157
FXUS61 KCLE 011152
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
652 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With this update, opted to add a slight chance of showers to western
counties tomorrow as forcing associated with a weak boundary moves
into the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue to drift east through Tuesday with
gradually warming temperatures. Light, scattered rain showers are
possible Monday across the western counties.

2) Confidence is increasing that a strong low pressure will impact
the region midweek, resulting in widespread rain showers Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to influence the area as it slowly
drifts towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Tuesday. With the area
now on the backside of the aforementioned high pressure, overall
flow will become more southerly allowing for an increase in both
moisture and warmer air across the area. Highs today and tomorrow
will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s before really warming into
the mid 70s on Tuesday. As the area transitions to this southwest
flow, conditions should remain dry today. However, late tonight
through Monday there is a mid-level push of energy that is expected
to move northeast through the area which could provide enough
support for some isolated shower development across western
counties. At this point not expecting anything widespread or any
heavy rain showers, however wanted to make note of the change given
previous forecasts were dry through Tuesday. By Monday night, the
axis of mid-level energy should push east, allowing for conditions
to dry out through Tuesday. No matter what, given the proximity of
the area to the departing high and approaching low pressure, mostly
cloudy skies are expected to stick around.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The end of this prolonged period of dry weather looks to be in site
as confidence continues to increase that widespread precipitation
will impact the area Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the departing
high pressure discussed prior, a deepening upper level trough and
associated low pressure system over the north-central US is expected
to track east towards the Great Lakes region. Models are slowly
beginning to agree on the overall timing of the system through
Thursday, which essentially keeps the surface low over the region
and moves multiple boundaries east. This couples with strong upper
level support from the trough and an open stream of moisture from
the Gulf should result in multiple rounds of showers in the middle
of the week. The biggest uncertainty now is the progression of the
system once it reaches the region. Models have now begun to slow the
progression of this low, nearly stalling it over the region as the
overall pattern becomes less amplified. If this does occur, the
potential for showers could extend past Thursday possibly even
lingering into the weekend.

At this point, there are no flooding concerns with this
precipitation as it should be slow and steady limiting the localized
runoff from the dry antecedent conditions. In addition, given the
increasing temperatures into the mid 70s, cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder on Wednesday and Thursday, although overall
instability looks to be marginal given the expected cloud cover and
decreasing daylight hours. Temperatures through next weekend are
expected to remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions remain expected across the airspace today with
mostly mid-level ceilings on the back side of a high pressure
system to the east. Winds will start east to southeast this
morning before favoring a more southerly wind direction by this
afternoon. Increasing moisture and warm air advection into the
region may allow for some very light rain here and there through
the period, but no operational impact is expected and with low
confidence on locations, will continue to omit from the TAFs.
Lower VFR ceilings will enter on Monday with a warm front
formally approaching from the southwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure system will continue to slowly drift towards the Mid-
Atlantic Coast through Tuesday. This will result in south-southwest
winds of 5-10 knots to continue through Monday before increasing
Monday night to 10-15 knots from the south. These winds will be
consistent through Tuesday, allowing for waves along the southern
lakeshore of Lake Erie to remain 2 feet or less. By Tuesday night,
the aforementioned high will drift off the coast as a low pressure
system over the north central US tracks into the region. This robust
system will increase the gradient over the area and increase winds
from the south-southwest to 12-18 knots. Given the offshore flow,
waves should remain between 1-3 feet at most through at least
Thursday. Confidence begins to diminish as models diverge in
handling the progression of this low at the end of the week and into
the weekend with some models suggesting the aforementioned low
nearly stalls over the region. Will have to continue to monitor the
progression and any potential marine headlines needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...04