453
FXUS61 KCLE 151151
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
751 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through late this
week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest Ohio tonight.

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The majority of the forecast area should remain dry through this
evening ahead of a period of unsettled weather. Low pressure pushing
east across Ontario into Quebec will lift a warm front across the
forecast area today. After a brief window of cooler conditions,
highs will rise into the low/mid 80s for most and the upper 70s for
eastern zones. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach the
region from the west as the low drags a cold front into the eastern
Great Lakes tonight. There remains some potential for an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm in Northwest Ohio where the SWODY1
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains.Primary hazard will be
damaging wind gusts. However, confidence remains fairly low
given the disjointed timing of best instability and the arrival
of the cold front. In addition to an isolated strong storm,
there remains the potential for locally heavy rainfall within
these storms across Northwest Ohio. The WPC maintains their Day
1 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across
Northwest Ohio tonight. Will continue to monitor the locally
heavy rainfall potential as recent runs of the HREF and REFS
highlight stripe of 6-hour rainfall amounts between 2 and 3
inches in their localized probability-matched mean products.

The cold front will waver across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into
Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be
likely through late week. There remains uncertainty on if any storms
will reach strong to severe limits mid to late week given the
placement of the surface boundary. Despite this, a very warm and
moist airmass will be in place with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0 inch
range. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
particulary in training showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure and dry conditions briefly return Friday into
early Saturday before unsettled weather returns. A series of
shortwaves aloft will move overhead Saturday into early next
week. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday
afternoon into Monday, though forecast confidence decreases
Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue across the airspace through at
least the evening hours. A mix of mid- and high-level clouds
will continue across the region in the warm sector today and
some diurnal cumulus may also be possible during the afternoon
hours. A weakening cold front will approach the area from the
northwest this evening into tonight. Some showers and storms
will be present ahead of this front. The best chances for TS
will be in Northwest Ohio but with the late timing and slowing
front, TS is low confidence/PROB30 at best and have maintained
some mention at KTOL and KFDY. Elsewhere, scattered showers and
some isolated storms will be possible ahead of the cold front
and slowly sag southeast across the area but may not reach as
far south as KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG, as the front loses its
southward momentum. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will fill in
across the area from north to south and continuing into
Wednesday. Winds will be generally southerly today with some
afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts. With the frontal passage,
winds will shift to the west then north.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms
Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow between 15-20 knots continue today before turning
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift
northerly and decrease to 10-15 knots behind the cold front by
Wednesday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds will continue
though late week as the cold front wavers across the Ohio Valley
region Wednesday into Thursday. No marine headlines are expected
through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...13