881
FXUS61 KCLE 121150
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
750 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Patchy fog possible across Western Ohio this morning as clouds clear
out. Probability of record high temperatures continues to increase
for Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather expected Tuesday through the middle of the week
with record high temperatures possible on Tuesday.

2) Brief dry period expected Thursday before a strong low pressure
system moves through the region with rain, strong winds, and the
coldest air of the season Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The low pressure system that brought showers the previous days will
continue to exit off the east coast this morning and the low level
clouds behind will begin to dissipate from west to east. The drier
air in Eastern Indiana as been slow to move into the western
counties of the CWA this morning. As it does clear out, there will
be potential for patchy fog across Western Ohio this morning. Though
how far east it reaches is uncertain given the slow clearing and
will assess the need for an SPS over the next few hours. Afterwards,
high pressure will nose in from the south and dry weather is
expected today.

An unsettled pattern begins late tonight into early Tuesday as a
weak shortwave moves through the upper Great Lakes. Rain chances are
low currently and confined to Northern Ohio and Northwestern
Pennsylvania since there will be a decent amount of dry air to fight
with to the south. There will be warm air advecting into the region
as flow shifts to be out of the west leading to some instability
developing across the region so thunderstorms will be possible if
precipitation does develop. Additionally, with the warm air
advection, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s across
the region Tuesday afternoon and will rival record high temperatures
for the day. The best areas to see records broken will be at most
Ohio climate sites with Youngstown staying a few degrees under and
Erie staying in the upper 70s. Record highs for the day can be found
below in the climate section.

The better chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms will be late
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front sweeps north to south
across the region. Given the timing of the front, instability will
be minimal so not anticipating much more than general thunderstorms
at this point. This front will settle to the south across the Ohio
Valley during the day Wednesday. Rain chances will be lower during
the day, but will increase further south into Central Ohio. With
expected rain showers, temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler in
the low to upper 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Canadian high pressure briefly builds in from the north late
Wednesday into Thursday. A strong upper level trough begins to
develop across the Canadian Prairies that will phase with a cut off
low located across the Southwestern CONUS. This trough will rapidly
deepen as it progresses eastward into the Great Lakes region late
Thursday. The associated surface low will have a similar
strengthening across the Great Lakes and a strong cold front will
move through on Friday. There`s still quite a bit of model
discrepancies with this system and how it phases with the cut off
low across the southwest. This leads to varying timing and strength
of the upper level trough when it moves through the region. The GFS
has trended slower than both the Euro and Canadian models and has
been slightly deeper with colder air advecting in behind.

Regardless, this set up with bring in strong winds beginning Friday
morning into Saturday with rain showers expected during that time
frame as well. Additionally, this will usher in the coldest
temperatures of the season so far for Saturday and Sunday mornings
with chilly wind chills as well due to the gusty winds. How cold
it will get is uncertain due to the reasoning mentioned above
with model guidance. Lingering lake effect showers are likely
across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday
into early Sunday. Will definitely be a system to watch how it
develops as the need for wind headlines will be possible. High
pressure builds into the region Sunday with dry weather expected
and temperatures beginning to moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Overcast skies with MVFR to LIFR ceilings and patchy
drizzle/fog will continue for a couple more hours this morning.
Cloud cover will gradually dissipate through the morning hours
and possibly into the early afternoon, giving way to VFR
conditions in high-level cirrus. Light, isolated showers are
possible at KCLE, KERI, and KYNG late tonight into early
Tuesday morning.

Light winds this morning become south to southwesterly 6-10
knots later today through tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with periodic rain showers late
tonight through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across Lake Eries this morning will continue to be out of the
southwest, though will increase throughout the day to 10-15 knots by
the evening. By Tuesday morning, winds will increase to 10-20 knots
due to a low pressure system moving north of the lake. Waves as a
result will build to 3-5 feet across the open waters of the central
and eastern basins. The waves in the near shore zones should remain
lower due to the off shore flow from the southwest. Winds and waves
will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday behind a cold
front passing north to south over the lake. By Wednesday morning
winds will be less than 10 knots out of the north with waves 2 feet
or less. Thursday morning, high pressure briefly builds north of the
lake and the winds shift to be out of the northeast at 10-15 knots
and persist through the day.

By Friday, a strong low pressure system will pass through the region
and winds will increase behind the cold front to near gales Friday
evening into Saturday. There`s still plenty of uncertainty regarding
this system and will need to be monitored over the next few
days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
Northwest and North Central Ohio on Tuesday. Records for October 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


Date    Toledo    Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron    Youngstown    Erie

10-13  83(1975)   84(1969)    82(1969)    82(1969)   83(1969)    83(1983)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...23