004
FXUS61 KCLE 161150
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
750 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is now a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms and a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for locations
roughly along and south of US-30.

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday as
a front wavers across the Ohio Valley.

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the region
today. Showers and thunderstorms over Lake Erie will eventually move
onshore early this morning and sink south across Northern Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania through this morning. The front will stall
south of the forecast area this evening with additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms continuing as shortwaves aloft move over
the region. There remains some potential for an isolated strong to
severe storm along and south of US-30 this afternoon and evening.
SPC has placed that portion of the forecast area in the SWODY1
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the threat of damaging wind gusts.
Hard to flush out specifics regarding timing and placement of
additional rounds beyond this evening given discrepancies within the
various 00Z CAMs. Maintained at least a chance PoP in the forecast
with this update.

Additionally, heavy rainfall remains a threat as showers and storms
train over the same locations and with area PWATs rising into the
2.0-2.25 inch range. WPC has included the southern half of the
forecast area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall
today. Both the HREF and REFS LPMM/PMM highlight the potential for a
locally higher swath of heavy rainfall along the US 30 corridor.

The front will sag south during the day Thursday as Canadian high
pressure builds overhead from the north. The forecast is continuing
to trend drier Thursday night through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure exits to the east Saturday as a low moves east across
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. The low will lift a warm
front northeast across the region Saturday before another cold front
sinks southeast Saturday night into Sunday. Main concern for this
timeframe will be the heavy rainfall threat. Area PWATs remain high
with the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across Lower Michigan
into Northern Ohio. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4)
across the western half of the forecast area for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
As one batch of showers and some embedded thunderstorms exits
east into western Pennsylvania, a larger area of rain and some
embedded thunderstorms is congealing over western Ohio and
Indiana. This will spread east this morning but may wane a bit
in intensity as it enters our more stable airspace. This batch
of rain and its remnants will usher in lowering ceilings across
the area with most locations getting to MVFR. Outside of
nowcasting current convection, it is hard to pinpoint how much,
if any, TS will develop later this afternoon and evening and
have left out of the TAFs due to low confidence. However,
additional rain activity will be expected this afternoon with
some amount of MVFR impacts. Tonight, the front will sag south
and allow a slightly cooler air mass into the area. This will
allow for the overnight batch of rain to potentially lower
ceilings further into the IFR range for some folks. Winds are
starting generally southerly to easterly but will shift around
to the north to northeast through the day with the front sagging
southward.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms
through Thursday night. Non-VFR possible with showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Flow will oscillate between northerly to northeasterly while
remaining between 10-15 knots today through Thursday. Northerly
onshore flow increases to 12-18 knots Thursday night into Friday
which may briefly lead to choppy conditions across nearshore zones
in the central basin. Friday evening into Sunday winds will waver
between easterly to northeasterly at 12-18 knots. Wave heights may
build to 2-4 feet across the nearshore zones in the eastern basin on
Sunday under northwest flow 15-20 knots. Numerous rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the lake now through
Thursday and again Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...13