438
FXUS61 KCLE 061919
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry with slowly warming temperatures through Tuesday.

2) A brief period of heat and humidity will arrive on Wednesday
with showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

3) Cooler end to the week, but heat and humidity build again
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An Omega Block will continue across the Lower 48 through the
rest of the holiday weekend, characterized by mid/upper troughs
over the Pacific Northwest and eastern Great Lakes/New England
and a broad mid/upper ridge in between over the Plains. This
will keep the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley under
favorable upper level confluence to maintain a large surface
high of Canadian origin overhead. As a result, the very pleasant
temperatures and low humidity found across the area this
afternoon will continue through Labor Day Monday. Expect another
cool night tonight, with lows in the low/mid 50s inland from the
lake and upper 50s to near 60 along the lakeshore. A slightly
warmer day is expected Monday, but still comfortable with highs
in the mid 70s to around 80.

The large Canadian high will drift east into the Mid Atlantic
region Monday night and Tuesday as the central CONUS mid/upper
ridge expands east into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in
response to shortwave energy ejecting into the northern Plains.
This will set up return southerly flow and resultant warm air
advection, so temperatures and dew points will be noticeably
higher Tuesday. Look for highs to get back into the low/mid 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The mid/upper ridge will become firmly established across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys (briefly) Tuesday night and Wednesday
as the aforementioned shortwave progresses into the Great Lakes.
Strong warm air advection ahead of the accompanying cold front
and 850 mb temps warming to 17-18 C beneath the thermal ridge
will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90 Wednesday, and
dew points in the low 70s will yield heat indices in the
low/mid 90s. The ridge will already be flattening Wednesday
evening as the shortwave digs into the central Great Lakes. This
will push the cold front through the region late Wednesday
evening or Wednesday night. There will likely be a narrow ribbon
of moderate to strong instability given the heat and humidity,
and this coupled with the right entrance region of a 120-130
knot upper jet streak crossing Lower Michigan should support
organized convection. Will need to monitor for strong to severe
storms Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, but the main
uncertainty continues to be convective coverage. A second
mid/upper shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Thursday will
likely stall the cold frontal boundary over northern or central
Ohio in response to a surface wave tracking along it, and this
will keep decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the
area Thursday before drying out Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Canadian high pressure will finally build into the southern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday night and Friday and push
the boundary south of the area, supporting cooler and less humid
conditions. However, renewed mid/upper troughing pushing into
the western CONUS next weekend will build and expand the
stubborn central CONUS mid/upper ridge back into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. This will cause heat and humidity to build back
into the area next weekend, with highs in the 70s Friday warming
into at least the mid 80s for the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Some low VFR clouds have developed across the region with
incoming high pressure into the region and cooler air over warm
Lake Erie. There may be some intermittent ceilings around 3-5
kft but clouds should remain few/sct through the evening. Clouds
will clear with the diurnal cycle ending. Clouds will return on
Monday morning with cold air advection over the lake. Winds will
largely be northeasterly through the period. A land breeze may
develop tonight and allow for southeast flow at KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and storms on Wednesday
and lingering into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the southern Great Lakes will keep a decent
northeasterly gradient over the lake through Labor Day Monday,
so kept NE winds in the 15-20 knot range the rest of this
afternoon and again Monday afternoon. This will build wave
heights to 2 to 3 feet in the central basin with a moderate
risk of rip currents at times. Winds will become light E to SE
Monday night and Tuesday then SW at 15-25 knots late Tuesday
night and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed Wednesday. Winds will turn W to NW and
decrease to 15-20 knots behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday, going light by Friday as high pressure returns.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Garuckas