809
FXUS61 KCLE 030744
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds off the east coast as low pressure begins to
deepen over the northern Great Lakes. The low pressure will move
slowly towards the James Bay region dragging a cold front across the
area on Thursday. A secondary cold front will move through on Friday
as high pressure builds in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak upper level troughing will start to push off into eastern
Canada as another, stronger upper level trough deepens north of
the Great Lakes region. This will drag a cold front into the
region starting late Wednesday night with increasing
precipitation chances into Thursday. PWAT values will range from
1.20-1.50" ahead of and with the front. Though, the front will
be fairly quick moving, so total QPF amounts will be limited.
Guidance has trended down over the past few model runs and total
QPF will be around 0.40-0.50". Severe weather is not expected
due to the timing of the front and lack of instability. The
front should exit the region by late Thursday evening and rain
chances will end quickly behind the front.

Temperatures ahead of the front will climb into the low 80s today
with overnight lows falling into the mid 50s. Highs on Thursday will
be muted by the increasing cloud coverage and precipitation and will
only be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will be slow to exit the region and will
slowly drift towards the James Bay region late in the week. There
will be a brief dry period for most of Friday before a secondary
cold front moves into the region later that evening into Saturday.
Precipitation chances with this front are lower with the influx of
drier air, though the surface low itself will be stronger than the
first one. As the cold front passes through the region,
precipitation chances will initial be minimal and then increase
east of the I-71 corridor. The pressure gradient will be strong
and winds gusts around 25mph or higher are possible across the
area on Friday. Winds will subside behind the front early
Saturday morning. Additionally, there will be potential for lake
effect rain showers across far northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday night with the increased
westerly to northwesterly flow across the lake.

Temperatures Friday will rebound slightly across the region with
highs in the mid 70s and fall again behind the cold front to the mid
60s. Overnight lows will drop as well down into the mid to upper
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect rain showers will taper off across northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania early Sunday. High pressure
will build into the region and dry weather is expected through
the long term. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be chilly,
down in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure will finally be exiting the region with a stout
cold front approaching form the west. Prior to the cold front
arrival, winds southwesterly 10-15kts with SCT cumulus
developing FL070. Line of showers and storms with the cold front
expected after 03Z Thursday for the western terminals towards
the end of the TAF period. Using SHRA for now but may need to
add thunder in the next issuance for TOL/FDY. Convection also
creeps into the end of the CLE 30hr TAF after 06Z Thursday.
Ceilings decrease with saturation in rainfall, and will see that
for TOL down to MVFR.

Outlook...A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing the potential for
non-VFR conditions. Additional non-VFR possible in lake-enhanced
showers Friday evening into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds southerly 10kts increase out of the southwest this evening
and tonight to 15-25kts ahead of a strong cold front. Winds
northwesterly 15-20kts behind the cold front Thursday and wave
heights increasing to 4-6ft primarily east of the islands. Winds
quickly back to southwesterly Thursday night 15-25kts and 20-30kts
Friday ahead of another cold front with wave heights that will
increase rapidly away from shore. Winds northwesterly behind the
cold front 15-25kts with wave heights 4-6ft again east of the
islands.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26