717
FXUS61 KCLE 161127
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
727 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area this morning. A cold
front will slowly approach from the west late Wednesday before
moving southeast across the area on Thursday. The front will
linger across the Ohio Valley as high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes on Friday, though this front is expected to lift
back north this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Relatively zonal flow is expected aloft, though a few different
shortwaves will impact the region. First one is observable on
water vapor satellite, located over the the lower Ohio Valley.
While compact, substantial moisture will accompany this
shortwave trough, with dew points in the low to mid 70s and
PWATs exceeding 2" (which exceeds the typical climatological
daily max for our region). As this shortwave lifts northeast across
our region, convective activity will also increase and spread
northeastward across the area. We are already starting to see
some showers developing along the I-75 corridor, which is a
couple hours earlier than expected. Coverage will increase to
areawide/numerous showers and thunderstorms late this morning,
continuing through the rest of the afternoon/evening. Rain rates
will be maximized during the afternoon when skinny instability
of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is expected. Very high moisture
content will contribute to warm rain processes and very heavy
rainfall within thunderstorms, which may lead to localized flash
flooding, especially for low-lying and urbanized areas. The
latest HREF shows a strong signal for localized QPF amounts
exceeding 3", with the probability of >3" within 25 mi of a
given location in the 10-20% for most of the forecast area.

The Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall was maintained for the
same area today. A flash flood watch was considered but held off
due to the disorganized nature of convection this afternoon as
well as spread in model guidance (unable to really pinpoint
specific areas of greatest flash flood risk). Will monitor
trends through this morning to see if a flash flood watch is
needed for a more targeted area.

As mentioned previously, localized gusty winds with microbursts
will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, largely due precip loading from heavy
rain/high PWATs. Latest HREF continues to show some updraft
helicity tracks, though this is mostly driven by the FV3, which
is biased towards overproducing convection.

The other shortwave is currently located over the Midwest
region (SD/NE/IA/MN area) and will progress eastward into the
Great Lakes region later tonight. At the surface, deepening low
pressure (1008mb -> 1004mb) will move east across the Great
Lakes tonight to the southern Ontario/Quebec border by Thursday,
with a cold front extending southwest from the low moving
southeast across the area on Thursday. Most model guidance,
especially the latest CAMs, have really backed off the high PoPs on
Thursday that previous forecasts had and that the current NBM
still has. Instead, it looks like convection will, at most, be
isolated to scattered due to most convection initiating near a
pre-frontal trough to our south. Reduced PoPs by about 20-30% to
a max of 40-60%, with further reductions expected if this trend
continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Post-frontal temperatures will be much cooler as high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes region Thursday night through
Friday night. Temperatures will be pleasant with low in the 60s
and Friday highs in the upper 70s. The cold front is expected to
linger across the Ohio Valley, mainly to our south through
Friday night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
along this boundary, with a few of these possibly moving into
our southern forecast area. Have maintained a 20-30% PoP across
parts of central Ohio for this on Friday.

The aforementioned front is expected to waver north and south
across the Ohio Valley through the weekend, with increasing PoPs
through the weekend (generally 40-60% range). Humidity will
waver as well, with extreme humidity located so of this
boundary. Heavy rain and the risk for localized flash flooding
will accompany thunderstorms this weekend, especially for the
southern half of our forecast area. WPC already has a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the southern portion of our
forecast area, which is notable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad low PoPs in the 20-30% range remain in the forecast
through the long term period as the front continues to waver.
Uncertainty in frontal placement leads to low confidence and
reasoning for low PoPs at this time. Temperatures/humidity is
expected to relatively close to normal. The front is generally
expected to move northward away from the area on
Tuesday/Wednesday with rising temperatures/humidity expected.
Heat indices will be on the rise, although this will be more of
a concern for Wednesday when heat indices exceeding 100 degrees
may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Showers are beginning to push into the region from the southwest
this morning with a couple of areas of convection, mainly near
KMFD, though have been short lived. A TEMPO group for TSRA has
been included in for KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, and KCAK to account for
the potential until 14-16Z. The greatest potential for
thunderstorms will be in the afternoon/evening around 18-20Z
when instability will be the highest. As thunderstorms move
through, there is the potential for gusty winds up to 30 knots across
the terminals. There will be potential for heavy rainfall
within thunderstorms as well as they move through. During these
points, terminals could see IFR visibility and ceilings
temporarily. Showers and thunderstorm potential will fall off
into the late evening. A cold front will be moving into the
region from the west near the end of the TAF period and showers
will be possible around 05-10Z on Thursday.

Winds will continue to be light and variable tonight then
becoming predominately south-southwesterly at 5-10 knots by
Wednesday morning. Winds will begin to increase and veer more
westerly towards the end of the TAF period with the approaching
cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lingering showers and
thunderstorms across the south and southeast portion of the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. VFR expected Friday before Non-
VFR chances return Saturday and Sunday in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie will be quiet for today ahead of a low pressure system
and cold front with winds mainly out of the south at 5-10 knots.
Confidence continues to increase for winds of greater than 20
knots across much of lake starting early Thursday morning. A
Small Craft Advisory will probably be needed starting around
11Z Thursday morning for the entire Lake Erie nearshore. Winds
should subside from west to east across the lake throughout the
day and fall below advisory criteria by 21Z. Waves will be
building along with the increased winds and could see heights
around 5-8 feet, mainly for the central and eastern basins.
Waves will be slower to subside and are expected to decrease
below 3 feet by early Friday morning. Thunderstorms will be
another concern over the next couple of days as a few rounds are
expected to impact the lake starting this morning. There will
be increased waves and potential for gusty winds within these
storms.

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend with potential for gusty winds and increased waves.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be less than 10 knots or
less through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23