367
FXUS61 KCLE 170816
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
416 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area today. Low pressure
will track through the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into
early Thursday dragging a cold front through the area. High
pressure will build in across the region this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The near term forecast will bring warmer temperatures, muggy
conditions, and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
today though tomorrow. There is a ill-defined warm front near or
just north of the I-70 corridor this morning. This warm front
will continue to slowly lift northward across our area later
this morning. North of this boundary, the surface dewpoints are
in the lower to middle 60s. South of the warm front, the
dewpoints are closer to 70 degrees with a tropical like airmass.

There are some isolated to scattered showers this morning south
of the Highway 30 corridor closer to central Ohio. We anticipate
the showers to become more scattered to widespread later this
morning into this afternoon. There will be a few thunderstorms
possible especially with the daytime heating adding some energy
in the atmosphere. Precipitable water values will increase today
up to 1.9 inches with the passage of the warm front. With high
moisture content, MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/KG, weak shear and
steering flow is a good setup for showers and embedded storms
to develop throughout the day today. Some of these showers and
storms may be efficient rainfall producers with localized heavy
rainfall possible today into this evening. Organized strong or
severe convection is not expected today. The highest POPs will
be generally from Marion to Cleveland to Erie line and
southeastward. Lower POPs will be over northwest Ohio around the
Toledo area. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees where showers and storms persist more across
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The warmest
temperatures today will be over NWOH with low to middle 80s.

Most of the diurnally driven convection will slowly end this
evening after sunset. We will keep some slight to chance POPs
overnight given the moisture rich atmosphere and some weak lift
lingering over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight. Wednesday will be
a little more interesting with the potential of some strong to
severe storms moving in late in the day and evening. A shortwave
trough will track from the Cornbelt region of the Midwest into
the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A surface low pressure
system will develop and strengthen as it tracks through the
central Great Lakes region late Wednesday which will drag a cold
front across the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of this shortwave, there is a weak lead impulse wave in
the 500 mb flow that will track across Ohio around midday
Wednesday. Given the tropical like airmass and diurnal heating,
there could be a round of scattered showers and storms that
quickly move from west to east during the midday or early
afternoon on Wednesday. It does appear that if this lead weather
system kicks through, there will be enough time to quickly
destabilize the atmosphere again late afternoon into the evening
ahead of the approaching cold front. The short term discussion
will have more details about the severe weather potential
Wednesday evening. High temperatures on Wednesday will top out
in the lower to middle 80s areawide with very humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deepening upper level low pressure will be moving across Lower
Michigan Wednesday night while a surface low drags a cold front
towards the region. Ahead of the cold front MLCAPE values will
range from 1000-1500 J/kg with deep layer shear values near 30
knots. These environmental parameters will support upstream
organized convection ahead of the cold front. This convection is
expected to enter the I-75 corridor Wednesday evening.
Thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and severe hail with a chance for some
embedded tornadoes. Storms will push east across northern Ohio
Wednesday night with the cold front while decreasing in
intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger on Thursday before high
pressure gradually builds overhead Thursday night into Friday. Highs
in the mid to upper 70s behind the cold front will rise into the low
to mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows settle in the lower 60s on
Thursday night with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large scale ridging builds across the region through the long term
period. Main weather concern will be above normal temperatures
forecasted to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend.
Heat indices may approach 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Maintained
slight chance PoPs to begin the weekend as a shortwave aloft moves
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main message for aviation weather with this late night TAF
update will be mainly VFR conditions outside of scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms this morning through this evening.
There are some scattered showers down closer to central Ohio and
around the MFD area early this morning. The general expectation
for later this morning will be an increase in scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms to develop as a warm front pushes
northward across the area.

The big challenge and uncertainty with this TAF update is the
timing of heavier convection possibly impacting individual TAF
sites today. TAF updates will be more nowcasting this morning
into the afternoon and evening. We expect the most coverage of
showers and isolated heavier convection will be between 15z this
morning and 00z this evening. We have used a broad brush with
the TAF for this morning and afternoon using PROB30 groups for
-SHRA and -TSRA with brief ceilings to MVFR 3000 feet and
reduction in visibility of 3sm to 5sm due to heavier downpours
over the airfield. Outside of the scattered to widespread
convection today, expect mainly VFR ceilings. Areas that see
rainfall today may have some patchy MVFR fog 5sm along with
some low stratus that may develop around 1500 feet.

Winds will become southerly to south- southwesterly 5 to 10
knots this morning and continue through the end of this TAF
period. We can`t rule out a brief isolated wind gust of 20 to 30
knots with any heavier thunderstorm impacting an airfield.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with scattered to periodic showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance of
thunderstorms will be Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon over far northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure moving across the Upper Great Lakes region will
lift a warm front east across the lake this morning.
Southeasterly winds 5- 10 knots will shift southerly this
morning through Wednesday. Another area of low pressure
approaches from the west on on Wednesday. The low moves in the
vicinity of Lake Erie Wednesday night leading to increasing
southwesterly winds of 15-20 knots. Will continue to monitor the
potential for small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements with the mid-week system. The low exits to the east
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will drag a cold front
with it. Westerly winds will diminish to 10-15 knots through
the day on Thursday with high pressure building over the lake by
the end of the week and into the weekend. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13