203
FXUS61 KCLE 290503
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1203 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The trough will exit today as a brief ridge of high pressure builds
across the region. Another potent low pressure system will glide
northeast across the Great Lakes region this weekend with high
pressure briefly returning on Monday. Another system will track east
across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Active weather remains in the near term period with continued lake
effect snow showers through tonight and another impactful system
arriving on Saturday.

Lake Effect Snow:

Lake effect snow showers streaming off of both Lake Michigan and
Lake Erie this afternoon will gradually diminish through this
evening and overnight as the upper trough continues to lift
northeastward as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead from the
south. Given the diminishing lake effect snow, particularly along
the lakeshore, have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather
Advisories for Lake County and Lakeshore Ashtabula County in Ohio
and for Northern Erie County Pennsylvania. The remainder of the Lake
Effect Snow Warnings for Northeast Ohio and the Winter Weather
Advisory for Summit County expire at 7 PM tonight. The Lake Effect
Snow Warning for southern Erie County and Crawford County in
Pennsylvania expire at 1 AM Saturday. Additional snowfall amounts
through tonight of 1 to 3 inches is expected with highest
accumulations occurring across higher terrain locations. Continued
light to moderate snowfall may produce slick conditions through this
evening. Will continue to monitor radar trends over the next several
hours, but additional cancellations are possible.

Synoptic Snow on Saturday:

Our next impactful winter system will arrive on Saturday as low
pressure glides northeast from the Central Plains into the Lower
Great Lakes region while deepening. Wet synoptic snowfall is
expected to spread across the region late Saturday morning through
Sunday. Highest accumulation will be confined to the I-75 corridor
where snowfall amounts of 3-5+ inches are expected. Locally higher
accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible around the Toledo
metro area. Confidence has increased enough with this forecast
package to issue new winter headlines across Northwest Ohio Saturday
morning through Sunday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, Seneca, Hancock, and Wyandot
Counties in Ohio. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Lucas
County for the same timeframe given higher confidence in the western
half of the county receiving 6+ inches of snowfall. Highest snowfall
rates will occur Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across
the advisory and warning area. Elsewhere, accumulations will
generally range between 1-3 inches. Some slick spots may develop
where snow can accumulate on area roadways.

Temperatures:

Lows tonight fall into the upper teens to lower 20s with highs on
Saturday expected to rise into the low/mid 30s. Slightly warmer on
Saturday night with overnight lows in the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic snowfall will diminish from west to east on Sunday as the
aforementioned low pressure system drags a cold front east across
the local area as it pushes northeastward. Breezy behind the cold
front on Sunday with winds gusting to 30-35 mph at times Sunday
afternoon. Additionally, synoptic snowfall will transition to lake
enhanced snow behind the cold front through Monday before another
brief area of high pressure builds overhead. Lake enhanced snowfall
amounts Sunday through Monday morning should generally remain
between 1-2 inches or less. High temperatures on Sunday in the mid
30s to lower 40s will fall into the upper 20s behind the front by
Monday. Chilly Sunday night with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s
and wind chill values bottoming out in the tens early Monday
morning. There will be a brief window of dry weather expected with
high pressure on Monday before another system arrives Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another upper level trough will move east across the region Monday
night into Tuesday bringing yet another round of wintry
precipitation on Tuesday. Dry conditions are favored on Wednesday
under high pressure before additional upper level disturbances move
overhead Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are expected
through the forecast period with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s
and overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the first part of
the TAF period as any lake effect snow shower has taper off and the
area becomes dry. High pressure will build in south of the region
briefly tonight through early in the day Saturday allowing for some
ceilings to scatter out for the southwestern and southern terminals.
Winds will trend lighter overnight for terminals away from the
lakeshore dropping to around 5 knots or less. For KERI, they will
stay elevated longer, around 10 knots and gusting up to 20 knots
through 8-10Z tomorrow morning.

The next low pressure system will begin to enter the region from the
west-southwest Saturday afternoon bringing in the next round of non-
VFR conditions. Ceilings will drop with the incoming system from
west to east and non-VFR conditions with ceilings and snow potential
is expected after 20Z on Sunday in the western terminals and by 04Z
Monday for the eastern terminals. Winds will also begin the back out
of the south with the incoming low and will increase to around 10
knots and gusting around 20 knots. For the KCLE TAF, near the end of
the TAF period, around 08Z Monday, winds will continue to increase
out of the south-southeast at 15-20 knots and gusting around 30
knots. Expect similar winds at the majority of terminals across the
region by that timeframe as well.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected as a low pressure system
traverses the region Sunday through early Monday. There is potential
for prolonged non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania due to lake effect snow/rain showers. Non-VFR
conditions will be possible again with another low pressure system
on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to gradually ease on Lake Erie tonight through
early Saturday, finally enough to end all of the Small Craft
Advisories by Sunday morning. The window of winds less than 10kts
will be brief, however, as the next strong low pressure system will
be moving in from the west by Saturday night. Offshore winds
increase to 30kts by Sunday morning, and will approach gale force
out of the southwest Sunday afternoon. Low water levels may become
an issue again Sunday as well given the strong winds along the fetch
of the lake. Open water wave heights 10-14ft possible, and
nearshore, 6-10ft possible late Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Winds down below 10kts out of the southwest Monday as wave
heights come down below 2ft by Monday evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for OHZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for OHZ006>008-017-018-027.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...26