666
FXUS61 KCLE 231954
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
354 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal low temperatures and mostly dry conditions will
continue through Saturday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday through
Tuesday. Confidence is increasing for a few stronger storms,
mainly on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cool high pressure system will persist across the region
through Saturday, allowing for dry weather for the next 36-48
hours. Temperatures will continue to moderate upward through the
period with highs near normal in the 80s. Low temperatures will
remain cooler with 50s tonight and some isolated 40s in
sheltered areas of NW PA and NE OH. Record low temperatures are
possible tonight, especially if temperatures can creep into the
40s. Lows will slowly increase each night through the weekend.

Some isentropic lift and added moisture into the region on
Saturday may allow for some isolated showers and storms to pop
up in far NE OH and NW PA and have some new low PoPs to account
for that. Overall, most of the area should be dry on Saturday,
allowing for a dry narrative to prevail for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper trough over the Hudson Bay of Canada will drop south a
bit and allow for northwest flow aloft to setup across the area.
Meanwhile, mid-to-upper 60s dew points will return to the region
in this northwest flow regime. This should allow for convective
activity to pick up across the Great Lakes region on Sunday
through Tuesday. Current guidance suggests that storms will be
more organized to the west on Sunday and eventually make it into
the area late. Whereas, the remnant boundaries of convection
will be over the region on Monday and Tuesday to allow for more
coverage of storms in the region. With a moist and conditionally
unstable air mass on the northeast side of a ridge, there will
be concerns for strong to severe storms, and the area remains
outlooked in a Day 5 SPC Severe Risk area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through TAF period. A
scattered to broken deck of clouds at 4-6kft have developed across
the region and should dissipate by 00Z this evening. Winds are
currently light and predominately out of the north at less than 5
knots. A lake breeze is expected to impact KCLE and KERI this
afternoon, though winds will only increase to 5-10 knots. Overnight
winds will become light and variable until tomorrow morning where
they will be predominately out of the east at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected through much of the weekend as
high pressure builds in. Winds will be light at less than 10 knots
out of the east to northeast through Friday night with the highest
waves being a foot or less. Saturday through Sunday night, winds
will shift to be out of the south to southwest at 5-10 knots and
waves building to 2 feet or less, generally in the open waters.
Winds will increase Monday out of the southwest to 10-15 knots as a
cold front approaches and thunderstorm chances increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23