539
FXUS61 KCLE 110526
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
126 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances this evening into tonight have increased a bit as a
shortwave moves across the area. Have also introduced patchy to
areas of fog to the forecast for tonight into early Friday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A batch of very light rain will quickly slide across the area
early tonight. Patchy fog may develop early Friday morning.

2) Humid conditions with shower and storm chances will return on
Saturday with periodic showers and thunderstorms possible next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The cold front has pushed south of the area early this evening.
A shortwave is allowing some light rain to quickly spread east
across the area north of the front. Somewhat dry low-levels mean
there`s a bit more bark than bite to the radar, with any rain
amounts under 0.05. The shortwave exits east overnight, taking
the rain with it and allowing skies to clear with light winds.
Not an ideal setup for widespread dense fog early Friday morning,
but there will likely be at least some in typical low-lying/
less urban areas that are most prone to radiational cooling fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a brief break from both humidity and rain chances on
Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the area
Saturday as a warm front lifts through the region. The greatest
probability of showers and thunderstorms will be across southern
and eastern areas during the day. The potential for gusty winds
in thunderstorms is still there, but confidence is low due to
likelihood of daytime cloud cover and uncertainty with the
placement/timing of the best instability and forcing. Dew points
will once again reach the upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday
so it will be quite humid. Isolated showers can`t be ruled out
as a cold front attempts to cross the region on Sunday with dry
weather favored on Monday as high pressure briefly builds in
from the west. Another period of unsettled weather is likely as
a series of disturbances ripple across the region Tuesday
through at least Wednesday, though there is still low confidence
in the exact timing/placement of showers and thunderstorms and
any resulting impacts/hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Light rain showers and mid level clouds will continue to push to
the east early this morning. Clear and calm conditions are still
expected across terminals into daybreak this morning. Have lines
in southern and eastern TAF sites for patchy fog, generally 3-5
SM. VFR conditions are expected after any mist/fog dissipates
in the morning. Light and variable winds tonight will shift
east- northeast during the daytime today, but winds will remain
10 knots or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms on
Saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening.
Non-VFR possible again in scattered showers and storms on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds between 5 and 10 knots this evening will shift
to the northeast as high pressure builds over Lake Erie tonight
into Friday morning. Winds may increase by a few knots as they
shift to the southeast in response to an approaching warm front
late Friday into early Saturday before becoming south/southwest
during the day Saturday. Northwest winds are expected as a cold
front moves over the lake at some point Sunday. Winds will
remain well below Small Craft Advisory limits through the
weekend, although headlines may be needed in the western/central
basins as northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots early
Monday morning. At the very least, there will probably be
moderate swim risks. Winds may remain elevated as southerly flow
deepens Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15/Sullivan
AVIATION...13
MARINE...15