175
FXUS61 KCLE 291145
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
745 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation forecast is trending drier Sunday into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from scattered
rain showers tonight, will continue into Sunday.

2) Better chance for rainfall will come early to mid-week next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface ridge of high pressure extending from the New England coast
will exit the region today as a cold front approaches from the Upper
Great Lakes region. Ahead of the cold front, southerly flow
will warm high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, roughly
10-15 degrees above normal for late October. A few sites have
the potential to approach or reach record warm high
temperatures for today. The cold front will arrive in Northwest
Ohio this afternoon and gradually slide southeast across the
forecast area through late tonight. Scattered showers will be
possible along the front with precipitation chances remaining
between 40-50% with locally higher chances (50-70%) across
portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where
better upper level support is present. Cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder across Northwest Ohio late afternoon/early evening as
MLCAPE values of 200-400 J/kg are forecast.

Dry weather returns Friday and Saturday as another area of high
pressure builds across the region. Slightly cooler, albeit
still above normal, with highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday
behind the cold front. Chilly overnight lows Friday night in the
40s for most and the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain of
Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There remains some discrepancy between medium/long range models
regarding rain chances Sunday night into Monday. Overall, the
forecast is trending drier for that time frame as the aforementioned
surface high centered over the region may inhibit rainfall. The high
pushes to the east early next week as a broad upper trough digs into
the central and eastern CONUS. Models seem to be in a bit better
agreement with this system bringing appreciable rainfall to the
region sometime middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at local terminals
through 21Z. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest
after 21Z and will be accompanied by scattered showers with a
very low potential for thunderstorms. Timing of showers are
roughly TOL 22-01Z, CLE 23-02Z, and ERI 00-04Z. Showers will
reach some inland terminals but also expect to see a general
decreasing trend as the front pushes south through the evening
so only included showers in the vicinity at MFD/CAK/YNG. Brief
MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with showers.
Otherwise several terminals will experience breezy southwest
winds gusting to around 20 knots ahead of the front, shifting to
the west/northwest behind the frontal passage between 00-06Z. A
few higher wind gusts to 30 knots are possible with showers.

Outlook...Mainly VFR. Low confidence in non-VFR with rain
Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-20 knots this
morning ahead of a cold front before shifting northwesterly 10-15
knots behind the front. Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet
in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage
through early Friday morning. Northerly winds diminish to 10-15
knots as high pressure returns on Friday before the high exits
to the east on Saturday and winds 10 knots or less shift
easterly. Offshore flow 10 knots or less will continue into the
early part of next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth
today. Here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on October 29th:

Date    Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron      Youngstown  Erie
10-29   79(2024)   79(1922)    78(2024)    77(1900)   77(2024)    77(2024)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13