299
FXUS61 KCLE 141133
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues southeast across the area today before
lingering as a stationary front to our south. Weak high
pressure briefly builds in this evening and Tuesday. The front
front lifts back north across the area on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite indicates the upper-level trough axis is just
crossing into south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and
southern Illinois. The cold front is well ahead the upper-
level, currently east of of LPR-KMD, with an area of post-
frontal light rain west of the cold front. This light rain will
move eastward across the area through this morning. There is
unlikely to be any lightning before noon today, but retained
shower and thunderstorm wording due to some lingering elevated
instability.

Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon with the trough axis, generally east of I-77 and south
of I-90. The aforementioned cold clears the area but doesn`t get
too far as it remains just to our south as weak high pressure
builds in from the north. Patch to areas of fog will be possible
tonight, in a similar area (east of I-77, south of I-90). Some
models, such as the GLAMP, RAP, and NAM, produce a sizable area
of dense fog (with 1/4SM visibility), so will have to keep an
eye on this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at the broader picture, a weak upper-level ridge sets
up over the southeast CONUS, with broad, weak west to southwest
flow around the northern and western periphery of the ridge. In
response, the stationary front lingering to our south with lift
northward across our forecast area Tuesday night. Should see warm,
moist air build back into the region Wednesday onward through
the rest of the weak, resulting in high temperatures in the
upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Heat indices in the
90s are likely each day, largely due to the very humid airmass.

Most models have a shortwave trough moving northeast from the
mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday to right over our region
Wednesday afternoon. This could provide a regional area of
lift/forcing and limited but sufficient shear for organized
convection, though uncertainty remains in favorability for
severe weather. PoPs continue to be in the 60-70% range for
Wednesday afternoon.

Conditions will be most favorable for thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon as broad upper-level support approaches. Moderate
instability will be present with ~25 knots of deep layer shear
possible scraping our northern forecast area. CSU ML has broad
support for low end severe weather potential (5%; the equivalent
of an SPC marginal) Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday, the upper-level trough/cold front is likely just
entering the forecast area, with thunderstorms chances still in
the forecast as the cold front crosses the area. High pressure
builds in on Saturday and Sunday with much lower precipitation
chances and slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend
(we`re talking mid-80s which is still near normal for most).
PoPs in the 20-40% remain in the forecast Saturday/Sunday
despite expected high pressure. This is because high pressure is
expected to be weak, and while cooler, temps/dew points will be
sufficient for modest instability and diurnally driven isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
KTOL and KFDY will have VFR conditions as precipitation and
showers and moved east away from the terminals. KMFD and KCLE
will till have some potential to get showers lowering visibility
down to MVFR conditions early this morning until 13Z. All of
the other terminals will see temporary visibility drops to MVFR
with the rain showers as it moves east across the region.
Showers should clear the area by 16Z today and then VFR
conditions will be expected for the remainder of the day. MVFR
visibility will return tomorrow morning by 07-09Z for the
majority of the TAF sites besides KCLE and KERI. There will be
potential for fog across much of the region, with KCAK and KYNG
having the best shot at seeing reduced visibility. Opted to keep
most sites at MVFR with BR, but will need to monitor.

Winds across the region will be fairly light and variable
throughout much of the TAF period. Exceptions to this will be
KCLE and KERI, which will be impacted by a weak lake breeze
Monday between 17-01Z. Winds will shift to be predominantly out
of the northwest at 5-10 knots during this time. Winds will
become light and variable after sunset.

Outlook...Mainly VFR favored through Tuesday. Non-VFR conditions
are possible Tuesday morning with reduced visibility due to fog.
There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon and evening, mainly across the southern portion of the
area. Higher chances for non-VFR will return on Wednesday and
Thursday in showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR chances may
persist on Friday afternoon and evening in showers and
thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion of the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on Lake Erie will be fairly quiet throughout this
week with winds light and variable under 10 knots. Winds will
shift to be predominately out of the south behind a warm front
on Wednesday, but will still be light around 10 knots. Waves up
until this point will be less than 2 feet. Next chance for
increased winds will be Thursday behind a passing cold front and
winds will pick up to 10-15 knots out of the southwest. Waves
will pick up as well, mostly over the open waters, and could see
waves from 2 to 3 feet at times. There will be higher chances
for thunderstorms during this time, so winds and waves could be
higher in those instances.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23