536
FXUS61 KCLE 031117
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
717 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing in a period of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, with PoPs increasing
to the 70/80% range. The latest forecast data is also trending
towards a low potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions continue with temperatures gradually warming
through Friday.

2) The weather pattern will change for the weekend, allowing for
showers and storm chances for Saturday through Sunday. There is
low potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the Great Lakes region will allow for
continued dry and seasonable weather. As high pressure departs
to the southeast, southwest flow will allow for temperatures in
the 70s today to increase into the 80s Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper-level trough and cold front move southeast across the
Great Lakes region Saturday and Sunday. Southwest low-level flow
and continued building of humidity will allow for a broad
favorable region for scattered showers and thunderstorms early
Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon, though there is
focused period of better forcing Saturday afternoon/evening,
with a period of 70-80% PoPs (an increase from the previous
forecast).

Latest model guidance has been trending towards a slightly more
favorable solution for a marginal severe weather threat
Saturday afternoon. All three major model ensembles
(GEFS/ENS/CMC), have stronger flow aloft compared to the last
few cycles (resulting in better forcing and deep-layer shear).
Uncertainty is primarily with timing of synoptic-scale features,
and with run-to-run consistency with model guidance.

Consequently, the risk for flooding has decreased somewhat.
Stronger flow should yield faster storm motions, reducing the
residence time of thunderstorms over any one particular
location. The high-end QPF signal in the NBM, particularly in
the 90-95 percentile range, has decreased compared to previous
cycles, further limiting the flood risk. However, high
PWATs and other moisture indicators still support efficient
rainfall rates within thunderstorms, which could result in
minor, localized flooding in flood-prone locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Winds will increase out of the north to
northeast this morning into the afternoon, enhanced by a lake
breeze, 4 to 7 knots. Winds will gradually become light and
variable and may favor a slight southerly direction at times
late this evening and overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR becoming more likely in showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the week and
through the weekend as high pressure persists across the
region. Overall flow will generally remain light through much
of the week, before shifting to the southwest late Friday
through Saturday, 10 to 15 knots, ahead of a low pressure
system and cold front. Winds will shift towards the northwest
behind the front on Sunday, around 10 knots. Some thunderstorms
are possible with the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening
which could pose a strong wind threat.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn