852
FXUS61 KCLE 301617
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1217 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There were no changes needed with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will allow for quiet and near-normal
temperatures into this weekend.

2) Scattered periods of showers are expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A departing cold front early this morning will allow for high
pressure to build southeast across the area today. A few light
showers are possible across far northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania early this morning before dry conditions and near-
normal temperatures return today. Highs today will be a bit cooler
than recent days with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly
sunny skies. On Saturday, highs will be in the low 60s with
increasing cloud cover expected. Overnight lows tonight will be the
coldest in northwest Pennsylvania with temperatures falling into the
low to mid 30s, but elsewhere will remain in the 40s. Lows on
Saturday night will be milder, falling into the mid to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the aforementioned high pressure drifts towards the Mid-Atlantic
Coast on Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north across the area
bringing the potential for isolated, light rain showers. The
associated low pressure and upper level trough are expected to
slowly build east into the region through midweek, increasing
the potential for showers mid to late week. Overall confidence
in the best timing for showers is low given model divergence in
the progression of the system as the dominant ridging pattern
recently observed slowly becomes progressive. Temperatures
through the period will continue to remain above normal with
high peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures climb
into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
For the most part, VFR ceilings will continue through this TAF
period. ERI may have some MVFR ceilings this afternoon. Winds
will start out from the north 5 to 10 knots becoming easterly
tonight into Saturday.

Outlook...Apart from low rain chances Monday into Tuesday,
mainly VFR expected through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
This morning, a weak cold front will continue to depart to the east,
leaving elevated northwest winds behind the boundary across the
central basin of Lake Erie. Onshore winds of 15-20 knots are
forecast allowing waves to build to 3-5 feet from Vermilion to
Conneaut OH. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
these nearshore waters through 10Z this morning.

Behind this departing boundary, high pressure will begin to build
southeast across Lake Erie which will allow winds to weaken to 5-10
knots and slowly a more easterly component into Saturday. On Sunday,
a weak warm front will lift north allowing for winds to become south-
southwesterly at 5-10 knots which are expected to persist through
Monday. As the parent low pressure slowly drifts towards the region,
increased gradient on Tuesday will allow for the southerly winds to
increase to 10-15 knots before strengthening a bit more on Tuesday
night. These elevated winds will likely occur off and on throughout
the week as the pattern becomes more progressive. At this point any
potential for marine headlines remains low given the marginal
conditions expected, but will need to continue to monitor the trend
in winds over the coming days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...77
MARINE...04