643
FXUS61 KCLE 142008
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
408 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will continue
to move east and exit the area by around 7 PM. Damaging wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph are the greatest concern.

2) A stronger low pressure system will develop and move east through
the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Some stronger storms
and gusty winds are possible.

3) A compact system will move east through the Central Great Lakes
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms
into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Currently tracking the evolution of strong to severe storms
across the area this afternoon, with perhaps the most potent
storms still located just north of the area over Lake Erie.
Believe this specific storm cluster, located generally north of
Lorain/Cuyahoga counties over Lake Erie, will be the most
capable of producing 70+ mph winds over the next couple of hours
as it eventually enters portions of Lake, Ashtabula, and the
Northwest Pennsylvania counties. MLCAPE values continue to hover
around 1000 J/kg, though the synoptic wind field still remains
favorable for organized thunderstorms, particularly across far
Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania where 700 mb flow is
nearing 40 to 45 knots ahead of the advancing cold front.
Damaging wind gusts still appear to be the primary hazard with
any stronger storms, though a brief embedded spin-up or two
remain possible as well, particularly closer to the OH/PA
border.

A quite chilly air mass will arrive behind the front tonight into
Monday morning, with 850 mb temperatures falling to around 4 degrees
C. A lingering trough behind the front combined with the chilly air
mass may result in some scattered lake-enhanced rain showers across
portions of Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania into Monday
morning. Can`t rule out some spots across Northwest Pennsylvania
struggling to reach the 60-degree mark on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Continuing to monitor the potential for a highly-anomalous low
pressure system to develop and move east through the Great Lakes
late Wednesday into Thursday. Model guidance is beginning to
come into agreement for mid to upper-level trough placement and
strength, though specific surface features still remain
uncertain. Low-level moisture is forecast to quickly increase
ahead of the advancing surface low Wednesday night, with dew
points climbing into the 60s.

At this time, it appears the most favorable CAPE/shear overlap
(reflected by ENS probs of MUCAPE > 1000 J/jg) and the highest
potential for severe weather Wednesday night into Thursday will
reside just to the south and southwest of the area, though lowering
this threshold to 500 J/kg does yield some concern further north
into our area. Will continue to monitor trends for this potentially
significant system.

In addition to the threat of strong to severe storms, we may also
have to contend with the strong associated wind field of this
system, with probs increasing (30 to 50%) for wind gusts to exceed
45 mph, especially Thursday afternoon.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
A compact shortwave will move east through the Central Great Lakes
late Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms
moving east into the area Tuesday evening and overnight. At this
time, the greatest risk for any stronger storms appears to be just
west of the I-75 corridor, with wind gusts being the primary
concern, though will continue to monitor trends for any impacts to
our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
At 17:20Z/Sun, a surface cold front had just swept SE`ward
across KTOL. This front will continue moving SE`ward and should
exit the rest of our region by 22Z/Sun. Behind the front, a
surface high pressure ridge builds from the northern Great
Plains and vicinity through 18Z/Mon. Ahead of the front, our
regional surface winds trend SW`erly around 10 to 15 knots and
will gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times. Behind the front, winds
veer to W`erly to NW`erly around 10 to 15 knots and will gust
up to 20 knots at times, especially prior to 00Z/Mon.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead of the surface front, while a line of showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the surface cold front. Brief MVFR
to LIFR and torrential rainfall will accompany these showers and
storms. These showers and especially storms will likely produce
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 55 knots. Some of
these storms may produce hail up to half dollar-size. Behind the
surface cold front, widespread MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings and
periods of steady to heavy rain with VFR to MVFR visibility,
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front, are
expected to persist for several hours before exiting generally
E`ward. Isolated thunderstorms may be embedded in this
widespread rain.

Once the widespread rain exits our region, primarily dry weather
and VFR are expected through 18Z/Mon. However, scattered to
broken lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 2.5kft to 4kft
AGL are expected to stream generally SE`ward from Lake Erie
through about mid-morning on Mon. These stratocumuli should
produce light to occasionally moderate rain showers through
~13Z/Mon and cause visibility to vary between VFR and MVFR.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
forecast Tuesday afternoon through this Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front continues to sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie through
this late afternoon. Behind the front, another high pressure
ridge builds from the northern Great Plains through Monday.
Primarily SW`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots ahead of the cold
front veer to NW`erly behind the front. These NW`erly winds may
flirt with 20 knots at times through the first couple of
predawn hours of Monday morning. The NW`erly winds then ease
slightly to around 10 to 15 knots and back gradually to SW`erly
later Monday morning through sunset Monday evening as the high
pressure ridge axis moves E`ward across Lake Erie. Waves of
mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers are
possible behind the cold front through the first few predawn
hours of Monday morning. Refrained from issuing a Small Craft
Advisory since forecast conditions are marginal.

S`erly to SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or
less are expected Monday night through Wednesday as the
aforementioned ridge exits E`ward. However, these winds may
flirt with 20 knots at times Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Thus, waves up to 4 to 5 feet are possible at times in
open U.S. waters Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
During Wednesday night through Thursday, a potent low should
wobble ENE`ward from the Upper MS Valley to southern QC. In
response, a warm front should sweep NE`ward across Lake Erie
Wednesday night and be accompanied by SSE`erly to SW`erly winds
freshening to around 20 to 30 knots. These winds may flirt with
35 knots at times. Waves should build to as large as 5 to 10
feet with occasional 12 footers. The projected low track should
allow a cold front to sweep E`ward across Lake Erie on
Thursday. The cold front passage should cause winds around 20 to
30 knots, perhaps flirting with 35 knots at times, to veer to
W`erly. Waves as large as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12
footers are forecast. Based on latest official forecast trends,
confidence remains high in the eventual need for a Small Craft
Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement. Will continue to monitor
official forecast trends for a potential gale and the possible
eventual need for a Low Water Advisory.

Behind the cold front, a high pressure ridge should build slowly
from the north-central United States and vicinity through
Friday. Accordingly, W`erly to NW`erly winds should ease
gradually to around 10 to 15 knots and waves should subside to
3 feet or less by daybreak Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka