042
FXUS61 KCLE 272330
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
730 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Precipitation chances
for Thursday continue to trend later.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue through Wednesday with dry,
seasonable weather expected. Precipitation returns Thursday with low
confidence in timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to build across the northern Great Lakes
through Wednesday with pleasant, seasonable weather expected.
Temperatures through then will be in the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows down into the low to mid 50s. The low pressure off
the east coast currently will start to drift westward this evening
and there will be a low chance in precipitation across far NE OH and
NW PA, but confidence is low since there will be plenty of dry air
across the region to compete with. The next chance for precipitation
will be with a low pressure system moving into the region from the
west on Thursday. There`s still low confidence on this system as
model guidance has continued to vary with timing as it moves
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR will persist through this evening before clouds move west
over eastern terminals and patchy fog and areas of low stratus
develop at inland terminals late tonight/early Monday morning.
In locations that experience fog (best chance KMFD), IFR
conditions are likely and LIFR conditions are possible. Eastern
terminals will experience MVFR ceilings as clouds move in from
the east, although there may be a brief period of IFR conditions
at KYNG early Monday morning. Confidence in IFR conditions is
highest at KERI. Some lower ceilings may attempt to move into
the vicinity of KCAK early in Monday morning, but confidence in
the westward extent of the cloud shield is too low at this
point.

Winds will largely be out of the north at 10 knots or less
through the TAF period, although KERI will likely experience a
more northeasterly wind direction through Monday morning.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non-
VFR possible in scattered showers on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
There will be choppy conditions across Lake Erie beginning this
evening with onshore winds increasing to 10-20 knots and waves
building to 2-4 feet. This will continue through Monday afternoon
when the winds and waves begin to subside to less than 10 knots and
less than 2 feet across the lake. High pressure will build back
overhead during the middle of the week and winds will then shift to
be out of the south by Tuesday night at 5-10 knots. Low pressure
begins to move into the region early Thursday and winds will
increase out of the south-southwest to 10-15 knots through the late
evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23