055
FXUS61 KCLE 051142
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
742 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) One last dry day and continued warming.

2.) Showers and storm chances return Friday night through early Saturday
night.

3.) Upper level ridge builds in through the middle of next week with
more summer-like warmth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A bit more warming today with return flow into the region and 850mb
temperatures climbing into the upper teens. With sun and a dry
ground, this will translate to widespread upper 80s across the
region ahead of a cold front that will be approaching from the west
for the first rain chances in several days beginning Friday
night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Flow aloft will become cyclonic tonight with a surface prefrontal
trough moving through, sparking the first chances for showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms in several days. During the overnight
period, instability will be hard to come by, and elevated, making
thunderstorms not expected on a scale more than isolated despite an
increase in the low level flow. Different story into Saturday with
some daytime heating aiding in the development of instability that
will end up closer to the surface. Some risk for severe
thunderstorms here with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kts to go with
around 1000J/kg CAPE and increases in surface/low level dewpoints.
In the end, damaging winds will be the greatest threat for Saturday
with the cold front coming through late Saturday into Saturday
night, taking the POPs with it by Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Quick return to upper level ridging early next week with
temperatures on the rise again and a two day dry period before
getting back into POPs midweek with another trough aloft. Heat will
begin to build with another upper level ridge into the end of next
week with what may be considered the first hot and humid weather of
the season as dewpoints could eclipse the 70F mark.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR is expected to persist through the bulk of the TAF period. A
weakening cluster of convection will push east towards
terminals late tonight into early Saturday morning, though
anticipate much of the convection to remain near the lakeshore.
Have maintained the PROB30 for this weakening convection at KTOL
between 00Z/Sat and 03Z/Sat. Another round of convection is
expected to develop Saturday afternoon and evening and have
introduced a PROB30 TSRA line in the 30-hr KCLE TAF.

Light southwesterly winds 5-8 knots this morning will increase
to 12-15 knots by Friday afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots
possible. A lake breeze will likely shift winds west-northwest
at KERI Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Limited non-VFR in a cluster of weakening showers and
thunderstorms tonight into early Saturday. Non-VFR possible
again Saturday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop
along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds generally remain between 5-15 knots through
this evening before increasing to the 15-20 tonight range
tonight through Saturday morning. A cold front will move across
the lake on Saturday evening allowing for winds to turn
northerly while decreasing to 10 knots or less by Sunday
morning as high pressure builds overhead. Light and variable
flow is expected as the high remains in control on Sunday. Winds
will favor an easterly component Monday while remaining in the
5-15 knots range ahead of an approaching low pressure system
that will enter the Upper Ohio Valley by mid-week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13