081
FXUS61 KCLE 280637
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
237 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Still tracking the evolution of the convection across the CWA this
early pre-dawn morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Post MCS environment with cold front coming through today and lake
enhanced showers tonight.

2) High pressure for the end of the week, but becoming unsettled again
over the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Will be focusing this part of the forecast in the wake of the
ongoing convective activity in the Great Lakes. Low pressure to
shift to the east of the CWA today with a cold front coming through
across Lake Erie by 18Z today. Expect some additional convective
activity along the cold front but the possibility for severe at this
point should be greatly diminished. Storms that form will be
fighting dry air aloft and limited instability, but thunder should
still be expected in a scattered nature as the cold front tracks
through. From there, the whole stacked low pressure system to the
east will strengthen, and create a brief period where weak trough
axes rotating through in the cyclonic flow and cool air over the
warm lake will produce lake enhanced showers late this evening into
tonight. Expecting a small amount of near surface based CAPE capped
at around 800mb with an inversion at that level. High pressure
building from the west will shut this potential for showers down
fairly quickly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure and dry weather with a cooler airmass settles into
place for the end of the week. Conditions will begin to become
unsettled over the weekend with a 500mb trough moving into the Great
Lakes via the upper Mississippi Valley accompanied with an inverted
surface trough from surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi
Valley. Will expect convective chances to increase with gradually
rising dewpoints once again and temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
An area of strong to severe convection is currently pushing
southeast across Lower Michigan into Northern Indiana and
Northwest Ohio. Expect reduced ceilings and visibilities as this
area of convection moves over terminals over the next few hours.
Have timed out TEMPO groups at all terminals in the timeframe
where there remains highest confidence in TSRA impacts to TAF
sites (roughly between ~06Z/Tue and ~10Z/Tue). Behind this area
of convection expect widespread ceiling reductions to low-end
MVFR with periods of IFR through late morning. Conditions will
gradually improve this afternoon with western terminals
improving to VFR by 18z/Tue. Expect lingering MVFR ceilings
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA terminals as a trough
lingers across Lake Erie and will give way to lake-induced
cloud cover/rain showers.

Southwest winds 5-10 knots continue overnight tonight. Behind
the convection and a surface cold front winds will turn
northwesterly and increase to 10-13 knots with widespread gusts
20-25 knots through this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and scattered showers through
Wednesday across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered thunderstorms will push southeast across Lake Erie
through early this morning with locally higher winds and waves
possible. Otherwise, elevated southwesterly to westerly winds
15-20 knots will become northerly at 15-25 knots by daybreak as
a cold front sinks south across the lake. Onshore flow will
allow for wave heights in the central and eastern basins to
build to 4-7 feet. Highest winds and waves will be in the
central basin. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards
Statements remain in effect to highlight the timeframe of
highest risk to small craft and beach goers through Wednesday
evening.

Northwest winds decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday as high
pressure approaches from the west. Light and variable flow
returns Friday with largely offshore light winds anticipated
into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     late Wednesday night for OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Wednesday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for LEZ144>148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13