736
FXUS61 KCLE 240701
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
201 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will linger through tonight before
another low pressure system arrives from the west and impacts the
area Tuesday. A more potent low pressure system will move a cold
front east late Tuesday into Wednesday with a surface trough
lingering through Friday. High pressure returns for the start of
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area will linger through early tonight which
will allow for another day of dry conditions. High temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 50s with high clouds beginning to
build northeast this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching
system. This next low pressure system will move east from the
Central Plains and across the Ohio River Valley late Monday night
through Tuesday. This weak low pressure will be accompanied by a
shortwave upper level trough which will act to provide enough
support for widespread rain showers to push across the area. Total
rainfall across the area will generally be between 0.25-0.5" of
precipitation, with the exception of northwest Ohio which will
likely see less precipitation given the track of the low. All
precipitation through Tuesday will remain as liquid as a persistent
southerly flow will maintain a WAA regime. Highs on Tuesday will
once again climb into the low to mid 50s. Overnight lows on Monday
night will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The middle of the week will be impacted by a robust low pressure
system associated with a deepening upper level trough across the
Great Lakes region. As this system moves east, a strong cold front
will move across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Ahead
and along this boundary, rain showers are expected to continue with
enhanced frontogenetic forcing complimenting strong upper level
support. These showers will gradually diminish from west to east
throughout the day on Wednesday. In addition to the showers
expected, this cold front will also mark the transition back to
winter as a much colder Canadian airmass moves around the backside
of the low. The arrival of this colder air will likely transition
rain to a rain/snow mix late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
This period of transition will be worth watching as temperatures are
expected to cool pretty rapidly which may cause icy spots on
roadways.

By late Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, the cold
front will have departed to the east, leaving much of the region
under the influence of a surface trough. With 850mb temperatures
quickly dropping into the -8 to -10C range, this will mark the
beginning of an increasing threat of lake effect snow. Initially
Wednesday night, a sustained southwest flow across Lake Erie should
isolate the heaviest band north over Lake Erie and have minimal
impacts to the snowbelt minus possibly along the immediate
lakeshore. By Thursday morning however, the upper level trough axis
shifts east of the area and overall flow across the lake gains a
more WNW wind component. This is expected to result in lake effect
snow gradually shifting inland across the primary snowbelt. As this
happens, ample moisture combined with deepening EQL and moderate
lake induced instability should result in areas of heavy lake effect
snow through Thursday night. Overall structure of the lake effect
should be multi-bands with embedded heavier bands. Confidence
continues to increase that there will be accumulating snow across
portions of the snowbelt through Thanksgiving, but exact snowfall
totals, locations, and timing remain uncertain. Given the increased
travel surrounding the holiday, please keep up to date with the
latest forecast and plan accordingly.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 40s out west and mid 50s out
east and will likely occur early in the day. Highs on Thursday will
be much colder, only climbing into the low to mid 30s. Overnight
lows Tuesday night will drop into the 40s before quickly cooling
into the low 20s by Thursday night. Wind chill values Wednesday and
Thursday nights will be in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned surface trough will linger over the area for much
Friday, allowing for continued lake effect snow potential across the
snowbelt region. On Friday, overall mesoscale support gradually
diminish throughout the day as a high pressure system begins to
nudge east, but there remains a chance for some heavier bands of
snow. By Friday night, drier air should cut off lake effect
potential with a brief high pressure impacting the region. This
should allow for a break in precipitation sometime on Saturday
before effect from another developing low begin to push northeast.
On Sunday, models are fairly consistent in developing a Colorado Low
which is supported by a deepening upper level trough and bringing
this northeast towards the area. There remains quite a bit of
divergence amongst model guidance with timing and location of this
low, so for now ended the weekend with chance PoPs with a rain/snow
mix possible. Highs through the period will generally be in the 30s,
possibly warming into the 40s near the end of the period. Overnight
lows should remain in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue tonight as high pressure builds
over Ohio. There is a small window towards sunrise where a few
locations in the east could see patchy radiational fog with MVFR
fog and included a short tempo at YNG. On Monday we will see
increasing high cloud, starting to lower Monday night. Light
rain will approach towards the TAF period, but will generally
arrive in the 06-12Z window on Tuesday. Otherwise, light
westerly winds will decrease and become variable overnight.
Winds will develop out of the south on Monday morning and be in
the 5-10 knot range for the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR chances return Monday night through
Wednesday in rain showers. Non VFR continues with chances for
snow in the snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will slowly diminish on the lake this evening, so the
Small Craft Advisories should be good to expire at Midnight.
This will leave light and variable winds in place tonight,
becoming S at 5-15 knots Monday through Tuesday as high pressure
slides off the Mid Atlantic coast ahead of deepening low
pressure lifting into the Upper Midwest. Winds will become WSW
and increase to 20-35 knots by Wednesday through Thursday as the
low continues to deepen and progresses from the northern Great
Lakes through Quebec, so the threat of Gales is increasing
Wednesday into Thursday along with at least 9 to 13 foot waves
in the central and eastern basins. W winds will gradually
diminish to 15-25 knots Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Garuckas