970
FXUS61 KCLE 110010
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
810 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits to the east tonight as a low pressure system
moves east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. The
low will drag a cold front east across the area on Saturday before a
trough lingers across Lake Erie Saturday night into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will exit to the east as an upper level closed low
moves towards the Great Lakes region. Showers will enter the region
as the low moves overhead tonight into Saturday. Best chances for
showers will occur downwind of Lake Erie across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Higher coverage of showers expected
across Northwest Pennyslvania as the upper level low moves
directly overhead. The low will weaken on Saturday night leaving
behind troughing and lingering lake effect rain showers.

Warmer overnight lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s,
slightly cooler in the lower 40s across Northwest Pennsylvania.
Afternoon highs on Saturday will rise into the low to mid 60s
areawide. Widespread lows in the 40s are expected on Saturday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will likely linger through Sunday as the trough remains
across the region. A coastal low pressure system will exit the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday and will pull the trough with it.
This will allow for an upper ridge to build into the region with
showers gradually diminishing Monday into Monday night.
Widespread high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s are
expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will settle in mid to
upper 40s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly dry weather with periods of lake effect rain showers are
expected through the long term. Likely remaining dry on Tuesday
despite a cold front pushing across the region. Some lake effect
rain showers may impact the region on Wednesday as an upper
level trough sags south across the Great Lakes on Wednesday
ahead of surface high pressure moving towards the region. For
now kept PoPs for the middle of next week in the 20-30% range.

Warm on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s ahead of the cold front.
Highs will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s behind the cold front
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions remain in place ahead of a cold front that will
cross the area Saturday morning through early afternoon. The
airmass ahead of the front is very dry and coverage of showers
upstream is limited. Best chances of showers will be focused
towards ERI between 12-16Z with a chance of showers continuing
into the afternoon. Other locations such as TOL/CLE/YNG could
see a shower but is expected to be brief and of limited
impacts. Otherwise there is some potential for MVFR ceilings
mainly at CLE/ERI/YNG and have included TEMPO groups to cover
this as ribbons of moisture are somewhat narrow within the
broader dry airmass.

Southerly winds of 5-8 knots expected tonight, except at ERI
where some gustiness is possible tonight. Otherwise a wind shift
to the west and north is expected between 10-18Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR with sct-bkn low ceilings are possible
downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow may approach 20 knots in the nearshore
tonight, though a small craft advisory is not expected. A weak
cold front crosses Lake Erie late tonight into Saturday morning
with flow become northwest. There is a low chance for
waterspouts on Saturday and Saturday night. Light and variable
conditions on Saturday will give way to east to northeast flow
through Monday night with speeds averaging around 15 knots. Wind
speeds could briefly approach 20 knots Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. A weak cold front moves across the lake on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Saunders