953
FXUS61 KCLE 231137
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the upcoming forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler weather with occasional lake effect rain showers
across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA into early this
week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, mainly this evening.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are possible this afternoon and
evening before a prolonged period of drier weather arrives.

2 Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Currently, the potential
for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall appears minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface low pressure across southern Ontario and an upper-level
trough over the Great Lakes are expected to become closed off
and more vertically stacked while drifting east through
tonight. The system will begin to gradually weaken starting on
Monday while only slowly exiting through southeast Canada and
New England. High pressure will gradually build into the Ohio
Valley and eventually across the local area early this week,
though lingering influence from the departing closed low won`t
totally exit our northeastern counties until Tuesday.

The primary weather impact from the departing system will be
lake effect/enhanced rain showers occasionally streaming off of
Lake Erie into parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Lake
water temperatures are near 25C on average, so as 850mb
temperatures bottom out at 6-8C late today and tonight, with
700mb temperatures dipping to just below 0C and 500mb
temperatures bottoming out around -20C, impressive and deep
instability will be in place over the late summer lake waters.
Flow will generally waiver between the west and northwest
through early Tuesday before shifting more firmly offshore.

We are seeing a flareup of lake effect showers and a few storms
during the pre-dawn hours this Sunday morning as an initial vort
max and surface trough axis works across the region. There will
likely be a lull for several hours later this morning into this
afternoon, before another impressive vort max and surface trough
cross the lake the first half of tonight. This is expected to
bring another, likely more widespread, flareup of lake effect
showers and thunderstorms. Lake effect activity is possible as
far west as the Islands and Sandusky through early tonight.
Thereafter, activity will continue mainly from near the
Cleveland metro points east-northeast (and will be most
organized across Northwest PA) Monday into early Tuesday, though
will likely shut-off farther west of Cleveland as high pressure
gradually builds from the west-southwest. Lake effect is not
expected to be as intense/organized (and will have decreasing
thunder potential) starting late tonight, and may completely
stop at times. However, coverage/intensity may briefly increase
Monday morning, Monday evening, and perhaps early Tuesday as
additional spokes of mid-level energy and surface troughs
rotate around the backside of our departing closed low.

After this morning`s flareup, the main concern for organized
activity that could produce locally heavy rain downwind of Lake
Erie in short order is the first half of tonight. Rain amounts
will need to be monitored for localized flooding potential if
any more stationary bands of lake effect play out, especially
over areas that saw heavy rain on Saturday. Lower overall
confidence in impactful flooding and a likely limited potential
areal scope of any flooding that occurs precludes a Flood Watch
at this time. Some storms coming off the lake may produce small
hail through early tonight, with the potential for gusty winds
with any storms coming off the lake this evening as well. QPF
amounts from the eastern Cleveland suburbs and across the core
"snowbelt" of far Northeast OH and Northwest PA generally range
from 0.50-2.00", which is manageable on its own, though given
the very convective nature amounts will vary more than shown in
the forecast and can locally end up in the 2-4" range. That
would be where an isolated flooding concern can develop.

Across the rest of the area a good scattered of showers is
likely late this afternoon and evening as the vort max and
surface trough work through. Otherwise, a drying trend is
favored into the first half of the week as high pressure builds.

Highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s today and Monday,
coolest across Northeast OH and Northwest PA (the hills of PA
may be stuck in the low-mid 60s most of Monday), with overnight
lows largely in the 50s the next few nights. A few outlying
areas may get into the 40s Monday night where skies clear. A
gradual warming trend begins on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2..
The next upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Wednesday and
Thursday, with weak low pressure tracking well to our north and
pulling a cold front through the local area likely on Thursday.
This does not look like a very dynamic system, but will bring
the next potential for scattered showers and storms. The
greatest potential for rain appears to be late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Given weaker dynamics and amounts of instability
and moisture that appear modest, the risk for severe weather
and/or heavy rain with this system is currently minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The main weather message for aviation over the next 24 hours
will be impacts from lake effect clouds and lake enhanced
rain showers with isolated thunder possible for TAF sites in NEOH
and NWPA closer to the lakeshore. Clouds will increase with
mostly broken to overcast ceilings between 3500 and 5000 feet
downwind of Lake Erie. The variable low end VFR to MVFR
conditions will impact sites like CLE, YNG, CAK, and ERI today
through early Monday morning. Scattered rain showers with
isolated thunder possible will also impact those favored lake
effect TAF sites today through tonight. We tried to highlight
the time periods when MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions
3sm to 5sm from passing showers/storm may impact those specific
airports later today and this evening. Otherwise across NWOH and
central Ohio will stay mostly with VFR ceilings and conditions
today through 12z Monday. Winds will be westerly to
northwesterly increasing 10 to 15 knots later this morning
through the evening. Gusts up to 25 knots possible today,
especially closer to the lakeshore. The gusty winds will relax
to 10 knots or less by during the overnight before winds
becoming gusty again after 12z Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions will be likely through Monday
afternoon with lake effect clouds and lake enhanced rain showers
with isolated thunder possible for NEOH and NWPA. VFR
conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine conditions are expected on Lake Erie today through
Monday with gusty northwest winds and higher waves as well as
the risk for rip currents along the beaches/lakeshore. West to
Northwest winds will be between 15 and 25 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots today through Monday afternoon. Waves will increase
3 to 8 feet today through Monday. Waterspouts will be very
possible on Lake Erie today through Monday as well. Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for rip currents have
been issued through Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure
will slowly build in Monday night into Tuesday with conditions
on Lake Erie improving. By Tuesday, winds will be westerly to
southwesterly 5 to 15 knots and waves decreasing to 1 to 2 feet.
The southerly winds will linger into Wednesday 5 to 12 knots
and waves of 1 to 2 feet as well. The next weather system to
possibly impact marine weather will be a cold front moving
through the Great Lakes region by Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009-
     010.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77