401
FXUS61 KCLE 200739
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
239 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be pushed to the east today as a cold front
approaches the northern Great Lakes. The front will pass to the
north on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure over the middle
Mississippi River Valley will move northeast Friday night into
Saturday. High pressure will enter for Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This morning, the area is between high pressure to the east and
low pressure developing well to the southwest. Some lower clouds
are advecting into the region with the low pressure system.
However, over the eastern half of the area, mostly clear
conditions with just some cirrus may allow for enough decoupling
to get some patchy fog to form. With temperatures below
freezing, any fog may allow for some slick spots to develop, if
it becomes persistent. Will need to monitor over the next couple
of hours to see if a Special Weather Statement will be needed,
but the bulk of the issues appears to be southeast of the
forecast area.

With the area remaining in the transitional zone between systems
today, expecting cloudy but dry conditions with temperatures
near normal. The combination of a cold front passing to the
north and some slight isentropic lift will enter the region
tonight and there could be a couple spotty showers over the
area. Overall, nothing to write home about and not worth more
than a a 20 percent PoP. The main low pressure system will
approach from the southwest on Friday and PoPs will increase
accordingly with this system. High temperatures will remain near
normal in the 50s on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will be over the upper Ohio River Valley on Friday
night as an the mid-level shortwave moves through the region.
Once this feature clears the area on Saturday, the chance for
rain will also clear as the surface low will quickly depart to
the east. Therefore, will have chance/likely PoPs on Friday
night to dry on Saturday. For the remainder of the weekend, high
pressure will build in and allow for dry weather. Temperatures
will start cooler in the 40s on Saturday with the initial cold
push behind the departing low pressure system. High pressure on
Sunday will migrate east and allow for temperatures to return
toward normal in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Next week will start dry with near normal temperatures, as high
pressure dominates the eastern United States. However, a low
pressure system will develop over the central United States and
offer a pattern-changing blow to the region with a transition
back to colder than normal conditions by the end of the week.
This low pressure system will move through on Tuesday and
Wednesday and bring widespread rainfall to the region. However,
there remains some spread in the exact track and strength of the
low, which would alter both the rain timing and the intensity of
potentially strong winds across the region. For now, will have a
forecast with likely PoPs on Tuesday, but it is possible that
the wettest window timing shifts later and/or winds increase for
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
MVFR ceilings due to stratus are impacting the western 2/3rds of
the area as of 5z, including TOL, FDY, MFD and CAK. Farther east
is currently observing VFR, though the clear skies and light
winds do pose a fog concern early this morning there. Generally
expect the stratus to persist/expand east, with ceilings likely
coming down a bit more through the early morning hours. This,
along with potential for fog development where clearing took
place Wednesday evening, leads to a risk of IFR or lower
ceilings along with some vsby restrictions for a few hours
centered around 12z at MFD, CAK, and YNG. Confidence in these
conditions has increased enough to include in the TAF at these
locations, with a lower risk (20-30%) at FDY. Stratus will
linger through Thursday. ERI may continue to see intermittent
MVFR ceilings overnight, though generally is expected to prevail
VFR through the TAF period. Light east winds will shift south
on Thursday at less than 7 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions may return with rain Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet weather conditions are expected on Lake Erie as high
pressure moves eastward across the Great Lakes tonight towards
the east coast by Thursday night. Southwest flow around 10-15
knots develops Thursday night into Friday before turning
northwest and north behind a cold frontal passage on Friday.
High pressure returns over the weekend will relatively quiet
weather ensuing, though perhaps there may be a brief period of
choppiness in the central basin Friday night with north flow of
around 10-15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Saunders