173
FXUS61 KCLE 121907
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
307 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast. Trailing showers/stratiform rain
may inhibit further storm development further west, but there is
time for the atmosphere to recover slightly prior to this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front late Sunday into early Sunday night brings the next round
of convection.

2) Warm sector returns Tuesday through Thursday after a cool Monday
bringing unsettled conditions back into the fold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front pushing through the area has brought mainly showers but
also a few embedded thunderstorm this morning. Trailing showers,
stratiform rain driven by PVA aloft continue this afternoon and
early evening when activity should overall be on the wane across the
CWA. Potential fog into the overnight hours developing late where it
rained today but could be inhibited by lingering clouds in the
eastern CWA, so this could end up being more of western CWA issue.
Brief warm sector residence time into Sunday when a cold front
enters from the northwest. Low/mid level frontogenesis should be on
the increase as the front is tracking through, and see these
increases in the southeastern zones of the CWA. That is when a line
of convection with the front is expected to form, likely just south
and east of the lakeshore areas east of Cleveland associated with a
small pocket of a low level jet maximum and increasing instability
from dewpoints near 70F at the surface and a 3-5C surge at 850mb
coinciding with the aforementioned low level jet. Sufficient 0-6km
shear should organize storms into a line ahead of the cold front.
There is a potential for severe as a result, but ultimately, these
should exit the CWA fairly quickly with forward motion to the
southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Very cool day Monday in a much cooler airmass behind the late Sunday
cold front, with 70F tough to come by for the eastern half of the
CWA. This will be short-lived, however, with Canadian high pressure
that was over the area Monday shifting quickly eastward and back
into return flow and quickly warming temperatures again through
midweek. Warm front likely to set up along the fetch of Lake Erie or
near it into the same time frame, bringing unsettled weather back
with dewpoints up from the lower 50s to possibly the lower 70s and
air temperatures into the mid 80s. Expecting unsettled weather as a
result with off and on convection from Tuesday night through at
least Thursday for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
As showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northeast
this afternoon, a widespread mix of conditions are being
observed across the area. This will likely remain the case
through the evening hours with the greatest chance of non-VFR
conditions along and east of I71. Although the thunder potential
is minimal given the fairly stable atmosphere, there remains a
slight chance that KCAK and KYNG will hear a few fumbles so
opted to maintain VCTS for those sites. Around 00Z Sunday,
showers will gradually depart to the east, but conditions will
once again deteriorate as fog impacts the entire area tonight.
Highest confidence for IFR conditions are for those terminals
that are not adjacent to Lake Erie where visibilities may drop
to 2SM or less at times. Near the lakeshore confidence is lower,
however some models do suggest that high end IFR ceilings may
creep across those terminals as well. Foggy conditions will
begin to lift mid to late morning on Sunday before another round
of convection is possible Sunday afternoon.

Winds 10 knots or less will persist through the TAF period,
beginning this afternoon from the southwest before becoming
west-northwest near the end of this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Sunday
afternoon and evening. Non-VFR again possible in scattered
showers/storms Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore winds tonight become west southwesterly 10kts Sunday ahead
of a late Sunday cold frontal passage. High pressure behind the cold
front turns winds northerly 15-25kts and wave heights quickly
building to 3-6ft Sunday night through Monday where a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed. With high pressure quickly moving
eastwards, winds return to offshore flow 15-20kts into midweek and
wave heights nearshore less than 2ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...26