843
FXUS61 KCLE 011750
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds off towards New England through
early next week. An upper level trough and associated cold front
will move into the region on Wednesday and exit to the east by
Thursday. A secondary cold front will through on Friday as the
upper level trough lingers in the region through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather is expected to continue through the middle of the
week as high pressure slowly builds off to the east. There will be a
warming trend over the next couple of days has the upper level ridge
pushes east. Highs will warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s for
western Ohio. Given the high pressure with clear skies and dry
airmass, overnight lows will drop on the colder side of guidance for
this morning. Temperatures won`t be as cold as the past few nights,
but will still drop down into the upper 40s with some low lying
areas seeing low 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will begin to deepen into the upper Midwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry weather will come to an
end by Wednesday night as the corresponding surface cold front
enters the region from the west. There will be some scattered
showers through the evening before PoP chances increase with the
front. Even with decent jet support, there is fairly weak
instability with the lack of increased moisture and heating, so
severe weather threat is on the low side. There will likely be some
embedded thunder within the showers and along the front with what
weak instability and forcing there is. The cold front should exit
out of the region by Thursday evening and precipitation chances will
fall for the majority of the area as drier air moves in.
Temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s
with overnight lows in the mid 50s. With the cold front on Thursday,
temperatures will be muted given the precipitation and will only
reach up into the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level trough will be slowly drift towards the James Bay
region into the weekend. An additional cold front will through the
region Friday night into Saturday, though PoP chances are currently
low with this feature. There will be northwesterly flow behind the
front and along the western portion of the trough that will allow
for lake effect showers to form across northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday into Sunday. Upper level ridging
will be building in from the west on Sunday bringing in drier, but
cooler weather. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s with
overnight lows down in the mid to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will provide VFR conditions through the TAF
period, although a brief period of MVFR in mist/fog is possible
at KTOL late tonight and/or early Tuesday morning. Winds will
generally be out of the east at 5 to 10 knots through this
afternoon with northeast winds anticipated with the lake breeze
at KCLE/KERI this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be
light and variable tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Showers
and storms bring potential non-VFR Wednesday night and Thursday
with a strong cold front coming through the region. Additional
non-VFR possible in lake-enhanced showers Friday evening into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots are expected this afternoon into
this evening with waves of around 2 feet anticipated from the
Islands to Willowick OH. Winds will shift to the southeast and
diminish to 5 to 10 knots overnight and expect variable winds
under 10 knots on Tuesday. Another lake breeze will likely
produce a period of onshore flow Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday with
winds becoming south/southwesterly and increasing to 10 to 15
knots Tuesday night before increasing further to 15 to 25 knots
Wednesday night. Winds may approach 30 knots in the central
basin late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Wind
direction will shift to the northwest behind the cold front
Thursday afternoon and winds should gradually diminish during
the afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisories will most
likely be needed Wednesday night through at least late Thursday
afternoon. West/southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will persist
Thursday night, however winds/waves will likely increase as a
second cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves
across the lake on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15