079
FXUS61 KCLE 172345
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
645 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure system will move east through the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday, followed by high pressure for Wednesday into
Thursday. Another low pressure system will track east through
the Ohio Valley as a cold front drops south across the Great
Lakes on Friday. High pressure will gradually build in from the
west by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be the potential for
a brief period of wintry precipitation, including snow and
sleet, Tuesday morning, particularly across Northwest and North
Ohio.

A weakening low pressure system will track east through the Ohio
Valley late tonight into Tuesday as high pressure gradually
exits east towards the Mid-Atlantic. A modest southwest LLJ will
increase warm air advection into the area Tuesday morning,
overrunning a generally cold near-surface air mass across the
region with temperatures hovering around freezing. Wet snow
will initially be the primary precipitation mode, though a brief
period of sleet is possible as snow transitions to rain from
southwest to northeast through Tuesday morning. Depending on
precipitation intensity, can`t rule out some slick spots for the
morning commute. Precipitation will transition to all rain by
early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the short term period will be the potential for
widespread rain showers Thursday night as an upper-level trough
slides east across the Upper Great Lakes region. This will be a
"warm" system with rain being the sole precipitation type as
temperatures will in the low to mid-50s. Otherwise, weak high
pressure will lead to mainly quiet and dry weather on Wednesday,
though residual cloud cover may stick around for much of the
day, limiting highs to the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Apart from uncertainty on precipitation chances for Friday, the
long term period appears mainly quiet as high pressure is
favored to build across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys by the
weekend and perhaps into early next week. For Friday, a cold
front is expected to sag south through the Great Lakes behind
the Thursday night system and stall across the Ohio Valley.
Another area of low pressure is expected to track east along
this front on Friday, though the latest guidance suggests the
best chances for rain will be along and south of the US-30
corridor. Seasonable temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s are
expected for the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Conditions are starting VFR across the board with clear skies
for the western two-thirds of the airspace and a ceiling around
4500 ft in lake effect clouds in far NE OH and NW PA. High
cirrus will filter in from the west as the lake effect clouds
push east overnight. This will then be followed with a mid-level
cloud deck with the arrival of the low pressure system for
Tuesday. Around daybreak on Tuesday, precipitation will enter
from the west and spread through the terminals through late
morning. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with
precipitation type for Tuesday. Earlier arriving precipitation
would allow for more frozen precipitation in the form of snow,
sleet, or even isolated freezing rain. Later arriving
precipitation would suggest more rain, especially as surface
temperatures recover to above freezing. With there being some
spread, it is tough to put more than a RA/SN mix for the TAFs
this evening, as there just is high bust potential for any sleet
or freezing rain. However, this will need to be monitored
overnight in future aviation forecast issuances. With the onset
of precipitation, non-VFR ceilings will be quick to enter and a
dive to MVFR and likely IFR will be the trend for Tuesday
afternoon. Rain will continue across the region for the bulk of
the day but may become more scattered by late afternoon before
moving out of the region. MVFR/IFR will still remain favored as
the rain departs.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected to continue through Wednesday.
Possible return of non- VFR Thursday night into Friday with the
next cold front and low pressure passing to our south.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds diminish this evening and tonight with high pressure moving
into the southern Great Lakes. Wave heights down to less than a foot
later tonight into Tuesday. As low pressure moves south of Lake
Erie, winds become northeasterly for Tuesday night into Wednesday at
10-20kts, with western basin wave heights increasing to 1-3ft. High
pressure returns for Wednesday night into Thursday with wave heights
less than a foot, then becoming southwesterly 10-20kts Thursday
night. A cold front comes through Friday, winds become northwesterly
10-20kts, and wave heights 2-4ft from Avon Point eastward.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...26