483
FXUS61 KCLE 141720
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
120 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues southeast across the area today before
lingering as a stationary front to our south. Weak high
pressure briefly builds in this evening and Tuesday. The front
lifts back north across the area on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, followed by a cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite indicates the upper-level trough axis is just
crossing into south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and
southern Illinois. The cold front is well ahead the upper-
level, currently east of of LPR-KMD, with an area of post-
frontal light rain west of the cold front. This light rain will
move eastward across the area through this morning. There is
unlikely to be any lightning before noon today, but retained
shower and thunderstorm wording due to some lingering elevated
instability.

Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon with the trough axis, generally east of I-77 and south
of I-90. The aforementioned cold clears the area but doesn`t get
too far as it remains just to our south as weak high pressure
builds in from the north. Patch to areas of fog will be possible
tonight, in a similar area (east of I-77, south of I-90). Some
models, such as the GLAMP, RAP, and NAM, produce a sizable area
of dense fog (with 1/4SM visibility), so will have to keep an
eye on this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at the broader picture, a weak upper-level ridge sets
up over the southeast CONUS, with broad, weak west to southwest
flow around the northern and western periphery of the ridge. In
response, the stationary front lingering to our south with lift
northward across our forecast area Tuesday night. Should see warm,
moist air build back into the region Wednesday onward through
the rest of the weak, resulting in high temperatures in the
upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Heat indices in the
90s are likely each day, largely due to the very humid airmass.

Most models have a shortwave trough moving northeast from the
mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday to right over our region
Wednesday afternoon. This could provide a regional area of
lift/forcing and limited but sufficient shear for organized
convection, though uncertainty remains in favorability for
severe weather. PoPs continue to be in the 60-70% range for
Wednesday afternoon.

Conditions will be most favorable for thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon as broad upper-level support approaches. Moderate
instability will be present with ~25 knots of deep layer shear
possible scraping our northern forecast area. CSU ML has broad
support for low end severe weather potential (5%; the equivalent
of an SPC marginal) Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Friday, the upper-level trough/cold front is likely just
entering the forecast area, with thunderstorms chances still in
the forecast as the cold front crosses the area. High pressure
builds in on Saturday and Sunday with much lower precipitation
chances and slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend
(we`re talking mid-80s which is still near normal for most).
PoPs in the 20-40% remain in the forecast Saturday/Sunday
despite expected high pressure. This is because high pressure is
expected to be weak, and while cooler, temps/dew points will be
sufficient for modest instability and diurnally driven isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon, though
isolated pockets of non-VFR vsbys from rain showers will remain
possible this afternoon at MFD/CAK/YNG along and ahead of a
weak cold front. Low confidence in direct TAF impacts precludes
non-VFR mention at this time. Otherwise, main concern will turn
towards fog potential overnight into Tuesday morning, primarily
impacting YNG where dense fog is most likely, though could see
MVFR or IFR vsbys at MFD/CAK as well.

Winds are generally south to southwest ahead of a weak cold
front this afternoon, around 5 knots, with winds shifting
towards the west to northwest behind the front, 5 to 10 knots.
Winds will become light and variable overnight and favor a
light southwest direction on Tuesday, around 5 knots. Another
lake breeze will develop late Tuesday morning and early
afternoon, impacting CLE/ERI with northwest winds of 5 to 10
knots.

Outlook...Mainly VFR favored through Tuesday. Higher chances
for non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday in showers and
thunderstorms. Non-VFR chances may persist on Friday afternoon
and evening in showers and thunderstorms, particularly across
the southern portion of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on Lake Erie will be fairly quiet throughout this
week with winds light and variable under 10 knots. Winds will
shift to be predominately out of the south behind a warm front
on Wednesday, but will still be light around 10 knots. Waves up
until this point will be less than 2 feet. Next chance for
increased winds will be Thursday behind a passing cold front and
winds will pick up to 10-15 knots out of the southwest. Waves
will pick up as well, mostly over the open waters, and could see
waves from 2 to 3 feet at times. There will be higher chances
for thunderstorms during this time, so winds and waves could be
higher in those instances.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...23