367
FXUS61 KCLE 140718
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
318 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front remains across the region through today before
pushing south into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Surface high
pressure briefly builds overhead from the north before the
aforementioned front lifts back north as a warm front Monday
night into Tuesday. The front will once again stall across the
region through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stalled front draped across the area will continue to impact
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions through the near term.
The primary concern with the stalled boundary continues to be
heavy rainfall and localized flooding as PWATs are expected to
range between 1.7 and 1.9 inches, well above the 90th percentile
for mid- June, combined with weak cloud layer flow. HREF
neighborhood probabilities hint at a swath of higher QPF mainly
along and north of US-30 given the placement of the stalled
front. Peak hourly rates will likely occur this morning through
early afternoon with HREF 1hr maximum QPF amounts ranging
between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. Very isolated chance of diurnally
driven thunderstorms developing this afternoon and early evening
across southeastern zones. Not expecting any severe
thunderstorms given the lack of instability but some sub-severe
wet thunderstorm downbursts are possible in any stronger storm
that develops. Cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the
lower 70s today. Lows will settle in the low 60s tonight.

The front will begin to push south out of the region this
evening which will allow for showers to exit from northwest to
southeast through tonight. A brief surface high builds over the
region from the north on Sunday bringing dry weather for end
the near term period. Highs will be slightly warmer on Sunday as
they rise into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A quasi-zonal mid level flow will continue into early next week. A
stubborn stationary frontal boundary will continue to be around to
start off the new week. On Monday, the stalled front will be near
the central Ohio area and bring a chance for scattered showers and
storms mainly in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday will range
from the upper 70s over northwest Pennsylvania to the lower 80s over
northwest Ohio. The frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm
front by Tuesday. With a moisture rich atmosphere on lingering
around Tuesday, POPs will increase for scattered showers and
thunderstorm during the afternoon. Tuesday`s afternoon high
temperatures will be a little warmer in the lower to middle 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will be warm as well in the lower to
upper 60s for early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The middle of the week looks to remain somewhat unsettled with very
warm weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms. The area
will be south of a warm front that will be draped across southern
Ontario by the middle of next week. A shortwave trough will move
across the Northern Plains region into the Upper Midwest on
Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will again be around
Wednesday with high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s. The
shortwave trough will track across the Great Lakes region on
Thursday dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Thursday will
be the day with the highest POPs for showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be held down in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Thursday. Towards the end of next week, the weather pattern will
shift to a northwest flow in between an upper level trough to the
east and an upper level ridge to the west. A drier and seasonable
warm weather pattern is expected by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mixed bag of conditions overnight tonight as mist and rain
showers persist across the region. Areas of VFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected to reduce to IFR through tonight as
rain showers continue during the morning and afternoon while a
front remains draped across the region. As the front sags south
through the evening rain showers will diminish from northwest
to southeast. Fairly high confidence in low clouds through the
TAF period (IFR to MVFR), though guidance is hinting at ceilings
beginning to lift to high- end MVFR to low- end VFR by late
in the TAF period. There is a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms, mainly along a line from KMFD to KCAK to KYNG
and points south, depending on how many breaks in cloud cover
there are during the afternoon. Have continued VCTS mention from
~18Z to ~22Z for those TAF sites with this forecast update. Low
confidence in any strong to severe thunderstorms occurring in
the afternoon and evening as instability seems fairly minimal.

Generally northerly to northeasterly winds 5-10 knots will
continue through the TAF period with light and variable flow
anticipated across inland locations.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and thunderstorms
this weekend through Wednesday, especially Sunday afternoon and
again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary south of the lake
across central Ohio. Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots will be around
today into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard
Statement for rip currents also remain in effect today. Waves will
be 2 to 4 feet due to the persistent northeasterly flow.  Northeast
winds will continue through Sunday 5 to 15 knots. By Monday, the
northeast winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as the frontal boundary
shifts closer to southern Ohio. Winds will become south-southwest  5-
10 knots on Tuesday when a warm front pushes northward across the
lake. Southerly southwesterly winds will continue Wednesday and
Thursday 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ143>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...77