922
FXUS61 KCLE 160116
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to slowly build south across the area
tonight as surface boundary shifts towards the Ohio River
Valley. This boundary will lift north late Monday into Tuesday
as a warm front, followed by a cold front moving east on
Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes were made with this
update. Can`t rule out some patchy fog inland from Lake Erie
late tonight into early Monday morning, but dense fog is not
anticipated.

Previous Discussion...
This afternoon, a very slow boundary continues to sag south
towards southern Ohio with high pressure building in behind it.
This has allowed for a dry day across the CWA, although plenty
of cloud cover persist across the area south of the lakeshore.
These clouds will likely persist given the moisture and weak
forcing associated with the boundary through much of the period.
There is an isolated chance of a few showers and rumbles of
thunder to impact the extreme far portion of the CWA, but
overall forcing and confidence in showers occurring is much
further south. Anything that does develop may briefly produce
heavy rainfall. There is no severe weather expected this
afternoon. Tonight, low level moisture lingers as conditions
begin to stabilize. This could result in patchy fog/low stratus
across the area resulting in reduced visibilities through day
break Monday. Confidence is not very high given the likely cloud
cover through the overnight hours, so will have to monitor
ceiling trends in the coming hours.

On Monday, the area will remain primarily dry through the early
afternoon before the aforementioned boundary begins to lift
north as a warm front. Frontogenetic forcing coupled with
increased diurnal instability of 1000-1500 J/kg and upper level
energy associated with a shortwave trough should produce a wider
coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area,
with NWOH being the exception and possibly remaining dry through
the period. The current model timing of these showers suggests
showers begin to develop near the cusp of transitioning towards
a non-diurnally favorable time, so at this point not expecting
anything severe. The biggest hazard with any storms that do
develop will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

High temperatures on MOnday will be a bit warmer, climbing into
the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows both nights falling
into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough originating over the Mid-Missippi Valley will
lift northeast across the area on Tuesday. An axis of deeper
moisture will be in place from Central Ohio towards NW Pennsylvania
where numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms will be focused.
Freezing levels will be high with skinny cape profiles
supporting heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop. PW
values will be near 2 inches and flooding could result if
training of thunderstorms occur with a northeasterly storm
motion. Most of our eastern CWA is in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall although the deeper moisture does start to
push east late in the day. Winds shift around to the south on
Tuesday allowing temperatures to trend warmer. Skies are likely
to scatter out in NW Ohio during the afternoon with temperatures
reaching the upper 80s. Farther east where clouds and showers
persist, temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees.

After brief shortwave ridging aloft on Tuesday night, active
weather will return mid-week as low pressure tracks northeast
through the Central Great Lakes Wednesday-Wednesday night. The next
in a series of shortwaves will lift across lower Michigan with low
pressure tracking from north of Chicago, across lower Michigan, into
southern Ontario. Much of the area can expect a capping inversion
overhead on Wednesday afternoon in the warm sector until convection
develops along some type of a pre-frontal trough during the late
afternoon. There has been some spread among long range models with
the GFS favoring a deeper and more consolidated upper level trough
that holds onto a stronger surface low over Lake Michigan into
Wednesday night while the Canadian and ECMWF have been more
consistent with a progressive solution that has the low pass
north of Lake Erie on Wednesday night. Did slow down the timing
slightly on Wednesday with thunderstorms moving into NW Ohio
later afternoon/evening and expanding north overnight. We will
need to keep an eye on timing over the coming days. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints
approaching 70 degrees. If storms move into the area near or
just after peak heating, will need to be concerned with the
potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Given the uncertainty in timing mentioned above will continue with a
chance of thunderstorms across the area on Thursday. The highest
pops will be in the east and may be able to trend these down if the
faster solution pans out. Temperatures on Thursday will drop back
closer to 80 degrees behind the front. High pressure looks to build
into the Ohio Valley on Friday with lower humidity values and a
dry forecast. Models come into better agreement towards the end
of the week with a high amplitude ridge building into the Great
Lakes region. Above normal temperatures will expand eastward
Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Generally expect VFR through this evening before some lower
stratus and perhaps patchy fog develop at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG late
tonight into early Monday morning. Guidance generally favors
MVFR conditions at worst, but KMFD will likely briefly drop to
IFR in lower ceilings for a period early Monday morning.
Ceilings will gradually rise throughout Monday morning with
widespread VFR anticipated by no later than 18Z Monday
afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift towards the region as
low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening and a few showers may move within
the vicinity of KMFD/KCAK/KYNG after 21Z. Confidence in shower
coverage is low so have introduced a PROB30 group for the time
being.

Winds will become light and variable across the area tonight,
although winds may remain east/northeasterly at around 5 knots
across portions of NW OH through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday, best chance
Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
The combination of weak low pressure over the Ohio River Valley and
a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain
northeast winds this evening. Northeast winds of 10-17 knots and
waves of 1-3 feet expected. Low pressure to the south will tend to
weaken overnight with east to northeast winds of 5-15 knots
continuing through Monday.

A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie on Tuesday with winds
veering around to the south. Southwesterly winds will be on the
increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as low pressure tracks
through the Central Great Lakes and passes north of Lake Erie.
Although some uncertainty remains with timing, this system will pull
a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds decrease quickly
behind the front so not expecting to need a Small Craft Advisory but
will be something to monitor towards mid-week. High pressure will
build into the Ohio Valley behind this system on Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04/15
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10