063
FXUS61 KCLE 291145
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
745 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from previous forecast cycle.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming temperatures this weekend into next week could bring
heat indices greater than 95F to portions of the area, with
heat headlines possible.

2) Active weather pattern focused along the periphery of the
upper ridge could bring some strong storms and heavy rainfall to
the region next week, although confidence remains low on
specific impacts to the local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Models continue to show mid/upper level ridging building into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. High
temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s is possible
Monday through Wednesday, with heat indices in the mid 90s
possible. NBM probabilities for heat indices greater than 95F
peak on Wednesday, with elevated probs Tuesday and Thursday as
well. Heat headlines are not out of the question at this point,
especially in the western/southwestern portions of the area, but
probs of heat indices greater than 100F remain low at this
time. Heat impacts could be elevated with even 95F heat indices
given the time of year. Realizing these temperatures will be
contingent on shower/thunderstorm activity and resultant cloud
cover, however at this time convection is expected to be
primarily focused north of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Despite model solution convergence on building ridge into the
Great Lakes region next week, confidence remains low on
potential for organized convection that could periodically
impact the area. A warm front will lift north into the area
Sunday, with organized convection possible upstream across the
central Great Lakes sliding southeast along this front. Models
are a bit further north with this activity than 24 hours ago,
which would keep most of this activity north of the forecast
area. The overall pattern looks to become more northwest flow
through midweek vs. the more zonal mid/upper level pattern
reflected by last night`s model runs. Despite this, the best
mid/upper flow should remain north of the area during this time,
although organized convective complexes may favor a track
towards the area if sufficient destabilization manifests. The
best precip chances will be Thursday as a cold front pushes
south into the area as a potent mid/upper trough/low digs
southeast towards the lower Great Lakes/New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period. Scattered to broken high
clouds are expected with some diurnal scattered clouds around
5kft possible this afternoon. Winds will be light around 5-10
knots out of the south through the TAF period with a lake
breeze likely at KCLE and KERI this afternoon through 01-02Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday with showers
and thunderstorms and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected through the weekend with high
pressure building overhead and drifting eastward through Sunday
evening. A warm front will move north across Lake Erie on Monday
that will bring potential for showers and thunderstorms. Through
Wednesday night, winds will be out of the south to southwest
generally between 5-15 knots with waves 2 feet or less. Low pressure
will enter the region on Wednesday with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23