946
FXUS61 KCLE 052336
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
736 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slightly increased chances for lake-effect rain showers late
tonight and Sunday morning in NW and north central Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and much less humid conditions will move in tonight,
and a NE flow will bring lake-effect showers to NW and north
central Ohio late tonight into Sunday morning.

2) Seasonable and dry weather is expected Sunday afternoon
through the rest of the holiday weekend before a brief period
of hot, humid, and unsettled weather returns mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid/upper water vapor loops this afternoon show the broad
ridge finally being shunted farther west into the Plains as a
trough deepens across the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. This
will bring the much anticipated airmass change by this evening
and tonight as Canadian high pressure at the surface builds down
across the Great Lakes. A secondary cold front currently sinking
south and west through the area is advecting in the lower dew
points, with surface observations falling into the 50s in far NE
Ohio and NW PA. These lower dew points will continue to spread
south and west behind the front through the evening.

The drier air and high pressure will allow for a pleasantly
cool night, with lows in the low/mid 50s away from the lake.
This will set up a much different day Sunday, with skies
becoming mostly sunny and highs only in the mid/upper 70s. The
one caveat to the cooler, quieter weather is growing potential
for lake-effect rain showers tonight through Sunday morning. NE
boundary layer flow will lead to bands of showers impacting NW
and north central Ohio, especially between the islands and
Toledo, but areas immediately near the lakeshore from Lorain to
Erie, PA could be clipped by brief showers as well. Increased
POPS for this potential late tonight into Sunday morning. The
long northeasterly fetch and 850 mb temps falling below 10 C
will support a few hundred joules of lake induced CAPE, and low-
level convergence will also aid in band development, so
confidence is increasing for showers. Relatively shallow low-
level moisture should at least keep the activity fairly light.
Otherwise, the seasonably cool and dry weather will continue
through Labor Day Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The large Canadian high will drift into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday
and Tuesday night as the central CONUS mid/upper ridge once
again expands east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This
will set up return southerly flow and advect the hot and humid
air back into the area for midweek. Highs Tuesday will get back
into the low/mid 80s with a noticeable increase in humidity, and
some 90s are possible Wednesday as the heat and humidity becomes
firmly reestablished. Shortwave energy topping the building
ridge Tuesday night/Wednesday morning combined with a low-level
jet impinging on the lifting warm front could spark some showers
and thunderstorms in NE Ohio and NW PA, but left things dry at
this time. Better potential for showers and thunderstorms will
come late Wednesday and Wednesday night as a strong northern
stream mid/upper shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes with
a deep associated surface low progressing through northern
Ontario and Quebec. This will push a cold front through the
region Wednesday night. Depending on timing of the frontal
passage, strong to severe storms will be possible since jet
dynamics look impressive. The front will be slow to push south,
so expect showers to continue Thursday, especially south of a
Findlay to Youngstown line before Canadian high pressure returns
Friday and Saturday. So, after the brief midweek heat and storms,
cooler, drier, and less humid air will return Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Terminals have dried out with widespread improvement to VFR this
evening. By early Sunday morning some patchy fog may develop
along the I-75 corridor. A brief period of MVFR visibilites is
possible at KTOL/KFDY through daybreak. Outside of any fog,
widespread VFR is expected across terminals through the TAF
period. SCT/BKN ceilings of 5kft remain possible during Sunday
afternoon.

North to northeast winds of 5-10 knots will become light and
variable overnight tonight. North to northeast winds return
Sunday morning and continue through the period with occasional
gusts nearest the lakeshore on Sunday up to 20 knots.

Outlook...Non- VFR possible with isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As a cold front moves south of the area today, north to
northeast winds will gradually increase to 10-20 knots into
Monday. This wind direction should result in waves building
across the central basin to 2-4 feet. There may need to be a
Small Craft Advisory, especially for Sunday afternoon, but given
the overall weak flow and very marginal conditions opted to not
issue one now. Calm conditions return Monday evening through
Tuesday before a more robust low pressure system impacts the
region on Wednesday. The increased gradient with this midweek
system should increase southwest winds to 20-25 knots and will
likely require additional marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04