548
FXUS61 KCLE 272328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds east towards the Mid-Atlantic tonight as a cold
front approaches from the north. The front will cross the region
Thursday evening through Friday morning. High pressure returns to
the Great Lakes region Friday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the Midwest will build east towards the
Mid-Atlantic region tonight as an upper level trough approaches from
the north. At the surface, a cold front will enter the Lower Great
Lakes region Thursday night before moving across the local forecast
area through Friday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
enter Northwest Ohio ahead of the front late Thursday morning before
pushing east across the region Thursday afternoon. Some additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of
the forecast area Thursday evening into late Thursday night as the
cold front pushes south. Some thunderstorms may be capable of gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall, but severe weather potential is
minimal given limited instability and shear (~250-500 J/kg SBCAPE
and 20-25 knots bulk shear). Rainfall amounts will generally range
between 0.25-0.75" with isolated amounts closer to 1.00" possible
along the lakeshore in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

Chilly as overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s
tonight and Thursday night with afternoon highs on Thursday rising
into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will exit to the south early
Friday morning. Widespread northwest flow over the lake will
allow for lake effect clouds and rain showers to linger across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Friday morning and
early afternoon. Another area of high pressure will build over
the Great Lakes region on Friday which will allow for any
remaining cloud cover/showers to clear the region. Below normal
temperatures will persist through the weekend with afternoon
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows dipping
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure persists through early next week and will allow for
dry weather and gradually increasing temperatures during the bulk of
the of the long term. Highs in the low to mid 70s on Sunday will
rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will return near the end of the forecast
period as a warm front approaches the local area from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours before
scattered mid-level ceilings begin to move in from the west
after 12Z Thursday morning. Showers will likely move southeast
into the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY after about 15Z before reaching
eastern terminals near or shortly after 18Z. Ceilings will lower
with the arrival of showers with low-end VFR or MVFR likely at
most terminals Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Showers
may become a bit more scattered after about 22Z, however
scattered lake-enhanced showers will likely continue through the
end of the TAF period as the cold front moves southeast into the
area. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
onwards, but instability and confidence in coverage/placement of
thunderstorms remain too low to include thunder in the TAFs at
this point.

Winds will generally be light and out of the south/southwest
tonight, although winds will likely remain elevated in the 5 to
10 knots range along the lakeshore. Winds will increase ahead of
the cold front with sustained winds to 10 to 15 knots and gusts
to 15 to 25 knots anticipated late Thursday morning through
Thursday afternoon. The higher wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots are
more likely in the higher terrain of NE OH and along the
lakeshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Thursday night with showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Non-VFR may linger through Friday in
lake effect clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Erie will back to southwesterly tonight and increase
to 15-20 knots by Friday morning, then briefly increase to as much
as 15-30 knots ahead of a northeast to southwest oriented front. The
cold front will drop south across Lake Erie Thursday evening. Small
Craft Advisories go into effect as early as 10 AM from Vermilion to
the New York waters and continue through 10 PM from Cleveland west
and until 4 AM for the waters off Lake County OH - Erie County PA.
There will also be a chance of waterspouts during that time with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of and along the
cold front.

Wind will shift to the north behind the front and decrease to 10-15
knots overnight. Can not rule out a lingering chance of
waterspouts but less conducive given the short fetch and
decreasing moisture depth. High pressure then builds across the
Central Great Lakes with improving marine conditions for the
weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for OHZ011.
     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through late
     Thursday night for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through late
     Thursday night for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10