392
FXUS61 KCLE 031741
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1241 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) An upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern
continuing into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure track east into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region. Moisture transport from the Gulf will increase area
PWATs on Wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th
percentile for early November at regional sites. Widespread
showers are expected to enter from the west Wednesday morning
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west
to east in the evening. Can`t rule out a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow as SBCAPE values may briefly increase to
a few hundred J/kg in the morning and early afternoon. Severe
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability
amount. Overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of US-30.
Additionally, a 40-50 LLJ will move overhead tomorrow and allow
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 MPH.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There will likely be a window of dry weather on Thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south Thursday
night into Friday. This secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of Lake Erie through the weekend
and into early next week. Cooler temperatures expected this
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Areawide VFR will continue through the remainder of the day
today and overnight tonight. Breezy southerly to southwesterly
winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots will continue this
afternoon before diminishing to 8-12 knots this evening. A cold
front will approach terminals from the west tomorrow morning
bringing areawide showers to the region. Anticipate for ceilings
to reduce to MVFR with patchy IFR as the front arrives. A strong
LLJ will move overhead during the late morning and afternoon
hours which will allow for southerly winds to increase to 12-18
knots sustained with gusts 20-30 knots possible across TAF
sites. LLWS may briefly be possible across western TAF sites
given the 40-50 knot southerly/southwesterly LLJ, but opted to
leave out of the TAF with this issuance.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across Lake Erie today
into tomorrow morning. A 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead
the Lower Great Lakes during the day tomorrow which may
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the
higher wind speeds. Winds shift southwesterly behind a cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday before diminishing to 10-15
knots by Thursday evening. Winds turn northwesterly in the wake
of a trough Friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally
between 10 and 20 knots. Conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo     Mansfield     Cleveland     Akron     Youngstown    Erie
11-03   77(1987)    76(2015)      79(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)
11-04   80(2003)    77(2015)      79(2003)    76(2015)    77(2003)    78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13