149
FXUS61 KCLE 162251
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
651 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...00z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
Northeast Ohio through 8 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms will continue through the area through
this evening. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts and
heavy rain that could produce localized flooding. A severe
thunderstorm watch is out for portions of Northeast Ohio until 8
PM.

2) Showers and storms will return on Wednesday with a strong
cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A line of thunderstorms is along the Interstate 77 corridor in
Northeast Ohio and will continue east over the next couple of
hours. These storms are being generated thanks to an MCV moving
over Lake Erie and taking advantage of an air mass with some
decent instability with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and some modest
shear with 20-30 kts of 0-3km shear. Several counties of
interior Northeast Ohio are in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until
8 PM with this line moving through and warnings will be issued
as needed. The other threat with this line will be heavy
rainfall. Areas along US 30 are receiving 1 to 1.5 inches of
rain in just 30-45 minutes, which may cause some localized
flooding issues. Luckily, the line of showers and storms are
progressive enough to limit the overall threat of flash
flooding.

For tonight, some residual showers are possible here and there
as the backside of the MCV exits the region, there is some
slight recovery after these afternoon storms, the cold front
crosses the forecast area, and the mid-level shortwave moves
through the region. Any additional thunderstorm development is
low and would remain sub- severe. The front will slow over the
southern portion of the area tonight into Monday and some
isolated to scattered activity will be possible in the south
before fully exiting the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A cold front is expected to move through the forecast area on
Wednesday, bringing showers and storms to the area. There will
be less moisture and instability across the region compared to
recent days and largely expect activity to remain generic and
sub-severe. Behind the cold front, there will be a firm pattern
change to more of a late summer/early fall air mass with high
temperatures in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The main message for aviation weather will some variable flight
category conditions through the evening and overnight. Outside
of any scattered convection this evening, VFR conditions are
expected. Within scattered convection, MVFR to brief IFR
conditions may be possible. Going forward into the overnight,
some MVFR light fog and MVFR low stratus development is
possible at all TAF sites. Some IFR ceilings low stratus is
possible at MFD, YNG, ERI, and CAK. MVFR to VFR ceilings are
expected late Monday morning through the afternoon. Winds will
start out from the west or southwest this evening 5 to 10 knots.
Winds will become northwest to northerly 5 to 10 knots late
tonight through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds ahead of a cold front are starting southwest to west
around 10 knots. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold
front overnight with 10 to 15 kts of onshore flow expected.
Waves may bump up a bit, but incoming high pressure will quickly
taper off the northwest flow to 10 kts or less on Monday and
allow for any waves to diminish. High pressure will move south
of the lake for Tuesday and light southerly flow will return to
the lake. A cold front will approach and cross the lake for
Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and storms and winds
shifting from southerly to northwesterly. Cool high pressure
will be in place for Thursday and Friday and maintain light
north to northeast flow across the basin through the end of the
week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Sefcovic