973
FXUS61 KCLE 071826
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
226 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main severe weather
threat will be damaging wind gusts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and unsettled with periodic chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday. Heavy
rainfall is also possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A quasi-stationary front is currently located across the
region. There is a warm and very humid airmass also across the
region. Widely scattered showers and storms are redeveloping
this afternoon with some help from a weak lake breeze and old
outflow boundaries too. A broad upper level trough has setup
over the Great Lakes region. Around the base of this upper level
trough will bring weak disturbances to aid in the development
of scattered showers and storms. A round of scattered convection
is expected to develop this afternoon for areas of NEOH and
NWPA. This round will move eastward through the evening. Another
round of scattered convection will develop over NWOH later this
evening and track eastward across northern Ohio into NWPA
overnight. A couple strong to severe storms may be possible with
damaging wind gusts as the main threat. There is a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) highlighted from SPC for the rest of today.

We will start off the day Saturday fairly quiet. But the quasi-
stationary front will push through as as weak cold front during
the afternoon with additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Weak high pressure will build into the
area Saturday night and Sunday with a drier forecast. High
temperatures will be in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The weather pattern becomes more unsettled for the early part of
next week. A broad upper level trough will continue to be over
the Great Lakes region for early next week. Another cold front
will drop down through the Great Lakes on Monday and slow down
as it moves into our area. Multiple rounds of convection will be
possible along this slow moving or quasi-stationary boundary
Monday through Wednesday. SPC has highlighted the area in a Day
4 severe weather outlook on Monday. The main severe weather
threat will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Heavy
rainfall will also be a concern for Monday into Tuesday. WPC has
the area highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall
both Monday and Tuesday. Timing of these multiple rounds of
convection is a little uncertain at this time. Widespread
several inches of rainfall is very possible Monday through
Wednesday. The quasi-stationary front may finally push south of
the area by Thursday into Friday with lower rain chances and
slightly cool, less humid air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Showers are beginning to initiate along a line from Huron
County northeast to Lake County. Expect for this area of
showers to increase in coverage while sinking southeastward
across terminals through this evening. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop as this line forms. Opted to maintain
PROB30 groups for TS impacts at all TAF sites along and east of
I-71 as showers and storms will remain isolated to scattered in
coverage.

The initial push of showers/storms will exit to the southeast
this evening (~22Z/Fri-00Z/Sat) giving way to a brief break
tonight. A remnant shower/thunderstorm will enter the region
overnight tonight, mainly across inland terminals. Confidence in
coverage remains low so opted to continue PROB30 lines at
appropriate TAF sites.

Winds will remain southerly this afternoon and evening before
shifting more southwesterly tonight into Saturday morning.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR anticipated in scattered showers
and thunderstorms Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly to southwesterly flow 5-15 knots continues through
tonight before low pressure gliding east through the Great
Lakes drags a cold front across Lake Erie on Saturday. Winds
will turn onshore behind the front Saturday night, remaining
between 10-15 knots. Waves are expected to remain 2 feet or less
through the weekend. An area of high pressure will move
overhead on Sunday leading light winds through Sunday evening.
Winds eventually favor southwesterly and return to 10-15 knots
Sunday night through midweek. Marine headlines are not
anticipated given largely offshore flow through the weekend and
beginning of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13