357
FXUS61 KCLE 180520
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
120 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure builds into the region today with quiet weather
expected over the next couple of days.

2) Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure that brought showers and thunderstorms exits into
Northeastern Canada as the accompanying cold front drifts to the
southeast of the region into the Mid-Atlantic. Zonal flow aloft will
take hold across the region today as high pressure begins to builds
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the surface. The high will drift
to the east to be overhead, then exit to the east by Tuesday
evening. There is potential for patchy fog for areas away from the
lakeshore Tuesday morning due to the saturated low levels and ground
from the previous days precipitation and a fairly stable atmosphere
underneath the high. Humidity will decrease through the day Tuesday
and dew points will be in the low 60s providing some relief to the
"sticky" air we`ve had over the past several days. Temperatures will
stay consistent in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region today
and Tuesday with overnight lows a little cooler than they have been
at upper 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper level troughing will move into southern Hudson Bay late
Tuesday evening as a surface low pressure system moves north of the
Great Lakes. In general, this system is trending to be on the weaker
side and given that it will move through the area early Wednesday
morning through the midday, potential for severe weather remains on
the low end. Instability will be low with the southern and eastern
counties of the area being on the higher end of that. With that,
currently only general thunderstorms are expected Wednesday midday
through the early evening. Precipitation chances will decrease
through the evening as the cold front moves northwest to southeast
across the region. There may be some lingering showers across the
Central Ohio as some upper level energy moves through the Ohio
Valley.

There will be a brief break in precipitation Thursday and Friday as
high pressure builds in. Low pressure will enter the Great Lakes
region Saturday morning and bring a cold front through the area
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Currently with that
timing, there may be some severe weather potential Saturday
afternoon and evening as instability will have the chance to
increase with daytime heating. A few AI models are also picking up
on the severe weather potential, highlighting the eastern two-thirds
of the area. Given that this is several days away, there is a lot of
uncertainty in timing and much of the details so a shift one way or
the other could impact the severe potential. Will need to monitor
over the coming days to see how the system progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with scattered to
broken upper-level cirrus. Patchy BR/FG is possible 09z and 13z
away from the lake, and is most likely at KMFD and KYNG. Winds
will be light from the north or northwest 5 to 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
North winds 10-15 knots this evening will become light and
variable overnight tonight as high pressure moves overhead.
Southwest flow develops on Tuesday as a cold front approaches
from the west. Southwest winds will increase to 15-20 knots with
the passing cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will
lead to wave heights building to 2-3 feet in the central and
eastern basins of the lake. Winds shift northerly behind the
cold front Wednesday evening and northeasterly by Thursday as
high pressure approaches from the northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...13