843
FXUS61 KCLE 021106
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Conditions remain dry across the area with no changes needed
with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions with a warming trend expected through the
week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region
through Wednesday before departing to the southeast CONUS
Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 70s warm to the 80s by
Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Warm, moist air will build over the weekend over the weekend on
account of southwest flow behind the departing high pressure,
resulting in a more humid airmass favorable for thunderstorms
development. Showers and storms are most likely ahead of a
southeastward moving upper-level trough and cold front pair on
Saturday and Sunday, with isolated showers and storms possible
lingering into Monday. Relatively weak flow aloft will keep the
severe weather threat low (although there are a few outlier
models that have better flow aloft, so perhaps still a bit of
uncertainty in that regard). However, high humidity is
forecast, with PWAT values likely to exceed 90th percentile, so
heavy downpours are likely with developed convection. Weak flow
parallel to the cold front could also slightly favor a low-end
localized flooding risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. North to northeast winds will increase
later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots, with periodic
gusts of 20 to perhaps 25 knots possible, especially at CLE/FDY.
Winds will diminish to less than 5 knots after sunset.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the week and
into the weekend as high pressure persists across the region.
Could see a brief period of 2 to 3-foot waves this morning and
early afternoon with slightly higher northeast flow around 15
knots. Waves should gradually subside by mid to late afternoon
as winds decrease to 10 knots or less. Otherwise, overall flow
will generally remain light through much of the week, before
shifting to the southwest late Friday through Saturday, 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn