759
FXUS61 KCLE 130539
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. Trailing showers/stratiform rain
may inhibit further storm development further west, but there is
time for the atmosphere to recover slightly prior to this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front late Sunday into early Sunday night brings the next round
of convection.

2) Warm sector returns Tuesday through Thursday after a cool Monday
bringing unsettled conditions back into the fold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front pushing through the area has brought mainly showers but
also a few embedded thunderstorm this morning. Trailing showers,
stratiform rain driven by PVA aloft continue this afternoon and
early evening when activity should overall be on the wane across the
CWA. Potential fog into the overnight hours developing late where it
rained today but could be inhibited by lingering clouds in the
eastern CWA, so this could end up being more of western CWA issue.
Brief warm sector residence time into Sunday when a cold front
enters from the northwest. Low/mid level frontogenesis should be on
the increase as the front is tracking through, and see these
increases in the southeastern zones of the CWA. That is when a line
of convection with the front is expected to form, likely just south
and east of the lakeshore areas east of Cleveland associated with a
small pocket of a low level jet maximum and increasing instability
from dewpoints near 70F at the surface and a 3-5C surge at 850mb
coinciding with the aforementioned low level jet. Sufficient 0-6km
shear should organize storms into a line ahead of the cold front.
There is a potential for severe as a result, but ultimately, these
should exit the CWA fairly quickly with forward motion to the
southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Very cool day Monday in a much cooler airmass behind the late Sunday
cold front, with 70F tough to come by for the eastern half of the
CWA. This will be short-lived, however, with Canadian high pressure
that was over the area Monday shifting quickly eastward and back
into return flow and quickly warming temperatures again through
midweek. Warm front likely to set up along the fetch of Lake Erie or
near it into the same time frame, bringing unsettled weather back
with dewpoints up from the lower 50s to possibly the lower 70s and
air temperatures into the mid 80s. Expecting unsettled weather as a
result with off and on convection from Tuesday night through at
least Thursday for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are beginning to deteriorate as patchy BR/FG has
developed and as an area of showers pushes eastward across
southeastern terminals. Expect fairly widespread IFR to LIFR
conditions, primarily across inland terminals, in fog and mist.
Closer to the lakeshore, expect MVFR to IFR conditions in BR.
Fog should begin to lift near daybreak this morning, though
lingering non- VFR stratus will persist into the late morning
hours.

A line of showers and storms will develop along and east of
I-71 this afternoon and push east through this evening. Have
maintained PROB30 groups along a line from KMFD/KCLE and
terminals to the east. Non-VFR visibilities will be possible in
any storm that moves overhead a TAF site.

Light and variable winds through the overnight will become
westerly to northwesterly this morning at 5-10 knots. Winds will
briefly increase to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this
afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds tonight become west southwesterly 10kts Sunday ahead
of a late Sunday cold frontal passage. High pressure behind the cold
front turns winds northerly 15-25kts and wave heights quickly
building to 3-6ft Sunday night through Monday where a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed. With high pressure quickly moving
eastwards, winds return to offshore flow 15-20kts into midweek and
wave heights nearshore less than 2ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...26