301
FXUS61 KCLE 132333
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
733 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms return overnight and through
Friday south of/near the 30 corridor.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will return Saturday night through
Sunday with a low pressure system and cold front. Heavy rain is
likely Saturday night, with a few stronger storms possible
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As the stationary front continues to sag south, a ridge will
begin to build through the remainder of today and into the
weekend. An embedded shortwave within this pattern will promote
moisture transport into the area tonight and into Friday. The
latest model runs show the best chance for precipitation along
and south of the 30 corridor, with the highest PoPs in Marion,
Morrow, and Knox counties Friday morning. There is a chance for
an embedded thunderstorm or two, though mainly rain showers are
expected. Additional rainfall amounts should remain below one-
half inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The next period for unsettled weather will be Saturday night
through Sunday as a low pressure system moves east through the
Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area Sunday
night. A period of heavy rain is becoming more likely Saturday
night as a highly-anoamlous moist air mass, characterized by
PWATS exceeding 2.0 inches, enters the area. The latest
guidance appears to be trending the strong to severe storm
threat further south and southeast of the area as any
redevelopment in the afternoon will likely focus along the
residual boundary from the overnight convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Areawide VFR conditions will deteriorate as patchy fog develops
and rain showers move over southern terminals from the
southeast. Ceilings should remain in the high MVFR to low VFR
range (roughly 2-4 kft) with visibilites reducing to 2-4SM.
Conditions should improve after daybreak Friday. Isolated
showers may hang around southern terminals Friday morning and
afternoon so have a VCSH at southern TAF sites.

Light and variable winds overnight tonight will become east-
northeast while increasing to 5-10 knots Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected to persist across Lake
Erie into this weekend as the area remains on the northern
fringe of a stalled boundary across the Ohio Valley. This will
keep winds variable and under 10 knots into Saturday. On
Saturday, the aforementioned boundary will begin to lift north
as a warm front which will be followed by a cold front on Sunday
into Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
beginning Saturday and persist into Sunday. Southerly winds on
Saturday will keep the highest waves along the northern
lakeshore before winds back behind the cold front Sunday and
become northwesterly. This shift may result in waves building
1-3 feet across the central and eastern basins, however given
the magnitude of the low, not expecting any marine headlines at
this point. High pressure returns for the start of next week and
calm conditions persist.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04