570
FXUS61 KCLE 190727
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
327 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this morning. A strong
upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Ohio
Valley this weekend into early next week and bring a heat wave
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will track from southwestern Michigan northeastward
towards Lake Huron and into southern Ontario, deepening as it does
so, and taking a cold front west to east across the CWA towards
morning into Thursday. In the meantime, PVA in the southwesterly
flow aloft and lingering outlfow boundaries from the previous
convection will keep the threat of continues activity for the rest
of the overnight and after dawn. The cold front will provide the
forcing for convective initiation after 15Z for more of the eastern
two thirds of the area, then turning it over to the trailing
500/700mb trough axis.The eastern half of the CWA will be
characterized by a bit more instability in the form of surface based
CAPE with a bit greater vertical extent than the wester zones of the
CWA where it is more limited and shallower. The whole area will have
steering flow in the 30-35kt range and a layer of dry air for a few
hours above 600mb enhancing a wind threat. Again, further west in
the CWA, the drier air aloft is not as much of an issue, but cannot
rule a marginal severe threat for the eastern half of the CWA where
the parameters are more favorable. Once the trough aloft moves
through after 00Z Friday the forecast becomes quite a bit drier, but
some low end POPs lingering due to a few weak areas of PVA in the
now northwest flow pushing a few showers through the region.

Temperatures will get knocked back a few degrees for the afternoon
high temperatures today which will be primarily in the 70s. This
will represent the last of some seasonally cool air before heat
begins to build in. Friday will still be comfortable, but will back
into the 80s except for northwest PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level ridge builds across the eastern CONUS Friday night
and will persist through the short term period. Continued southerly
flow will advect warm and moist air from the Gulf leading to a
period of prolonged heat and humidity. Maintained some low-end PoPs
along the lakeshore Friday night into Saturday morning as a
weakening MCS dives southeast from Lower Michigan towards the
eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise expect dry conditions through the
short term.  Overnight lows Friday night settle in the mid to upper
60s ahead of prolonged heat. High temperatures will rise into the
upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday coupled with dew points in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Warmer on Sunday with highs in the lower 90s
areawide. Heat index values will rise into mid 90s Saturday and
upper 90s to 100+F by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
at the end of the short term and start of long term. Little
overnight relief is expected as overnight lows settle in the low to
mid 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid to upper ridge will continue across the region through the long
term period. Showers and thunderstorms may return Tuesday afternoon
and Wednesday as a system approaches from the west. High
temperatures in the mid 90s with max heat indices in the upper 90s
to 100+F will persist through mid-week. Because these conditions are
expected to occur over multiple days, in addition to minimal
overnight relief, nearly all of our forecast area will experience
Extreme HeatRisk. NWS Experimental HeatRisk provides a forecast of
the potential level of risk for heat-related impacts to occur. An
Extreme Risk (Level 4 of 4) signifies that heat will likely impact
anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. In order
to lessen heat-related impacts, drink plenty of fluids, stay in AC,
wear light-weight and light colored clothing, and check in on your
neighbors.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A cold front comes through tonight through the first half of
Thursday, quickly followed by an upper level trough.

There is going to be lingering showers/thunderstorms across the
region for much of the forecast period, so the TAF is focused
primarily on narrowing the best timing window for prevailing or
TEMPO convective issues. This is generally seen to be the 15-21Z
time frame on Thursday, but quick amendments may have to be made
if any overnight convection affects specific terminals. In the
meantime, southwest winds on the increase again overnight
gusting 20-30kts, mainly over the western half of Ohio, and
ceilings should eventually work their way down to the MVFR range
well into the Thursday afternoon hours be fore lifting and
scattering.

Outlook...Current predictions favor fair weather and VFR this
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Maintained small craft advisories across Lake Erie as southwesterly
winds continue to increase to 20-25 knots through this morning.
Given the offshore component of the winds the highest wave heights
will remain confined to the open waters which should keep swim risk
at a moderate level through today. A brief window of 10-15 knot
northwesterly winds is expected this afternoon and evening before
winds return southwesterly tonight. Southwesterly winds 5-15 knots
should persist through early next week with a brief window of 15-20
knot winds possible on Sunday as a warm front lifts north across
Lake Erie.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie

06-22   99(1988)       95(1988)       98(1988)       97(1988)       97(1933)       94(1988)
06-23   96(1911)       91(1964)       94(1948)       94(1923)       94(1943)       92(1964)
06-24   95(2005)       93(1933)       96(1952)       95(1923)       93(1952)       92(1952)
06-25   104(1988)      101(1988)      104(1988)      100(1988)      99(1988)       100(1988)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...13
CLIMATE...