361
FXUS61 KCLE 131717
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
117 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some additional shower activity has formed early this morning
with fog and low stratus quickly filling in behind these
showers. The storms threats this afternoon and again during the
middle of the week remain unchanged.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front
this afternoon. There is potential for strong to severe storms
with gusty to damaging winds as the main threat.

2) Warm and humid weather returns for the middle of the week,
bringing additional shower and storm chances starting on Tuesday
night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Some showers have developed over the southeastern portion of the
forecast area early this morning with a piece of mid-level
energy moving through the Upper Ohio River Valley, tapping into
a moist environment. These showers should exit over the next
couple of hours. Immediately behind these showers, conditions
are clearing and allowing for a mix of fog and low stratus to
form across the area. This should only continue to build
overnight and become more locally dense with time. There will
likely need to be at least a Special Weather Statement for the
visibility at some point this morning, but a Dense Fog Advisory
cannot be ruled out.

After some recovery during the late morning hours, the main
concern of the day will be additional showers and storms
developing ahead of a cold front. By early afternoon,
temperatures should be in the 80s with dew points in the upper
60s/lower 70s. This will present enough of a warm, moist air
mass to support storm development with modest MLCAPE values.
With the storms and cold front, there will be support with the
right entrance region of an upper level jet and 0-6 km bulk
shear values will be around 40 kts, which will allow for some
organization of storm activity. The main concerns with storms
would be gusty to damaging wind gusts, although some hail could
be possible with the strongest storms. The limiting factor for
storms within the forecast area will be real estate. The front
will be moving from northwest to southeast and convective
initiation will be over the local area. By the time storms
become strong enough to merit any wind or hail hazards, they may
be south of I-90 and east of I-71 with very little of the
forecast area left to work with.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The middle of the week forecast continues to be unsettled as a
pseudo-cold front will approach the region from the northwest
as the upper ridge over/south of the area will break down a bit.
This front will generate a round of showers and storms on
Tuesday night, as some mid- and upper-level energy will be
allowed into the lower Great Lakes region. The frontal boundary
will stall out over the area and the local area will be between
a trough to the north and a ridge to the south. With warm and
humid conditions over the region supplied by the ridge to the
south, expect scattered shower and storm chances through at
least Thursday with an unsettled pattern in place. One note of
early concern is that there will be the west-east oriented
surface boundary over the region with zonal west-east flow aloft
that could favor repeated rounds of storms over the same areas,
which could pose heavy rain and flooding concerns, depending on
how things end up later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
A scattered cu field has begun to develop along and east of I71,
resulting in patchy areas of MVFR BKN ceilings, but the bulk of
terminals remain VFR this afternoon. VFR is expected to persist
today outside of any showers and thunderstorms that develop
which may briefly reduce conditions to MVFR visibilities due to
have rain. This line of convection is beginning to develop along
a lake breeze this afternoon, but is expected to become more
widespread as the cold front pushes east this afternoon. Best
timing for convection will be between 20-00Z this evening, but
a few storms are possible sooner. Primary concern with storms
that develop are locally gusty winds and heavy rain, although
some hail cannot be ruled out. Once the showers push east, VFR
conditions will return and persist through the end of the
period.

West to northwest winds of 5-10 knots will increase over the
next couple hours to be up to 12 knots at most terminals. Gusts
up to 20 knots are possible at western and lakeshore terminals
into the early overnight hours before winds gain a more
northerly component by Monday morning and weaken to 5-10 knots
again.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the lake today. Ahead of the front,
offshore flow will remain through the afternoon hours. The front
will cross the lake by evening with a quick shift to strong
northwest flow of 15 to 20 kts with cold advective flow. This
will allow for waves to build to 3 to 6 ft across the nearshore
and Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements have
been issued for tonight into Monday morning.

High pressure will build over the lake for Monday and winds will
decrease as flow shifts to the east then south. A warm front
will lift across the lake by Tuesday and stronger southerly flow
will move over the lake. A front will approach the lake on
Tuesday night and wash out south of the lake for the middle of
the week. With the frontal passage, there should be onshore flow
again for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the flow should be
weaker than tonight`s cold front since the incoming air mass
isn`t very different.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM EDT this evening through
     late tonight for OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM EDT this evening through
     Monday morning for OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM EDT this evening through
     Monday morning for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday
     for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Sefcovic