802
FXUS61 KCLE 292318
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes region
through the weekend before building east towards the Northeast early
next week. Low pressure will drag a cold front east across the
region towards the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cool and quiet weather expected as an upper-level low lingers
over Quebec while high pressure builds over the Great Lakes at
the surface. Chilly tonight with overnight lows dropping into
the mid 40s areawide. Can`t rule out some overnight lows dipping
near or below 40 degrees across sheltered valleys and typically
cooler areas. A weak synoptic MSLP gradient accompanying the
surface ridge and sufficient nocturnal cooling of surface air
over land surrounding ~72F Lake Erie will permit land breeze
development after midnight tonight and especially around
daybreak Saturday. Localized river valley steam fog formation is
expected and patchy radiation fog formation is possible after
midnight tonight, especially along and east of I-71. Fog will
dissipate by mid-morning, following the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer. Dry weather continues
Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows on Saturday night will settle in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds towards the Northeast through the short
term with continued dry weather expected. Temperatures will rise a
few degrees through the forecast period as the high builds east.
Highs in the low to mid 70s Sunday will climb into the upper 70s by
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to build east out of the Great
Lakes region early next week. Rain chances return to the region
mid-week as low pressure approaches from the west. The low will
drag a cold front east across the local area on Thursday with
another round of chilly temperatures expected behind the front.
High temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees Tuesday
afternoon will fall into the mid 60s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
NW`erly flow aloft persists as a low wobbles E`ward across
southern QC to northern ME and a ridge builds from the northern
Great Plains. At the surface, the ridge remains centered over
the western Great Lakes and continues to build into northern OH
and NW PA. A weak MSLP gradient accompanying the ridge will
allow our regional surface winds to trend light and variable.
However, a primarily SE`erly to S`erly land breeze around 5
knots should develop along and very near Lake Erie during the
~08Z/Sat to ~13Z/Sat time period, including at KERI.

Fair weather and primarily VFR are expected through the TAF
period. However, localized river valley steam fog should
impact northern OH and NW PA between ~08Z/Sat and ~13Z/Sat.
Patchy radiation fog is possible during the same time period,
especially east of I-71, including at/near KCAK and KYNG.
Visibility should vary between MVFR and LIFR due to variable fog
density. Note: scattered to widespread lake-effect stratocumuli
with bases near 5kft AGL are expected to stream generally
SE`ward or S`ward from Lake Erie during the TAF period. These
low clouds will impact KCLE/KCAK/KYNG/KERI and may impact KMFD
at times.

Outlook...Localized fog with non-VFR is possible around
daybreak Sunday. Otherwise VFR are expected through this
Tuesday. On Wednesday, isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms with non-VFR should occur.

&&

.MARINE...
While a waterspout cannot be completely ruled out this evening
as a weak surface trough drops across Lake Erie, the concern is
fairly low overall given a relatively dry airmass and shallow
convective cloud depths. Otherwise, marine conditions will be
fairly tranquil for the foreseeable future with high pressure
building in tonight and remaining the primary weather feature
controlling our wind speed/direction through the first half of
next week. Northerly winds through tonight will shift more east
to northeast Saturday through Monday, then southeast Tuesday and
Wednesday. Speeds will generally be <15kt the next several days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sullivan