357
FXUS61 KCLE 151805
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
205 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today and persist
into Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area
Friday night into Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. This
system will extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Outside of the potential for frost late tonight into Thursday
morning, generally quiet weather is expected for the near term
period as high pressure builds across the region.

For this morning, beginning to see radar returns across portions
of central and southern Michigan with the highest precipitation
chances likely focused along the northern half of our area
through sunrise. However, it may be difficult for much rain to
reach the surface given upstream cloud decks remaining elevated
around 9 to 10kft, in addition to mainly trace amounts of
rainfall being reported at surface observation sites.

Otherwise, high pressure will gradually build south and expand
across the Great Lakes through Thursday, leading to seasonable
temperatures in the low to mid-60s. Clear skies and light winds
late tonight will result in low temperatures falling into the
low to mid-30s across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania where a Frost Advisory remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will become more likely for the short term
period, particularly near the end of the period Saturday night.
A more widespread threat for frost and potentially freeze
conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

High pressure will remain in control for Thursday night into
Friday with clear skies and light winds resulting in low
temperatures falling into the low to mid-30s, and perhaps even
the upper 20s in some spots across Northwest Pennsylvania.
Anticipate the frost/freeze potential will be more widespread
compared to the previous night, with headlines likely needed
west towards the I-71 corridor. Otherwise, a warm front will
lift northeast through the area Friday night into Saturday which
may result in scattered rain showers, particularly across the
northern half of the area.

Much of Saturday should stay dry ahead of the approaching system
as increasing warm air advection results in well-above average
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. By late Saturday
night, widespread rain and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms
will begin to arrive from the west, aided by a modest south to
southwest LLJ of around 35 knots as as a large upper- level
trough moves east through the Upper Great Lakes. The recent
suite of model guidance is perhaps a touch slower which could
delay the heavier precipitation until late Sunday morning or
early afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather will continue for at least the first half of the
long term period as a cold front sweeps east through the area on
Sunday. Additional moderate to heavy rainfall and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms are most likely Sunday afternoon and evening,
particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor. Will need to
watch for a developing TROWAL Sunday night into Monday on the
backside of a deepening low pressure in the vicinity of the
Eastern Great Lakes, though uncertainty does begin to increase
given the volatility of the upper-level pattern.

High pressure will begin to build across the Tennessee Valley on
Monday and may expand into at least the Lower Ohio Valley,
though confidence is low on its northern extent. Another upper-
level trough is expected to race east across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes by Tuesday, though confidence remains low on any
potential impacts across the area.

Mainly seasonable weather is expected to continue for the long
term period with highs in the low to mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A
mid-level cloud deck is bringing 5-10,000 foot ceilings from
CLE-CAK points west this afternoon, but will exit to the south-
southwest this evening. There are scattered cumulus in the 2,000
to 3,000 foot range, with CLE and CAK potentially seeing
transient broken MVFR ceilings from those clouds before 20z.
Mainly clear conditions are then expected tonight into Thursday.
Winds will remain out of the north-northwest at 8 to 12kt this
afternoon, slackening slightly to <7kt overnight tonight. Winds
kick back up to 6-12kt out of the north on Thursday.

Outlook...Generally VFR is expected through Friday. Scattered
showers with a warm front may bring limited non-VFR Friday
night. Strong low pressure will track into the Great Lakes on
Sunday, pushing a cold front across the local area. Non-VFR due
to showers/thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible with this
system, especially Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected over Lake Erie
through Friday as high pressure currently over the Upper Great
Lakes builds in on Thursday and remains in control through
Friday evening. A push of 14-18kt north-northeast winds is
expected this evening through early Thursday morning, building
2-4 foot waves in the central and eastern basins (1-3 foot
west). Conditions will near Small Craft Advisory criteria in the
central basin tonight. Will closely evaluate the updated wave
forecast before sending the final marine products later this
afternoon and evaluate if a brief advisory is needed, though
potential for 4 foot or larger waves appears fairly brief and
marginal, which likely will preclude the headline. Winds will
diminish to under 15kt Thursday morning and remain under 15kt
through Friday while shifting east and then south.

A warm front will lift across the lake Friday night, allowing
winds to increase out of the south-southeast to 10-20kt through
Saturday. Winds increase further Saturday night into Sunday at
15-25kt ahead of an approaching cold front. This strong cold
front crosses Sunday afternoon or evening as deepening low
pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, shifting the winds out
of the west or northwest. Model guidance varies wildly on how
quickly the aforementioned low pressure deepens Sunday into
Sunday night, with some disagreement on the track of the low
too. Recent guidance has trended towards a stronger low tracking
to our north and northeast, which would be a favorable trend
for stronger winds over the lake, potentially reaching gales
behind the front and departing low late Sunday or Sunday night.
The current forecast has 20-30kt westerly winds behind the cold
front through Sunday night before slackening slightly to 15-25kt
Monday-Tuesday. Probabilities for peak sustained winds
exceeding gale-force Sunday or Sunday night, per the most recent
NBM v5.0, ranges from 10-30% in the western basin to 20-40% in
the eastern basin and 40-60% in the central basin. Small Craft
Advisories will be needed for all nearshore zones starting
Saturday or Saturday night into early next week. Gale headlines
may be needed for at least a portion of that window Sunday into
Sunday night. If the wind direction remains primarily westerly,
winds appear as if they`ll be strong enough to create low water
issues in the western basin late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ014-022-023-032-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan