090
FXUS61 KCLE 021746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the Atlantic Coast will build eastward as low
pressure over Canada drags a cold front across the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. Another cold front will pass through the local
area on Friday before high pressure builds overhead for the weekend
and start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak upper level low remains stationed over the Northeast while a
surface ridge of high pressure continues along the Atlantic Coast.
These features will gradually exit the region as a deepening upper
level low dives southeast from Central Canada into the Great Lakes
region. Dry weather with near normal temperatures remain in place
through Wednesday as the region remains under the influence of the
ridge ahead of the next system.

Overnight lows tonight will generally settle in the low to mid 50s
with upper 40s likely across extreme eastern zones of Northwest
Pennsylvania. Seasonable on Wedneday as high temperatures rise into
the upper 70 to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday
night with precipitation entering western zones after 8 PM.
Widespread rainfall with a few thunderstorms will move across the
area as the front pushes eastward through late Thursday morning.
Heavy rainfall is possible during this period as PWATs rise to ~1.50
inches, near the 90th percentile, and storm total QPF amounts range
between 0.50" and 0.75". Severe weather threat remains minimal given
the timing of the frontal passage. The front will exit the local
area by Thursday afternoon while the parent upper level trough
remains over the Great Lakes region. A brief dry window is expected
Thursday night into early Friday before a secondary cold front
swings across the region bringing a chance for lake enhanced showers
across the eastern half of the forecast area.

Highs on Thursday rise into the mid to upper 60s with warmer highs
in the mid 70s on Friday. Mild overnight lows Wednesday night in the
mid 50s will drop into the upper 40s behind the cold front Thursday
and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect rain showers will continue across extreme Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania on Saturday before Canadian high pressure
builds over the region into early next week. Cooler temperatures
with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s through Monday. As
the high builds east, high temperatures will rise into the mid to
low 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this TAF
period. This afternoon, a diurnal cu field has begun to develop with
ceilings generally 5-10kft. These clouds should dissipate overnight
before more widespread clouds push east at the end of this period
and into the next. Winds through tonight will be light and variable
before becoming sustained from the southwest at 5-10 knots
Wednesday morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing the potential for
non-VFR conditions. Additional non-VFR possible in lake-enhanced
showers Friday evening into Saturday.&&

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds across Lake Erie today will gradually become
southwesterly at 10-15 knots Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold
front moves into the western Great Lakes region. As this front
approaches and begins to move east across Lake Erie Wednesday night,
an increased gradient will result in southwest winds increasing to
20-25 knots. As this front pushes east early Thursday, winds will
become northwesterly at 15-25 knots, resulting in waves across the
central and eastern basin building to 4-6 feet. By Thursday evening
the winds will shift back to southwesterly at 10-15 knots as another
cold front approaches from the west. This cold front is expected to
push east on Friday into Saturday. This will once again increase the
gradient and southwest winds to 25-30 knots ahead of the boundary
before shifting to northwesterly at 20-25 knots by Friday night.
This will once again build waves to 4-6 feet. With the quick back to
back fronts, a long duration marine headline may be needed, but will
monitor timing for that. In addition, there is expected to be a high
risk of rip currents during this period. By Sunday high pressure
returns and shifts the lake conditions back to calm.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04