowfall totals in the
northern portion increased to 4-6". There is some potential that
Trumbull may need to be upgraded to warning with a few models
showing 8" in the northern portion of the county. There is also
some potential that the Winter Weather Advisory may need to be
expanded to include Summit County with a few models showing 4-6"
in the far northern portion.

Forecast Uncertainty:

-Very strong winds aloft, especially tonight and Thursday, could
 result in lower snow ratios than expected. Currently we have
 snow ratios between 10-15:1 but strong winds tend to reduce
 snow ratios because they can break up dendrites.
-Very strong winds aloft could also carry bands further inland
 than we expect. This could result in lower totals along the
 lakeshore than expected.
-There is uncertainty with how quickly the band over Lake Erie
 tonight shifts southward during the day Thursday. Many models
 tend to forecast this inland progression a bit too quick,
 something the regional Canadian tends to do a bit better with.
 This results in greater uncertainty for the southern extent in
 counties such as Cuyahoga, Summit, Portage, and Trumbull
 Counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow dissipates and shifts eastward Friday night as
high pressure and upper-level ridge builds in. At this point,
additional snow of 1" or less is expected.

On Saturday, a high pressure system will quickly push east across
the area ahead of a potent low pressure system. This low will
originate out of the southern Great Plains and lift northeast
across the central Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Precipitation
is expected to overspread the area starting late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Initially, sub-freezing
surface temperatures will allow precipitation to primarily fall
as snow with the most likely outcome for about an inch or less
of snowfall areawide Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
morning, though there is a better chance for 2-3" towards the
Toledo area. As temperatures warm to above freezing on Sunday,
should be a clean transition from snow to rain, though there is
a very low chance (~10%) for freezing rain or sleet to briefly
mix in south of I-76 and east of I-71 Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain may persist into Sunday before transitioning to lake
effect snow Sunday evening and persisting through Monday
morning. Limited snow accumulations are expected at this point
with maybe 1-2" of snow at best through Monday morning across
parts of the snowbelt in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.

A weak upper-level trough will swing through Monday into Tuesday
with a weak surface low over the lower Mississippi Valley
lifting towards the mid-Atlantic and becoming a coastal low.
Isentropic lift well north of the low may lead to light
precipitation across much of the area Monday night into Tuesday.
Surface temperature would support mainly snow, though
precipitation chances are highly dependent on the track of this
weak low (farther north = higher probability of light snow).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Light snow showers will continue to move through north central
and NE Ohio/NW PA over the next few hours, mainly affecting
KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI with oscillating cigs and vis between
MVFR and VFR. Some snow showers will also affect KTOL the rest
of the evening coming off of Lake Michigan, with periodic MVFR
there too. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected tonight, with
attention turning to heavy lake-effect snow developing by
Thursday morning. The bulk of this will only affect KERI most
of the day Thursday, where overall poor conditions are expected
late tonight through the day in frequent IFR or lower moderate
to heavy snow and blowing snow. The heaviest snow and most
persistent IFR or lower at KERI is expected to begin between 07
and 10Z and last through 12 to 14Z as a primary band of heavy
snow over Lake Erie slowly sags inland. From late Thursday
morning through the afternoon, conditions should improve to
mostly MVFR as the main band shifts inland, but intermittent
snow showers will continue with MVFR being most prevalent. KCLE,
KCAK, and KYNG will likely be clipped by the lake-effect snow
toward the end of the TAF period Thursday evening, with KCLE and
KYNG having the best chance, so introduced some snow showers at
those sites late in the day. Otherwise, conditions across all
Ohio terminals Thursday will fluctuate between VFR and MVFR with
occasional snow showers or flurries as the bulk of the snow
stays confined to the primary snowbelt of far NE Ohio and NW PA.

Very strong winds will continue tonight through Thursday
afternoon, gradually diminishing in the late afternoon and
evening. WSW winds of 20-30 knots will gust to 40-45 knots
tonight, especially near the lakeshore. Winds will turn W to WNW
Thursday, gradually decreasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon,
but 30-40 knots gusts will continue at times.


Outlook...Strong winds with gusts 30-40 kts continue through
Thursday night. Non-VFR ceilings will continue through Friday.
Lake effect snow will allow for non-VFR visibility for most
terminals through Friday AM with the most significant impacts
expected at KERI, KCLE, and KYNG. Another system will enter the
Great Lakes region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing
potential for more non-VFR and strong winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions will continue on Lake Erie through
Friday as west/southwest gales persist. Nearshore/lakeshore
observations have already reported gales and winds will most likely
peak later this evening into tonight. Sustained winds of 35 to 40
knots with gusts to 45 to 50 knots are expected through at least
early Friday morning with periodic sustained winds as high as 45
knots likely in the open waters of the central and eastern basins
through late tonight. Winds may diminish a bit in the western basin
Thursday morning, however the Gale Warning remains in effect for the
western end of the lake through late Thursday night. Gale Warnings
remain in effect from Vermilion eastward through late Friday
morning. The strong winds have resulted in low water levels in the
western basin of the lake. As of 3 PM EST, the water level at Toledo
was 26.8 inches below low water datum, which is more than 21 inches
below the critical mark for safe navigation. Water levels will
likely continue to drop through this evening and a Low Water
Advisory remains in effect through Thursday.

Small Craft Advisories will be needed after the Gale Warnings
end as winds gradually diminish through Friday. West/northwest winds
will diminish below 30 knots by Friday evening and below 20 knots by
early Saturday morning. From there, winds will gradually shift to
the southwest after sunrise Saturday and the southeast on Saturday
evening. Winds will increase as low pressure tracks across the Great
Lakes over the weekend and additional headlines will likely be
needed Saturday night and especially Sunday. Northwest winds should
diminish by Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for OHZ003-006>009-013-
     014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for OHZ010>012-089.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for OHZ011>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for OHZ022-023.
PA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for PAZ002-003.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
     Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...15