352
FXUS61 KCLE 142303
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Wednesday, but this time
it encompasses more of north central and NE Ohio.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The hottest day of this stretch will be Wednesday, with peak
heat indices in the 95 to 105 degree range leading to Major HeatRisk
(level 3 of 4) areawide.

2) Gradual cooling Thursday through the weekend with periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms. The greatest potential will
be Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A large bubble of hot and humid air is becoming established across
the region this afternoon as an elongated and anomalous H5 ridge
averaging 600 DAM temporarily builds into the Great Lakes. Afternoon
satellite and water vapor loops show this ridge currently centered
over southern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the center
will slide SE into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by late Wednesday.
The position and movement of this H5 ridge center will make for a
different type of heat compared to the late June/early July event.

First, the westerly mid/upper flow on the northern periphery of the
ridge will direct the warmest temperatures (averaging 26 C at 850
mb) across the northern and central Great Lakes tonight and
Wednesday. Some of this will drop SE across our region Wednesday as
the ridge center moves southeastward, but generally expect the
hottest air temperatures to occur in Lower Michigan. Second, the
airmass circulating NW to SE across the region will lead to lower
max dew points compared to the previous heat event, with dew points
expected to peak in the upper 60s/low 70s Wednesday. This should cap
max heat indices in the 95 to 105 F range (warmest in NW Ohio). With
all of this being said, Wednesday will be the hottest day of this
stretch with major HeatRisk impacts (level 3 of 4) expected for
vulnerable populations, but we are not looking at extreme impacts
this time since the worst conditions will be north of the area.
Issued a Heat Advisory for Wednesday for all counties in the CWA
except for Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Erie, and Crawford since an
onshore component to the low-level flow should help to keep temps
and heat indices lower there.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The mid/upper ridge will start to become suppressed farther SW into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday night and Thursday in
response to a mid/upper trough deepening over eastern Canada. This
trough will continue to slowly deepen through the Great Lakes and
suppress/retrograde the ridge Friday through the weekend. As this
process occurs, gradually cooler and less humid conditions will
drop into the area. An initial frontal boundary sagging through
the southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night
and Thursday will advect notably lower dew points across the
region for Thursday and Friday as low-level flow turns northerly
and surface high pressure builds down into the eastern Great
Lakes. Although air temperatures will still be very warm
Thursday and Friday (mid 80s to low 90s), the lower dew points
will keep heat indices lower. The real cooling when air
temperatures will drop will occur by Sunday into early next week
as the mid/upper trough further deepens.

The other aspect that this changing weather pattern will bring is
the potential for convection. The initial sagging front
Wednesday night will interact with moderate to strong
instability beneath a stout EML. The latest HREF and RRFS
continue to show uncertainty, but there is an increasing signal
for some widely scattered convection Wednesday night if the cap
can break, so added chance POPS. The better potential for
convection will occur Friday over the SW portions of the CWA and
Saturday over more of the area as the frontal boundary slowly
lifts back northeastward in response to a couple of shortwaves
dropping through the developing NW flow aloft. We are not
currently outlooked for severe weather, but would not be
surprised to see it in future outlooks since the combination of
at least moderate instability and increasing upper jet
support/shear could support organized convection, especially
Saturday. The biggest uncertainty lies with convective evolution
and timing, as the pattern supports upstream MCS activity
potentially dropping SE through the region at times in addition
to local development. Conditions will gradually trend drier
Sunday through early next week as the trough deepens and pushes
the frontal boundary south allowing Canadian high pressure to
build in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this evening with mainly VFR to persist
through the TAF period. Main concern going forward will be the
potential for lower vsbys starting Wednesday night as upper-
level wildfire smoke may begin to filter down near the surface.
Have introduced 5sm hz for CLE towards the end of the TAF period
late Wednesday evening. Additional hz mentions may need to be
added at other TAF sites if trends persist.

Winds are generally out of the west to southwest this evening, 5
to 8 knots. Winds will subside to 5 knots or less overnight,
before increasing and shifting to the west to northwest
Wednesday afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. A few brief gusts up to 20
knots are possible at CLE/ERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR visibility possible Wednesday night and
Thursday due to wildfire smoke. Non-VFR likely Friday night
through Saturday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwest flow will continue over Lake Erie this
afternoon and evening with high pressure advancing eastward and
increasing the pressure gradient over the lake. The highest
waves will continue out of the nearshore zones with a flavor of
2 to 3 ft closer to the NW PA/NE OH shoreline. As high pressure
advances east for Wednesday, southwest flow will continue and
diminish. A cold front will move east for Wednesday night into
Thursday and stall out across the lake. This will flip flow to
the north/northeast on Thursday. This boundary will remain
across the lake on Friday, maintaining weak east flow. Several
low pressure systems will move through the region over the
weekend, strengthening southwest flow at times and bringing
intermittent storm chances.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011-
     017>019.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ003-
     006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Sefcovic