808
FXUS61 KCLE 212005
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Morning and early afternoon rain and storms have exited the
area. We are now monitoring for storms to track into at least
portions of the area this evening as a cold front moves in from
the northwest.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, especially
across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. A few storms may be
severe, with damaging winds the greatest risk.

2) Anomalously-cool air mass arrives on Wednesday with lake-
effect showers possible.

3) Temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end
of the week and weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The first two rounds of convection have departed the area. A
cold front extends from southeast Lower MI into northern Indiana
and will sweep southeast across the area this evening. Organized
convection is ongoing from the Thumb of Michigan into southern
Ontario, with a few more isolated cells farther southwest along
the front. The thunderstorms occurring from MI into ON are being
aided by a vort max that`s very evident on water vapor imagery.

The thinking is that isolated to scattered convection will play
out this evening across our area. The greatest confidence,
coverage, and potential severity is expected from far Northeast
OH into Northwest PA, as the more organized activity aided by
the vort max from MI into ON builds east-southeast. Very dry
mid-levels, a warm layer around 600mb, and weaker forcing make
coverage and severity of any convection farther west-southwest
across our area more questionable. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/KG,
DCAPE values increasing to 700-1000 J/KG (higher west), and
effective bulk shear values remaining in the 40-50kt range can
support organized convection with a severe threat through this
evening, especially across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA.
Potential limitations include the generally poor mid-levels
mentioned above (especially farther west), more modest low-level
lapse rates farther east across our area due to limited
heating, and effective storm relative helicity (SRH) values
gradually weakening to 100-150 m2/s2.

Overall, there`s greater confidence in convection with
potential for a couple or few severe storms across far Northeast
OH and Northwest PA after 4 PM. Damaging winds would be the
main hazard, though a bit of hail and perhaps a low-end tornado
threat can`t be fully ruled out here. Farther west, closer to
and west of the I-77 corridor, more isolated storms are favored
as the front moves through this evening with lower confidence in
any severe weather threat. The environment can support a
damaging wind risk if we see any storms that are deep/organized
enough to become severe farther west, though overall confidence
is lower. Any severe risk should diminish by 9 PM, though a few
showers/storms may linger through about midnight as the front
continues across the area and as we potentially see a lake
enhanced shower or storm come off the lake behind the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Quite the airmass change behind the front as we head into
Wednesday. 850mb temperatures will dip to around 8C on
Wednesday, supporting surface highs struggling to get much above
70. Overnight lows will dip into the 50s and lower 60s tonight,
and then well into the 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights.
Typical colder spots from interior eastern OH into interior PA
should see some 40s one or both of those nights.

It will be chilly enough aloft for some lake effect clouds and
rain showers to come off the lake in the north-northwest flow
overnight tonight through Wednesday. This is not a particularly
noteworthy lake effect setup, just enough for meteorologists and
enthusiasts to look at the satellite and radar late tonight or
Wednesday and remark "oh, there`s some lake effect on July
22nd". Lake effect should largely wind down by Wednesday night,
though guidance suggests that a land breeze may focus some lake
effect near the south shore of Lake Erie through early Thursday,
so the forecast maintains some low POPs through early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Troughing will gradually lift out of the Northeast through this
weekend, allowing our temperatures to gradually warm from the
end of this week into early next week. Temperatures may climb
back to above normal by Sunday. There is some disagreement over
when the next system comes in, it`s possible Monday is quite
warm before the next cold front moves through. Mainly dry
weather is expected through the weekend, with more organized
shower and thunderstorm potential returning Monday into Tuesday
as the next shortwave and cold front drop in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Showers and thunderstorms are exiting out to the east currently with
MVFR ceilings behind to a line from KCLE down through KMFD. Any
remaining thunderstorms could drop visibility and ceilings down to
IFR conditions temporarily before rebounding to MVFR. VFR conditions
are seen to the west at KTOL and KFDY with a range of scattered to
broken deck from 2-5kft. A cold front will sweep in from the west
late this evening, with possible showers and thunderstorms,
generally east of KCLE and KMFD which could bring conditions down to
non-VFR. The majority of precipitation will exit to the east after
midnight with possible lake effect showers at KCLE and KYNG
overnight into tomorrow morning. There`s potential after the cold
front moves through for ceilings to drop down to MVFR as far west
and south as KMFD and east through KERI and KYNG with the lake
effect.

Winds will be out of the south to southwest at 10-15 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots. Within any thunderstorms, gusts as high as 35
knots will be possible. Winds will shift with the cold front late
this evening to be out of the north-northwest at around 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...Residual non-VFR possible through late Wednesday
evening in lake effect rain showers and clouds across the
eastern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Erie are currently around 15-25 knots out of the
west-southwest with waves 2-5 feet with the upper end of those
occurring over the open waters. A strong cold front will pass west to
east across the lake late this evening and winds will shift to be
out of the northwest at 15-25 knots. Waves will build as a result
within the near shore zones east of the islands to 3-5 feet with
occasionally waves around 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is
currently active for all near shore zones to account for the current
conditions and for the conditions behind the front. The zones to the
west of the islands will see improvements shortly after frontal
passage and the small craft will last until 4AM tomorrow morning.
For areas to the east, conditions won`t improve until late Wednesday
night. There will be increase rip risk as well from Lorain Co east
through Erie, PA with the increased winds and waves through late
Wednesday night as well. For Wednesday, there is a marginal risk for
waterspouts within showers as the lake is fairly warm and a colder
air mass moves in from the north. Conditions will improve early
Thursday morning through Saturday night as high pressure builds into
the region. Winds will decrease to less than 10 knots by Thursday
morning with waves subsiding to less than 2 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for
     OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23