738
FXUS61 KCLE 151756
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1256 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region this morning before a
cold front moves southeast across the local area tonight. A
trough will linger over the Lower Great Lakes through Monday
with low pressure moving east into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.
High pressure will return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front will lift northeast across the region at the start
of the near term period, resulting in increasing temperatures
and widespread cloud cover this morning. Afternoon temperatures
will likely reach the mid to upper 60s across NW OH, low to mid
60s across northeastern and north-central OH, and the upper 50s
across NW PA. Isolated rain showers are possible along the warm
front (generally east of I-71) early this morning with warm
sector rain chances increasing across NE OH/NW PA as a cold
front approaches from the northwest this afternoon. The front is
expected to move southeast across the CWA late this afternoon
into this evening before exiting to the southeast tonight.

There may be just enough forcing/instability for isolated to
scattered thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. A Marginal Risk
for severe weather is still in place across far southeastern
zones for this evening, although the severe weather potential
is very conditional. Extensive cloud cover will be in place
across the local area ahead of the cold front, but a few models
are hinting at some mid-level dry air working into the area just
ahead of the cold front this afternoon which could allow clouds
to clear just enough for a narrow corridor of destabilization.
The wind field supports the potential for some gusty
showers/stronger thunderstorms with effective bulk shear values
likely reaching 35 to 40 knots ahead of the cold front. The
window for stronger convection would be pretty narrow, as
convective showers and thunderstorms could develop near the
southeastern border of the CWA between 21Z and 00Z and quickly
move southeast out of the local area. Regardless, it will be
gusty even outside of precipitation today with peak gusts of 30
to 40 mph anticipated this afternoon through tonight.

Scattered lake enhanced showers may develop just behind the cold
front tonight, however the better push of cold air won`t arrive
until Sunday morning. 850mb temperatures will likely fall to -6
to -8C Sunday, which should provide sufficient lake-induced
instability for lake effect precip across the primary snowbelt
region. The highest PoPs will be focused across NW PA,
especially near the PA/NY border due to west-northwest fetch
over the lake. Temps will be somewhat marginal in this area
during the day Sunday, but ptype will likely be a rain/snow mix
with periods of snow possible at inland locations. Accumulation
will be hard to come by during the day Sunday given the warmer
surface temps, but accumulation will be likely Sunday night (see
short term discussion below).

Tonight`s low temps will be in the 30s and highs will vary a bit
on Sunday. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s are likely across
the snowbelt region with mid to upper 40s expected elsewhere. It
will also be quite windy Sunday with continued gusts to 30 to 40
mph expected areawide. Gusts may briefly approach 45 mph close
to the lakeshore Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Accumulating lake effect snow is likely Sunday night into Monday
as an upper trough remains in place across the local area.
There`s still some uncertainty in the placement of lake effect
bands and the resulting snow accumulations, but as of now it
still looks like the main band of snow will be focused close to
the PA/NY border. The highest snow accumulations of 3 to as much
as 5+ inches are likely across the higher terrain of eastern
Erie/Crawford counties with amounts rapidly tapering off to the
west and along the lakeshore. There`s potential for a marginal
Winter Weather Advisory for Sunday night and Monday morning, so
stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

There`s some potential that lake effect precip could stick
around through Monday night, but dry air will likely be building
into the region from the southwest which should allow PoPs to
taper off. On Tuesday, low pressure will track east across the
Ohio Valley and the precip shield will likely clip the local
area. The northward extent of the precip shield and the
resulting ptype remains a bit uncertain, but there`s potential
for snow or a rain/snow mix Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Highs will generally be in the upper 30s and lower 40s
throughout the short term period with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s anticipated each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will return on Wednesday, resulting in a period of
dry weather. Rain chances could begin to increase from the
southwest as early as Wednesday night as the next system
approaches from the southwest, but PoPs will be highest as the
system moves across the area at some point late Thursday into
Friday. Still a lot to iron out with this system, but as of now
it appears that the precip type will be rain rather than snow.
Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values during the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the TAF sites this
afternoon with mainly MVFR ceilings expected through the rest of
today. Main focus will be ahead of a cold front this evening
where showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop,
primarily east of the I-71 corridor. Included brief, IFR tsra
tempo groups at CAK/YNG/ERI in this update where confidence is
highest in precipitation coverage and thunder probs. Lower
confidence exists further west at CLE/MFD, so went with MVFR
-shra. MVFR ceilings may linger behind the front downwind of
Lake Erie tonight into Monday morning across the eastern half
of the area, while VFR is favored elsewhere.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest this
afternoon, 12 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 22 to 25 knots.
Winds will abruptly shift towards the west, then northwest
behind the cold front late this evening and overnight,
maintaining speeds of 12 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 22
knots. Winds will mix slightly deeper Sunday morning and early
afternoon, with northwest winds increasing to 20 to 22 knots
with periodic gusts in the 30 to 32-knot range. A few isolated
higher peak gusts of 35 knots cannot be ruled out, especially
across the eastern TAF sites.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR from lake effect clouds and
rain/snow may linger across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania into Tuesday. Non-VFR possible areawide in light
rain and/or snow on Tuesday. Non-VFR likely to return late
Thursday in widespread rain.

&&

.MARINE...
After a brief reprieve, another period of active marine conditions
is expected today through Monday as a strong low pressure system
crosses the Great Lakes. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots
behind a warm front late this morning then turn W at 20-30 knots as
the strong cold front sweeps across the lake this evening. Winds
will then veer to NW tonight and further increase to just below Gale
force, and NW winds of 20-30 knots will continue through Sunday
before gradually diminishing to 20-25 knots late Sunday night and 10-
15 knots by late Monday. These winds will build waves to 5 to 8 feet
in the central and eastern basins tonight and 6 to 9 feet Sunday
into Sunday night before gradually subsiding. Small Craft Advisories
go into effect from the Islands to Ripley, NY at 17Z today and from
Reno Beach to the Islands at 00Z this evening. The far western zone
from Reno Beach to the Islands will expire Sunday night, but the
headlines will continue for the rest of the lake through Monday and
into Monday night since winds and waves will take longer to
diminish.

Light and variable winds are expected by Tuesday before becoming ENE
at 5-10 knots by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Sunday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Garuckas