533
FXUS61 KCLE 230749
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
249 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will pass to the northeast today as high
pressure will enter from the southwest. This surface high will
remain over the area through Monday evening. A strong low
pressure system will target the Great Lakes region starting
Monday night with impacts expected through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The bulk of the near term forecast concerns are going to be
through this afternoon, as the forecast area lies between a
low pressure system passing to the northeast and a high pressure
system building in from the southwest. During the early morning
hours, the surface warm front of the low pressure system is
moving through far NE OH and NW PA and bringing some light mixed
precipitation that should have minimal impacts to the region.
There will be another short window for a mix of rain or snow
during the late morning and early afternoon hours in NE OH and
NW PA with the upper trough axis moving through the region. The
bulk of the precipitation should be east of the forecast area
but there is enough potential to merit a 20-30 PoP through this
afternoon. Outside of that, the low pressure system and upper
trough will pass to the east and high pressure will enter for
the rest of the period allowing for dry weather through Monday
evening. High temperatures through the period will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s and lows will be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will be largely driven on the
synoptic level with a large low pressure system that will target
the Great Lakes region. There is increasing consensus on the
setup being a pair of upper level troughs that will develop this
low pressure system and bring impacts to the region. For Monday
night, the southern stream shortwave will cultivate the low
pressure system over the southern CONUS and this wave will bring
the low northeast on Tuesday. This will bring the first round
of rain to the region, which continues to be characterized by
categorical PoPs, with around 0.25-0.75" of rainfall by Tuesday
evening. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 50s across
the area.

For Tuesday night, expecting a generally drier period overall as
the area will be away from most of the main sources of lift.
The initial shortwave pushes to the east. Meanwhile, the surface
low pulls to the northwest toward the northern Great Lakes as
the northern stream upper trough digs into the Upper Midwest.
Will keep some lower PoPs as there could be some isolated or
scattered showers about but suspect that Tuesday night will be
uneventful. Lows on Tuesday will be in the 40s.

Wednesday will be the main pattern change day as the cold front
will move through the region, bringing a dramatic temperature
drop with rain that will change over to snow. There is building
consensus that the cold front will move through the area during
the daylight hours on Wednesday and have the most widespread and
highest PoPs during the Wednesday period. The temperatures will
be quick to drop below freezing by Wednesday evening and expect
a sharp change to snow for Wednesday night. There will be some
lake enhancement into the NE OH/NW PA snow belt on Wednesday
night with the quickly plummeting temperatures aloft behind the
upper trough and have likely PoPs. Will need to watch initial
snow accumulations, as the transition from rain to snow could be
abrupt. Will also need to watch winds with and behind the
frontal passage and there could be some blustery conditions to
contend with. In the end, the forecast is trending to be the not
the most ideal weather for the day before Thanksgiving and
travel purposes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Thursday and Friday forecast will be very dominated by the
mesoscale processes of lake effect snow. Bottom line up front -
There is increasing confidence in accumulating snowfall in NE
OH and NW PA for the Thanksgiving holiday and the day after.
However, there remains uncertainty on total snowfall
accumulations, rates, and impacts for the local forecast area
and increased travel in the region.

Over the last two forecast cycles, the strength of the upper
trough over the region and the magnitude of the cold air (now
down to -12C at 850 mb) has increased just a touch to allow for
the overall synoptic setup to be more favorable for snow over
the region. However, the key will be the final placement and
timing of the upper low north of the area, as that will dictate
the mean flow over Lake Erie and whether or not snow will favor
OH/PA vs. NY and if snow will be transient across the lee of
Lake Erie or try to set up over a persistent location. Overall,
will continue to nudge PoPs higher into the 70-80% range for the
period. Temperatures will be cold with 30s for highs and 20s
for lows.

The upper ridge will build in for Saturday and allow for lake
effect snow to exit the region and there will be a brief
reprieve in snow chances. Temperatures may increase slightly
into the upper 30s or even low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A few light showers will be in the vicinity of ERI at the start
of the period as a warm front continues to move east. Precipitation
has been spotty at the surface but a brief rain/snow mix is
possible. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected overnight with a
mid-level cloud deck that will clear from west to east. A
mostly dry cold front will sweep east across the area between
09-14Z. Western terminals are expected to remain VFR but a brief
period of MVFR is possible for terminals east of a line from
CLE-CAK between 12-14Z. ERI is most likely to see a MVFR cloud
deck after 13Z, lifting to VFR but persisting into the
afternoon. Can not rule out a brief shower but potential looks
limited.

Southwest winds will increase overnight into the 6-10 knot
range, than shift to the west with the passage of the cold
front. Most terminals, especially eastern ones will see wind
gusts to 20-25 knots with the passage of the cold front on
Sunday morning. Breezy conditions will continue in the east
through late afternoon with winds dropping off to 10 knots or
less towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...VFR is favored through Monday before non-VFR chances
return Monday night through Wednesday. Non VFR continues with
chances for snow in the snowbelt on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, a low pressure system over southern Ontario will move a cold
front east across Lake Erie with winds increasing to 20-25 knots
from the northwest by mid-morning. This onshore flow will build
waves to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern basin through late
this evening. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through midnight tonight. Behind the departing front late tonight,
high pressure will build over the region and result in varying winds
of 5-15 knots through Monday. The active pattern will continue on
Tuesday as a weak warm front will move north across Lake Erie and
increase south-southeast winds to 10-15 knots before a strong cold
front moves east on Wednesday. Along and behind this cold front,
west-southwest winds will ramp up to 25-30 knots, possibly
approaching gale force by Wednesday night. Confidence in reaching
gales is low so continue to cap max winds on the lake at 33 knots,
but this could increase. These strong winds will persist through
Thursday before northwest winds of 20-25 knots are expected as a
surface trough linger through Friday. This entire period from
Wednesday through Friday will need a marine headline of some kind as
hazardous conditions are expected. Conditions calm across the lake
on Saturday as another high pressure builds east.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST
     this afternoon for LEZ144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to midnight
     EST tonight for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...10
MARINE...04