338
FXUS61 KCLE 140141
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain across the region through Saturday
before pushing south into the Ohio Valley by Sunday. The front
will lift back into the area as a warm front Monday night into
early Tuesday and likely stall to the north of Lake Erie through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

Further increased the coverage of likely PoPs over the next few
hours as light rain and embedded heavier convective cells expand
across the region. This is in response to deepening moisture
advection and isentropic ascent ahead of the slowly ejecting
mid-level low/trough over the Mid Mississippi Valley. The
coverage of convection will remain isolated and closer to the
stalled frontal boundary where the highest PWATS and moisture
convergence are intersecting weak instability, but all areas
will see light rain soon if it is not already raining. Given
PWATs of 1.7+ inches along a Mansfield to Youngstown line near
the front and weak, skinny CAPE profiles, locally heavier
rainfall will occur with any of the isolated cells the rest of
this evening and overnight.

6:30 PM Update...

Showers and pockets of embedded thunder will slowly drift
northward through the evening, so increased the likely PoPs
across the southern and western half of the area. The lakeshore
areas and NE Ohio and NW PA are still fighting drier air, so
confidence is lower in terms of coverage in those areas, but
all areas should see some rain by Midnight. Any heavy rain will
be localized to embedded convection, so the main message
continues to be gradually increasing coverage of mainly light
rain, with localized heavier amounts, through the evening.

Original Discussion...

Unsettled weather will continue through the near term period as a
frontal boundary settles over the region. Scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with rain
chances increasing further this evening as better moisture
advects into the region and low pressure begins to move east
along the front from the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Widespread
showers are anticipated across the area tonight through Saturday
morning with rain chances most likely decreasing in northern
zones by late afternoon as the front sags to the south.
Additional showers (and possibly thunderstorms) will likely
continue south of U.S. Route 30 into Saturday evening, but
latest guidance suggests that the cold front will temporarily
shift south of the CWA late Saturday night, allowing PoPs to
decrease areawide.

Precipitable water values will be in the 1.5 to 1.8" range through
at least Saturday, which is above the 90th percentile for sounding
climatology. Heavy rainfall rates in addition to training due to
light flow that is parallel to the frontal boundary may result
in localized flooding this afternoon through Saturday. The
severe weather threat is low, but can`t rule out a few instances
of gusty (but still sub- severe winds) in wet thunderstorm
downbursts.

Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night with highs in 70s
expected for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal boundary will most likely push south of
the majority of the area for the short term period. However, there
will be sufficient moisture and lift for a continuation of
shower/thunderstorm chances primarily in southern/southeastern
zones, primarily during peak diurnal heating Sunday and maybe even
Monday. Confidence in dry weather for the short term period is
highest Sunday night with slightly lower confidence as the frontal
boundary lifts north into the area Monday night.

Temperatures will gradually warm Sunday through Monday. Highs in the
70s Sunday will give way to highs in the 80s across most of the area
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley will lift northeast across
the region by Tuesday and likely stall to the north of Lake Erie
through Wednesday, resulting in the return of moist return flow,
warm temperatures, and increasing shower/thunderstorm chances during
the long term period. A cold front/upper trough will cross the area
at some point Thursday with upper troughing possibly lingering
through as late as Friday. PoPs will peak in the warm sector during
peak heating Wednesday and with the cold front Thursday. Can`t
completely rule out organized convection with the cold front passage
Thursday, but still far too early to discuss any severe weather
potential. Temperatures will likely cool behind the cold front
on Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Showers will continue to slowly expand north and northeastward
into all areas this evening and tonight, but it will take until
08 or 09Z for the steadier rain to reach far NE Ohio and NW PA.
Cigs and visibilities will stay VFR for several hours after the
rain begins, but all sites will eventually fall to IFR late
tonight and Saturday morning. Confidence decreases Saturday.
The steadiest rain will definitely exit by mid morning leaving
behind low clouds and mist (IFR to MVFR conditions), but there
could be just enough breaks in the clouds for some afternoon
thunderstorms in southern areas. Model guidance differs on how
much develops, so timing and coverage is very uncertain, but
added VCTS to KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG Saturday afternoon.

Winds will generally be N to NE at 5-10 knots tonight and
Saturday, but some variable directions is expected around KMFD,
KCAK, and KYNG due to the quasi-stationary frontal boundary
oscillating over the southern half of our region.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and thunderstorms
this weekend through Wednesday, especially Sunday afternoon and
again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 8 PM EDT Saturday for
nearshore U.S. waters from Reno Beach to Ripley. A Beach Hazards
Statement for a high risk of rip currents is in effect along the
Lake Erie shore from Ottawa County, OH to Erie County, PA until
8 PM Saturday. A west-to-east-oriented front will continue to
waver in vicinity of Mid-OH through this Monday as multiple lows
move E`ward along the front. Simultaneously, a ridge attempts
to build from the northern Great Lakes and southern QC. NE`erly
winds around 10 to 20 knots and waves of 1 to 4 feet are
expected through about sunset Saturday evening. SE`erly to
NE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of mainly 3 feet or
less are expected Saturday night through Sunday night. Any
lingering 4 footers east of The Islands should subside to 3
feet or less by the wee hours of Sunday morning. On Monday,
variable winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected to trend
onshore during the late morning through early evening hours due
to lake breeze development. Waves are forecast to be 2 feet or
less.

The aforementioned high pressure ridge should exit generally
E`ward Monday night through this Wednesday as a low moves
generally NE`ward from eastern CO toward the Upper MS Valley.
This low track will allow a warm front to sweep NE`ward across
Lake Erie Monday night. The warm front passage will cause mainly
E`erly to SE`erly winds around 5 to 10 knots to veer to S`erly
as waves remain 2 feet or less. Primarily S`erly to SW`erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected this Tuesday through
Wednesday with waves of 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ143>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Jaszka